貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)加劇在華外企壓力，但離開中國并不容易

PHNOM PENH, Cambodia — The worsening trade war between the United States and China has intensified pressure on companies to leave China and set up factories in places like Cambodia, a verdant country of 16 million people with low wages and high hopes.

柬埔寨金邊——美中之間日益惡化的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)加劇了企業(yè)離開中國的壓力，它們紛紛到其他地方開廠，比如柬埔寨——一個青山綠水的國家，擁有1600萬收入不高但滿懷希望的人民。

But anybody who moves here may have to deal with the water buffalo.

但任何搬到這里的人都可能要對付水牛。

Huffing, snorting and in no hurry to move, the big-horned bovines occasionally meander across the Khmer-American Friendship Highway, the dusty, 140-mile route linking Phnom Penh’s factories with the port in the coastal city of Sihanoukville. They are not the only potential obstacles. At quitting time, factory workers heading home on foot and motorbikes clog the road.

長著長角的牛噴著鼻息，不緊不慢，不時蜿蜒穿過高棉-美國友誼高速公路，這條塵土飛揚的公路有140英里長，把金邊的工廠和沿海城市西哈努克城的港口連接起來。這些牛不是唯一潛在的障礙。在下班時間，步行回家的工廠工人和摩托車堵塞了道路。

For factory owners on deadline, those crowded roads can mean frustrating delays.

對于要趕工的工廠主，擁擠的道路可能意味著令人沮喪的延誤。

“Where Cambodia sits now is where China was 25 years ago,” said Piet Holten, who makes the microfiber cloths and bags for sport and fashion sunglass brands like Oakley. To get his sportswear products from his Phnom Penh factory to market, he flies them using DHL.

“柬埔寨現(xiàn)在所處的正是中國25年前的位置，”皮特·霍爾滕(Piet Holten)說，他為奧克利(Oakley)等運動和時尚太陽鏡品牌生產(chǎn)超細纖維布和包。為了把它的運動服飾產(chǎn)品從金邊工廠運往市場，他選擇了DHL空運。

President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products, which expanded to an additional $200 billion worth of goods on Monday, are prompting many companies to rethink their supply chains. As tariffs begin to make China look more expensive, many companies are considering cheaper places to make their products, like Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh and Ethiopia. Already, companies with significant American business like Steve Madden, the fashion designer, and Puma, the German sports brand, have said they will look to shift production out of China.

特朗普總統(tǒng)對中國產(chǎn)品征收的關稅于周一擴大到價值2000億美元的商品，這促使許多公司重新考慮其供應鏈。由于關稅，在中國生產(chǎn)看上去更加昂貴，許多公司正考慮在更便宜的地點生產(chǎn)其產(chǎn)品，如越南、柬埔寨、孟加拉國和埃塞俄比亞。時裝設計師史蒂夫·馬登(Steve Madden)和德國體育品牌彪馬(Puma)等在美國擁有重要業(yè)務的公司已經(jīng)表示，他們希望將生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到中國之外。

But China will be hard to quit. From zippers and rivets on jackets and jeans to the minerals used in iPhones, China makes or processes many of the ingredients that go into today’s consumer goods. It has a dependable source of workers who know how to hold down factory jobs. It has reliable roads and rail lines connecting suppliers to assembly plants to ports.

但要退出中國沒那么容易。從夾克和牛仔褲上的拉鏈和鉚釘，到iPhone中使用的礦物質(zhì)，如今消費品中有許多成分是中國制造或加工的。它擁有可靠的工人來源，他們知道如何從事工廠工作。它擁有可靠的公路和鐵路線，將供應商與裝配廠連接到港口。

Countries like Vietnam and Cambodia, by contrast, lack China’s vast supplier base and dependable roads. More workers have to be trained. Many companies have to start from scratch.

相比之下，越南和柬埔寨等國家缺乏中國龐大的供應商基礎和可靠的道路。必須培訓更多的工人。許多公司必須從頭開始。

“When I came here in the beginning, it was a nightmare,” said Elli Bobrovizki, who runs a factory in Phnom Penh that makes Bloch ballet shoes.

“最初來到這里的時候，簡直是一場噩夢，”在金邊經(jīng)營一家生產(chǎn)Bloch芭蕾舞鞋的工廠的埃利·博布羅維茲基(Elli Bobrovizki)說。

Getting the pink ballet slippers and black jazz shoes out to places like the United States takes at least a day or two longer than it would in China, he said. To reach his factory, a visitor has to travel down a bumpy dirt road.

他說，將粉紅色的芭蕾舞鞋和黑色爵士舞鞋送到美國這樣的地方，需要的時間比中國至少要多出一兩天。別人要來他的工廠，必須沿著崎嶇不平的土路行駛。

Inside, hundreds of workers cut leather from Brazil, then glue and carefully pinch, gather and hammer it into soles. The work could be partly automated, but the labor is cheap.

在工廠里，數(shù)百名工人切割著從巴西運來的皮革，然后小心地把它們膠合在一起，再敲打成鞋底。這項工作可以部分實現(xiàn)自動化，但勞動力非常便宜。

One day a few years ago Mr. Bobrovizki arrived at his factory to find several unions had locked it. Negotiations took weeks. In Cambodia some unions are backed by the party of Hun Sen, the prime minister, adding to political risks for foreign companies.

幾年前的一天，博布羅維茲基來到他的工廠，發(fā)現(xiàn)幾個工會關閉了它。談判耗時數(shù)周。在柬埔寨，一些工會得到了總理洪森的黨的支持，這增加了外國公司的政治風險。

“I lost half a million dollars in those two weeks that they blocked my gate,” Mr. Bobrovizki said.

博布羅維茲基說：“在這兩個星期里，他們關閉了我的工廠，讓我損失了50萬美元。”

Companies are not looking to leave China just because of the trade war. Average wages have risen by about one-third in recent years, according to official data. The average Chinese factory worker makes roughly $10,000 a year, the official data shows. By contrast, the minimum wage for Cambodian garment workers amounts to about one-fifth of that. But rising tariffs, and the prospect of more on the horizon, add to the urgency.

這些公司打算離開中國，并不只是由于貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國近年來平均工資增長了約三分之一。官方數(shù)據(jù)還顯示，中國普通工廠工人每年平均收入大約為一萬美元。相比之下，柬埔寨服裝工人的最低工資約為其五分之一。但是，不斷上升的關稅，以及還會進一步增加的前景，加劇了這種緊迫性。

“People are desperate to get out of China,” said Spencer Fung of Li & Fung, a go-between for Western companies and factories in developing countries.

“人們迫切希望離開中國，”利豐公司的馮裕鈞(Spencer Fung)說，該公司是西方公司和發(fā)展中國家工廠的中間人。

One American company recently told a supplier with a factory in Phnom Penh that it wants to take its China production down to zero as soon as possible in order to avoid tariffs, said Bradley Gordon, a lawyer who advises multinational companies in Cambodia. That Phnom Penh factory plans to hire 1,000 more workers in the next month and employ nearly 10,000 workers by next year.

最近，一家美國公司告訴在金邊設有工廠的供應商，為了避免關稅，它希望盡快將其中國產(chǎn)量降至零，為柬埔寨跨國公司提供咨詢服務的律師布拉德利·戈登(Bradley Gordon)說。金邊工廠計劃在下個月再招聘1000名工人，到明年工人總數(shù)達到將近一萬。

Still, China remains an efficient place to do business. Its logistics network is vast and quick-moving. Over the past three decades, China has built 4.7 million kilometers, or about 2.9 million miles, of highways. It has 13 of the world’s 50 largest ports, and three of the top five.

中國仍然是做生意的高效之地。那里的物流網(wǎng)絡龐大而快速。在過去的30年中，中國建造了470萬公里的高速公路。它擁有世界上50個最大的港口中的13個，以及前五個最大港口中的三個。

China’s sheer manufacturing capabilities are unrivaled. One measure of its output, called manufacturing value added, shows that China makes roughly as much as the United States and Japan combined.

僅以制造能力而言，中國是無與倫比的。其產(chǎn)量的一個衡量標準，所謂制造業(yè)增加值，顯示中國的產(chǎn)量大致相當于美國與日本之和。

“The entire supply chain is based in China, so if we were to move, we would still have to procure components in China, and then export them somewhere else,” said Aaron Emigh, co-founder of Brilliant, an American start-up that makes smart-home devices. Brilliant is releasing its product just as the Trump administration’s tariffs take effect.

“整個供應鏈都以中國為基地，所以如果我們搬遷，我們?nèi)匀恍枰谥袊少徚悴考?，然后將其出口到其他地方?rdquo;美國生產(chǎn)智能家居設備的初創(chuàng)公司Brilliant的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人阿倫·埃邁(Aaron Emigh)說。該公司剛好將在特朗普政府的關稅生效時發(fā)布其產(chǎn)品。

“Moving out of China is not purely a matter of cost, but of possibility,” he added. “離開中國不僅僅是成本問題，還是個可能性的問題，”他補充道。

Brilliant’s devices have more than 700 components, most of which are sourced in China. The country offers the best manufacturing options for some of Brilliant’s most technical needs, like printing circuit boards, injection-molded plastics, screens and modules.

Brilliant的設備有700多個組件，其中大部分來自中國。該國為Brilliant的一些技術要求最高的部分提供了最佳選擇，如印刷電路板、注塑塑料、屏幕和模塊。

Some companies believe they have to look for alternatives no matter how appealing China can be.

一些公司認為，無論中國有多吸引人，他們都必須尋找替代方案。

Inventec, a Taiwanese electronics manufacturer of laptops and devices for companies like HP, Toshiba and Acer, has drawn up contingency plans to move China production to Taiwan, the Czech Republic, Mexico and Houston, according to Ada Chang, a spokeswoman.

英業(yè)達是為惠普、東芝和宏碁等公司提供筆記本電腦和設備的臺灣電子產(chǎn)品制造商，據(jù)其發(fā)言人艾達·張(Ada Chang)稱，它已制定應急計劃，將在中國生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品轉(zhuǎn)移到臺灣、捷克共和國、墨西哥和休斯敦。

Moving the entire supply chain out of China would be too complicated, she said. But Inventec could assemble the final product in other places so the “country of origin” certificate would not say China, she said.

她表示，將整個供應鏈從中國轉(zhuǎn)移出來將過于復雜。但她說，英業(yè)達可以在其他地方組裝最終產(chǎn)品，因此“原產(chǎn)國”證書上不會寫中國。

Peter Baum knows well the challenges of operating in a country like Cambodia. An owner of Baum-Essex, a company that makes umbrellas for Costco and cotton bags for Walmart in contracted factories in Vietnam and Cambodia, he gets frustrated when he has to turn to multiple countries for the parts and material he needs because it means more opportunity for delays.

彼得·鮑姆(Peter Baum)非常清楚在柬埔寨這樣的國家經(jīng)營的挑戰(zhàn)。他是鮑姆-埃塞克斯(Baum-Essex)公司的老板，該公司在越南和柬埔寨的代工廠為好市多(Costco)生產(chǎn)雨傘，為沃爾瑪生產(chǎn)棉布袋，不得不到多個國家尋找他需要的零件和材料讓他感到很頭疼，因為這意味著更多延誤的可能性。

“It is the worst nightmare known to man,” Mr. Baum said. He recently finished an order for umbrellas for Costco. The wood handles from Italy were delayed. The polyester from Taiwan was the wrong pattern.

“這是我所知道的最糟糕的噩夢，”鮑姆說。他最近剛剛為好市多完成了雨傘訂單。來自意大利的木柄延誤了。來自臺灣的聚酯面料圖案是錯的。

“I probably lost a couple of hundred thousand on the transaction,” he said.

“我可能在交易中損失了幾十萬，”他說。

Cambodia’s lack of development in many areas adds its own complications.

柬埔寨在許多地區(qū)不夠發(fā)達，這增加了問題的復雜性。

Mr. Holten, the manufacturer whose company makes products for Oakley, decided to open a factory in Cambodia in 2010. His competitors thought he was crazy, he said, because China was still cheap. “I saw the writing on the wall,” said Mr. Holten, whose company, Pactics, still makes cloth bags for Burberry in China.

為奧克利生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品的霍爾滕在2010年決定在柬埔寨開設工廠。他說，他的競爭對手認為他很瘋狂，因為在中國生產(chǎn)仍然很便宜?；魻栯f：“我看到了跡象，”他的公司Pactics仍然為在中國為博柏利(Burberry)制作布袋。

Still, it was not easy, he said. There was no infrastructure, no power and no space appropriate to rent. Pactics had to build its own factory with a water purification system, solar panels and a separate power generator. The project took a year and cost $960,000.

不過，他說這并不容易。這里沒有基礎設施、沒有電力、也沒有合適的空間可租。Pactics必須自己建造工廠，配備水凈化系統(tǒng)、太陽能電池板和獨立的發(fā)電機。工程耗時一年，耗資96萬美元。

It was worth it, Mr. Holten said. “If we were still in China,” he said, “we’d be out of business.”

霍爾滕說，這是值得的。“如果還在中國，”他說，“我們現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)要倒閉了。”

Transition in Cambodia has been slow. Paradoxically, one source of change may be China itself, as it looks to win political favor in Southeast Asia. During an official visit this year, Li Keqiang, China’s premier, pledged to build a new expressway from Phnom Penh to Sihanoukville to supplement the Khmer-American Friendship Highway.

柬埔寨的過渡進展緩慢。矛盾的是，一個變化的來源可能是來自中國本身，因為它似乎在東南亞謀求政治支持。在今年的一次正式訪問中，中國總理李克強承諾將建設一條從金邊到西哈努克的高速公路，作為高棉-美國友誼公路的補充。

More foreign companies have called or emailed Ken Loo, secretary general at the Garment Manufacturers Association in Cambodia, in recent months about doing business there. His advice: Be realistic.

最近幾個月，越來越多的外國公司致電或通過電子郵件向柬埔寨服裝制造商協(xié)會秘書長肯·盧(Ken Loo)發(fā)送電子郵件。他的建議是：要面對現(xiàn)實。

“It’s not like going into the shop to buy something and you just go to the next shop,” Mr. Loo said. Starting a factory from scratch, he said, “takes months, if not a year and a half.”

“這不像是去商店買東西，只要去下一家商店買就可以，”盧說。從零開始辦工廠，“需要幾個月甚至一年半時間。”