中國央行開年降準，釋放1.5萬億人民幣

HONG KONG — With the Chinese economy beginning the new year on a decidedly downbeat note, Beijing’s leaders are injecting more than $200 billion into its financial system to ease lending.

香港——隨著中國經(jīng)濟以明顯悲觀的基調(diào)開始新的一年，北京領導人向金融系統(tǒng)注入2000多億美元來放寬信貸。

The People’s Bank of China on Friday said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves by one percentage point. The move will essentially free up 1.5 trillion Chinese renminbi, or about $218 billion, for an economy experiencing weaker factory output and consumer confidence while it weathers a trade war with the United States.

中國人民銀行上周五表示，將把銀行存款準備金率下調(diào)1個百分點。此舉將向中國經(jīng)濟釋放1.5萬億元人民幣(約合2180億美元)，在經(jīng)歷與美國的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)之際，中國的工業(yè)產(chǎn)出和消費者信心正在減弱。

The cut is not unusual for China’s central bank, but it comes amid uncertainty about how Beijing will manage slower growth. China’s slowdown has contributed to shaky global financial markets. On Wednesday, underscoring the broad impact, Apple unexpectedly cut its sales forecast for its latest quarter, citing disappointing iPhone sales in China, once one of its most vibrant markets.

此次降準對中國央行來說并非不同尋常，但目前北京如何應對經(jīng)濟增長放緩仍存在不確定性。中國經(jīng)濟放緩已導致全球金融市場動蕩。周三，蘋果公司出人意料地下調(diào)了最新一個季度的銷售預期，原因是iPhone在中國的銷售令人失望，這凸顯出中國的廣泛影響。中國曾是蘋果最活躍的市場之一。

Chinese officials pledged last month to step up support of the economy, and they are facing new urgency, said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist for Capital Economics, a research firm. Retail and auto sales are down, and China’s latest manufacturing data showed factory activity shrank in December. While monthly data released on Friday showed improvement in China’s services sector, the overall picture has become more concerning.

研究公司凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的首席亞洲經(jīng)濟學家馬克·威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示，中國官員上月承諾將加大對經(jīng)濟的支持力度，他們正面臨新的緊迫形勢。零售和汽車銷售下降，中國最新制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，12月份工廠活動出現(xiàn)萎縮。盡管上周五發(fā)布的月度數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國的服務業(yè)有所改善，但整體形勢變得更加令人擔憂。

“The consistently downbeat tone of the data released since then will only have underlined the strains the economy is facing,” Mr. Williams said.

“從那以后發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)持續(xù)低迷，只會突顯出經(jīng)濟面臨的壓力，”威廉姆斯說。

This month, China will report economic growth figures for the last three months of 2018. While China’s headline growth figure is widely seen as unreliable, it dipped in the third quarter to 6.5 percent, its lowest level of expansion since the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

本月，中國將公布2018年最后三個月的經(jīng)濟增長數(shù)據(jù)。盡管中國的主要經(jīng)濟增長數(shù)據(jù)被普遍認為不可靠，但中國經(jīng)濟在第三季度的增長率降至6.5%，為全球金融危機以來的最低水平。

The move by the central bank on Friday appeared to be part of a coordinated effort. Earlier in the day, Li Keqiang, the country’s premier, said China would move to shore up the economy through measures that included cutting bank reserve requirement ratios and lowering taxes.

中國央行上周五的舉措似乎是一項協(xié)調(diào)努力的一部分。當天早些時候，中國總理李克強表示，中國將采取措施提振經(jīng)濟，包括下調(diào)銀行存款準備金率和減稅。

The central bank said it would cut its reserve requirement ratio — a measure of how much cash from deposits that lenders need to keep — by half a percentage point on Jan. 15 and another half a percentage point by Jan. 25.

中國央行表示，將于1月15日將存款準備金率下調(diào)0.5個百分點，并在1月25日前再下調(diào)0.5個百分點。存款準備金率是貸方需要從存款中保留多少現(xiàn)金的衡量指標。

The move will give banks more leeway to lend money, though analysts noted the net amount of money flowing into the system would be roughly half the $218 billion headline figure, as the central bank shuts off other sources of funds. It also comes roughly a month before China’s Lunar New Year holiday, when Chinese households sometimes strain the monetary system by spending more and by giving cash as gifts.

此舉將給銀行提供更多的放貸空間，不過分析人士指出，隨著央行關閉其他資金來源，流入金融體系的資金凈額將約為2180億美元的一半。而且一個月左右之后，將是中國的春節(jié)假期，屆時中國家庭會增加支出和贈送現(xiàn)金作為禮物，有時會給貨幣體系造成壓力。

China has traditionally used its state-controlled banking system to flood the economy with money when growth slows. Last year, China cut the reserve ratio four times. But economists, small businesses and many others say the mechanism shovels money into big, inefficient companies or into investment bubbles instead of toward the smaller entrepreneurs who need it more.

中國傳統(tǒng)上會利用其國有銀行體系，在經(jīng)濟增長放緩時向經(jīng)濟注入大量資金。去年，中國四次下調(diào)存款準備金率。但經(jīng)濟學家、小企業(yè)和其他許多人說，這一機制將資金注入效率低下的大公司或投資泡沫，而不是流向更需要資金的小企業(yè)。

The cut “will be good for curbing the economic downturn and solving the financing difficulties of enterprises,” said Yu Yongding, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

此次降準“對抑制經(jīng)濟下滑，解決企業(yè)融資困難有好處”，中國社會科學院經(jīng)濟學家余永定表示。

“But this is just one policy,” Mr. Yu added, saying it risks pouring money into real estate and the stock market, which would do little to solve the economy’s problems. “We need a lot of other policies to cooperate.”

“但是這僅僅是一個政策，”余永定說。他表示，這可能會導致資金大量涌入房地產(chǎn)和股市，而這對解決經(jīng)濟問題幾乎毫無幫助。“我們需要很多其他政策加以配合。”

For several weeks, economists and analysts have speculated that officials could move to push a hefty stimulus package that would give the flagging economy a shot in the arm. But such bold moves have become increasingly difficult for the Chinese government, which is contending with a huge debt load accumulated over the last decade to spur growth.

數(shù)周來，經(jīng)濟學家和分析人士一直在猜測，官員們可能會采取行動，推出一項龐大的刺激計劃，給低迷的經(jīng)濟打一劑強心針。但對中國政府來說，這些大膽舉措已變得越來越困難，目前它正與過去10年為刺激經(jīng)濟增長而累積的巨額債務作斗爭。

Still, many analysts took the move as a sign that China’s leader would be proactive in heading off any worsening slump.

盡管如此，許多分析人士仍將此舉視為一個信號，表明中國領導人將積極采取行動，防止經(jīng)濟進一步惡化。

“The central bank has made it clear that this wasn’t ‘releasing the floodwaters’ by providing a huge stimulus comparable to that introduced in 2009, but it is clear that they are redoubling efforts to stabilize the economy and the currency,” Geoffrey Yu, the head of the British investment office of the Swiss bank UBS, said in an email.

“央行已經(jīng)明確表示，這不是通過提供2009年金融危機時候的那種大刺激來‘泄洪’，但很明顯，他們加倍努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟和貨幣，”瑞士銀行瑞銀(UBS)的英國投資辦公室主管余修遠(Geoffrey Yu)在電子郵件中說。

“This swift action supports our view that there won’t be a sharp deceleration in the Chinese economy this year and that fears of a major global slowdown are overdone,” Mr. Yu added.

“這一迅速的行動支持了我們的觀點，即中國經(jīng)濟今年不會大幅減速，對全球經(jīng)濟大幅放緩的擔憂有些過頭了，”余修遠補充說。