中國(guó)三季度GDP增6.5%，創(chuàng)近10年來(lái)新低

Sputtering growth, soaring debt and an escalating trade war with the United States are increasingly weighing on China’s economy.

增長(zhǎng)乏力、債務(wù)飆升，還有正在升級(jí)的中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，這些都在拖累中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)。

China’s government on Friday reported that the economy grew by 6.5 percent over the three months that ended in September compared with a year ago. While fast by global standards, the pace is China’s slowest since 2009, during the depths of the global financial crisis.

中國(guó)政府周五公布第三季度經(jīng)濟(jì)同比僅增長(zhǎng)6.5%。盡管以國(guó)際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)看仍屬快速，但該數(shù)字是中國(guó)自2009年全球深陷金融危機(jī)以來(lái)最慢的增長(zhǎng)。

China has reported growth figures over the past two years that painted a picture of an economy that is gamely chugging along, despite the country’s lingering problems and widespread doubts over the reliability of official numbers. A different narrative has emerged this year, one of a slowing economy that is forcing Beijing to make some difficult choices.

從過(guò)去兩年公布的增長(zhǎng)數(shù)字看到的，是一個(gè)頑強(qiáng)穩(wěn)步前進(jìn)的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)，盡管這個(gè)國(guó)家仍有未解決的問(wèn)題，且外界對(duì)官方數(shù)字可信度普遍存有疑問(wèn)。今年出現(xiàn)了另一種敘事，稱(chēng)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩正在迫使北京作出艱難抉擇。

Chinese shoppers are spending less and downgrading their purchases, like staying home instead of going out, or drinking beer instead of cocktails. Wages are stagnant. Investment in splashy infrastructure projects has dropped sharply.

中國(guó)購(gòu)物者花錢(qián)變少了，并且在降低購(gòu)買(mǎi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，例如待在家里不出去玩，或是喝啤酒而不是雞尾酒。工資水平出現(xiàn)停滯。對(duì)引人矚目的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的投資大幅下降。

China’s stock market is firmly in the red — it has fallen by 30 percent since a peak in January — making it one of the world’s worst performing. The currency has weakened and is hovering near a 10-year low against the American dollar. Companies are complaining that they cannot get money from lenders, and a handful are defaulting on their loans.

中國(guó)股市自一月達(dá)到巔峰以來(lái)已下跌30%，目前深陷熊市，為全球表現(xiàn)最差的市場(chǎng)之一。人民幣已經(jīng)走弱，兌美元匯率徘徊在近10年最低點(diǎn)。公司都在抱怨無(wú)法獲得貸款，還有一些公司出現(xiàn)債務(wù)違約的情況。

All of this is before factoring in China’s intensifying trade war with the United States. Friday’s report is the first since the two countries began to impose tit-for-tat tariffs starting in early July.

這些都是在中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)愈演愈烈前就發(fā)生的。周五的數(shù)字是兩國(guó)七月初開(kāi)始針?shù)h相對(duì)地互征關(guān)稅后首次公布的數(shù)據(jù)。

So far it has only marginally dented China’s $12 trillion economy. Chinese officials point to figures that show overall trade remains robust despite the conflict. Still, the impact may take some months to show.

迄今為止，關(guān)稅只對(duì)中國(guó)12萬(wàn)億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)造成了輕微影響。中國(guó)官員指出，盡管有這場(chǎng)沖突，有數(shù)據(jù)顯示整體貿(mào)易仍十分強(qiáng)健。但貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的影響可能需要一些時(shí)日才能顯露出來(lái)。

On Friday, officials blamed “an extremely complicated and severe international situation” for the lower-than-expected growth figures but also sought to lift confidence with statements of support from the central bank and market regulators. 周五，官員們將低于預(yù)期的增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)歸咎于“異常復(fù)雜嚴(yán)峻的國(guó)際形勢(shì)”，但也力圖用央行及市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的支持來(lái)提振信心。

In a wide-ranging interview with state media that was posted later midday, Liu He, China’s economic czar, said that trade frictions with the United States had cause “impact on the stock market, but the psychological effect is bigger than the actual impact, frankly speaking.”

中國(guó)官媒在午后發(fā)表了一份內(nèi)容廣泛的采訪(fǎng)，中國(guó)“經(jīng)濟(jì)沙皇”劉鶴表示，中美貿(mào)易摩擦“對(duì)市場(chǎng)也造成了影響，但坦率地說(shuō)，心理影響大于實(shí)際影響。”

He added that the United States and China were in contact, without elaborating. Trade discussions were put on hold in September after the Chinese declined an invitation by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to hold fresh talks.

他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，中美兩國(guó)正在進(jìn)行接觸，但沒(méi)有詳細(xì)說(shuō)明。在中國(guó)拒絕了美國(guó)財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)史蒂文·馬努欽(Steven Mnuchin)進(jìn)行新談判的邀請(qǐng)后，兩國(guó)貿(mào)易談判于九月暫停。

These are some takeaways from the report.

報(bào)告中有一些要點(diǎn)。

For China, revving up the growth engine is complicated

對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，加快增長(zhǎng)引擎的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)很復(fù)雜

During periods of economic slowdown, China has turned to local governments to spur growth through big infrastructure and development projects. That approach juiced growth but saddled key parts of the economy with debt.

經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩期間，中國(guó)曾轉(zhuǎn)向地方政府，通過(guò)大型基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)及開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目刺激增長(zhǎng)。這一舉措促進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，但卻讓中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)鍵部分背上債務(wù)。

The exact numbers aren’t clear, but experts agree that the debt load is vast. In a report this week, S&P Global estimated that China’s local governments are carrying as much as $6 trillion in shadowy debt off the books. That’s equivalent to roughly three-fifths of China’s entire economic output. Analysts at the ratings firm called it “an alarming level.”

具體的數(shù)字尚不清楚，但專(zhuān)家一致認(rèn)為，債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)十分龐大。在本周的一份報(bào)告中，標(biāo)普全球(S&P Global)估算中國(guó)地方政府所負(fù)擔(dān)的不在賬面上的影子債務(wù)高達(dá)六萬(wàn)億美元。這個(gè)數(shù)字相當(dāng)于中國(guó)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)量約五分之三。該評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)的分析師稱(chēng)其已經(jīng)達(dá)到了“值得警惕的水平”。

China has been trying to throttle back the lending, but that has hurt growth. Growth in spending on highways, rail and public facilities has fallen to a record low this year. From the start of the year through the end of August, the growth in infrastructure spending fell to 4.2 percent compared with the same period last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

中國(guó)一直在努力控制借貸，但這種做法影響到了增長(zhǎng)。高速公路、鐵路及公共設(shè)施方面的支出增長(zhǎng)今年已降至歷史最低。根據(jù)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，自今年年初到八月底，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)方面的支出增長(zhǎng)與去年同期相比下降至4.2%。

Now, Beijing appears to be rethinking its austerity efforts. Officials are beginning to encourage new investment. To reduce the bill, they are asking the private sector to help out. This week it announced that 1,222 infrastructure projects worth $362 billion would be financed by private companies.

如今，北京似乎在對(duì)其財(cái)政緊縮措施作重新考慮。官員們開(kāi)始鼓勵(lì)新投資。為了減少費(fèi)用，他們要求私營(yíng)部門(mén)出手相助。本周，中國(guó)宣布將有1222個(gè)價(jià)值3620億美元的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目由私營(yíng)企業(yè)提供資金。

The health of the Chinese consumer is critical 中國(guó)消費(fèi)者的健康程度至關(guān)重要

China’s expanding middle class and its increasingly expensive consumption habits have been an important pillar for growth as China moves away from its dependence on exports and big investment projects.

隨著中國(guó)擺脫對(duì)出口及大型投資項(xiàng)目的依賴(lài)，中國(guó)不斷壯大的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)及其愈發(fā)昂貴的消費(fèi)習(xí)慣成為了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要支柱。

Retail sales stayed buoyant as Chinese consumers continued to buy cars, appliances, smartphones and other goods. The strong numbers will help officials in Beijing to argue that the trade war has left China’s domestic economy largely untouched.

隨著中國(guó)消費(fèi)者持續(xù)買(mǎi)入汽車(chē)、電器、智能手機(jī)及其他商品，零售業(yè)銷(xiāo)售保持上漲態(tài)勢(shì)。強(qiáng)勁的數(shù)字有助于北京的官員提出貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)沒(méi)對(duì)中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成什么影響的觀點(diǎn)。

But economists warn that the overall rosy picture could change. For example, car sales began to slow in September, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家警告，這整個(gè)美好景象可能會(huì)發(fā)生改變。例如，根據(jù)全國(guó)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)研究會(huì)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)售開(kāi)始在九月放緩。

“A month from now may be just the time retailers start to buckle,” wrote analysts at China Beige Book International. The group, which surveys big businesses in China, said retailers reported the worst payroll health of any sector in recent months.

“從現(xiàn)在起的一個(gè)月后，可能就是零售商們感受到壓力的時(shí)候了，”中國(guó)褐皮書(shū)國(guó)際公司(China Beige Book International)一名分析師寫(xiě)道。這家會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)大型企業(yè)進(jìn)行問(wèn)卷調(diào)查的公司說(shuō)，零售商們表示出現(xiàn)了近幾個(gè)月來(lái)所有經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)中最糟糕的薪資情況。

Retail numbers could also fall as Beijing cracks down on non-bank lenders and peer-to-peer lending platforms, which have been a source of credit for many consumers in recent years. 隨著北京打壓非銀行貸款方及P2P放貸平臺(tái)，零售數(shù)據(jù)可能繼續(xù)下降。這些平臺(tái)是近年來(lái)許多消費(fèi)者的信貸來(lái)源。

The trade war could prove a drag

事實(shí)證明，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)可能會(huì)是一個(gè)拖累

In September, the United States put tariffs on $200 billion worth of products coming from China. President Trump has given no indication that he will back down any time soon.

九月，美國(guó)對(duì)來(lái)自中國(guó)價(jià)值2000億美元的商品加征關(guān)稅。特朗普總統(tǒng)還沒(méi)有給出任何會(huì)在近期讓步的表示。

Chinese export figures for September jumped 14.5 percent compared with a year earlier. That unlikely number probably isn’t a sign that trade is doing well. Some exporters attributed the rise to American companies ramping up orders before new tariffs make their purchases more expensive.

中國(guó)九月的出口數(shù)據(jù)同比躍升至14.5%。這個(gè)不太可能的數(shù)字可能并非是貿(mào)易情況良好的跡象。一些出口商將數(shù)據(jù)增長(zhǎng)的原因歸結(jié)于美國(guó)公司在新關(guān)稅導(dǎo)致采購(gòu)變得更昂貴前，提升了下單量。

“We know customers tried to clear as much finished product in transit to the U.S. as possible before the deadline,” said Peter Levesque, the managing director of Modern Terminals in Hong Kong. That could happen again, as American importers try to bypass the next deadline of Jan. 1 for a 25 percent tariff on Chinese goods.

“我們知道在截止日期前，顧客盡可能多地讓運(yùn)輸?shù)矫绹?guó)的成品清關(guān)，”香港現(xiàn)代貨箱碼頭(Modern Terminals)總經(jīng)理李國(guó)維(Peter Levesque)表示。隨著美國(guó)進(jìn)口商試圖繞過(guò)1月1日下一個(gè)對(duì)中國(guó)商品加征25%關(guān)稅的最后期限，這種情況可能會(huì)再次出現(xiàn)。

While much of the impact of the trade war has yet to be felt, experts say it won’t take long for a slowing economy to start to feel the pinch, especially as officials grapple with other economic problems. The trade war could shave as much as 1.6 percent off China’s economic growth figures next year, according to a recent report from the International Monetary Fund.

盡管人們還沒(méi)感受到貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的大部分影響，專(zhuān)家表示要不了多久，放緩的經(jīng)濟(jì)就會(huì)開(kāi)始感到壓力，尤其是在官員們努力應(yīng)付其他經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題的時(shí)候。根據(jù)近期一份來(lái)自國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的報(bào)告，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)可能會(huì)在明年減少中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)多達(dá)1.6%。

“We’re not going to be able to see it in the numbers that are provided and that will just add to the uncertainty,” said Paul Gruenwald, global chief economist at S&P Global Ratings. “It’s going to be hard to pinpoint any pressure because we don’t have enough data.”

“我們不會(huì)在中國(guó)提供的數(shù)據(jù)里看到這些，而這只會(huì)增加不確定性，”標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾的全球首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家保羅·格倫瓦爾德(Paul Gruenwald)表示。“因?yàn)槲覀儧](méi)有足夠的數(shù)據(jù)，要描述對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)構(gòu)成的壓力會(huì)很難。”

But, he added, “there is definitely pessimism. It’s just a question of how much it will slow things down.” 但他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，

“悲觀情緒肯定是存在的。問(wèn)題只是它會(huì)讓經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩多少。”

Officials look to shore up confidence

官員們希望能提振信心

Just before releasing the economic growth figures on Friday morning, the websites for China’s central bank, insurance and securities regulators posted news media interviews with senior officials giving support to the market. The chairman of the securities regulator went as far as to appeal to certain market participants to buy stocks.

周五早間公布經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)前，中國(guó)銀監(jiān)會(huì)、保監(jiān)會(huì)及證監(jiān)會(huì)的網(wǎng)站均發(fā)布了新聞媒體對(duì)高級(jí)官員的采訪(fǎng)，以對(duì)市場(chǎng)表示支持。證監(jiān)會(huì)主席甚至呼吁某些市場(chǎng)參與者購(gòu)買(mǎi)股票。

“We encourage private equity funds to purchase shares of listed companies and participate in mergers and acquisitions of listed companies,” said Liu Shiyu, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

“我們鼓勵(lì)私募股權(quán)基金通過(guò)參與非公開(kāi)發(fā)行、協(xié)議轉(zhuǎn)讓、大宗交易等方式，購(gòu)買(mǎi)已上市公司股票，”證監(jiān)會(huì)主席劉士余表示。

Earlier this month, the People’s Bank of China pulled a financial lever that effectively pumped $175 billion into the economy and the market.

本月早些時(shí)候，中國(guó)人民銀行拉動(dòng)了一個(gè)金融杠桿，有效地為經(jīng)濟(jì)和市場(chǎng)注入1750億美元。