“經濟史上規(guī)模比較大的貿易戰(zhàn)”將如何影響世界

It’s official: The United States and China are in a trade war after the Trump administration imposed tariffs at 12:01 a.m. Friday on $34 billion worth of Chinese products.
正式開始了：特朗普政府在周五凌晨12點01分對價值340億美元的中國產品征收關稅后，美中兩國進入了貿易戰(zhàn)。

Beijing immediately retaliated with its own penalties. The Chinese government is targeting a range of American products with tariffs, including pork, soybeans and automobiles.
北京立即采取報復措施。中國政府針對包括豬肉、大豆和汽車在內的一系列美國產品征收了關稅。

The prospect of rising costs for imports is expected to impact businesses and consumers alike. The United States has also imposed tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, solar panels and washing machines from countries like Canada, Mexico, the European Union and Japan.
美國還對來自加拿大、墨西哥、歐盟和日本等國的進口鋼鋁、太陽能電池板和洗衣機征收關稅。預計進口成本上升將對企業(yè)和消費者產生影響。

For now, it is unclear how — or whether — the trade war might conclude. On Friday, China’s, Ministry of Commerce said the United States “has launched the biggest trade war in economic history so far,” and President Trump on Thursday continued to threaten Beijing with escalating tariffs on as much as $450 billion worth of Chinese goods.

目前尚不清楚貿易戰(zhàn)可能會如何結束——或者是否會結束。周五，中國商務部表示，美國“發(fā)動了迄今為止經濟史上規(guī)模最大的貿易戰(zhàn)”，特朗普總統(tǒng)周四繼續(xù)威脅北京，對中國商品征收的關稅將逐步升級，最終對價值高達4500億美元的商品征收關稅。

With its own tariffs on American goods, China would join other countries that have retaliated against Mr. Trump’s trade measures, bringing the total value of affected American exports to about $75 billion by the end of the week. That is still a small fraction of the $1.55 trillion of goods the United States exported last year, but in some industries, the pain is becoming intense.
憑借對美國商品征收的關稅，中國將加入其他國家的行列，對特朗普的貿易措施進行報復，令受影響的美國出口總值于本周末達到約750億美元。這依然只相當于美國去年出口的1.55萬億美元商品的一小部分，但在某些行業(yè)，這種痛苦正變得越來越劇烈。

The tariffs on China, the world’s largest manufacturing hub, affect a much larger share of products and a greater percentage of companies that rely on global supply chains, potentially hurting American companies even more than the Chinese firms the Trump administration is targeting. Research by Mary Lovely and Yang Liang of Syracuse University shows that in the field of computer and electronics products, for example, non-Chinese multinational corporations operating in China supply 87 percent of the products that will be affected by tariffs, while Chinese firms send only 13 percent.
中國是全球最大的制造業(yè)中心，對其征收的關稅影響了更大的產品份額，以及更多依賴全球供應鏈的公司，這對美國公司的傷害，甚至可能超過特朗普政府所針對的中國公司。例如，雪城大學(Syracuse University)的瑪麗·洛夫利(Mary Lovely)和梁揚(音)的研究表明，在計算機和電子產品領域，受關稅影響的產品有87%由在中國運營的非中國跨國企業(yè)提供，而中國企業(yè)只提供其中的13%。

A 2011 study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco showed that, for every dollar spent on an item labeled “Made in China,” 55 cents went for services produced in the United States. The risks that a trade war posed to the economy was a substantial topic of discussion when Fed policymakers met three weeks ago, according to minutes of the meeting released Thursday.
舊金山聯邦儲備銀行2011年的一項研究顯示，在標有“中國制造”的物品上，每消費一美元，就會有55美分流入美國生產的服務中。周四公布的會議紀要顯示，三周前，美聯儲政策制定者會面時，貿易戰(zhàn)對經濟構成的風險是一個重要議題。

Most Fed officials at the table “noted that uncertainty and risks had intensified,” and that tariffs and other trade measures “could have negative effects on business sentiment and investment spending.”
大多數出席會議的美聯儲官員“注意到不確定性和風險加劇了”，并認為關稅和其他貿易措施“可能對商業(yè)信心和投資支出產生負面影響”。

As of Friday morning, companies like Husco International, a Wisconsin-based manufacturing company that makes parts for companies like Ford, General Motors, Caterpillar and John Deere, now face a 25 percent increase on a variety of parts imported from China. Austin Ramirez, Husco International’s chief executive, said that increase would immediately put him and other American manufacturers at a disadvantage to competitors abroad.“The people it helps most of all are my competitors in Germany and Japan, who also have large parts of their supply chain in Asia but don’t have these tariffs,” he said. The Trump administration drafted its initial tariff list to spare consumers, and many of the products that American families purchase from China, like flat-screen TVs and shoes, are not directly hit on Friday. But American companies that depend on Chinese products are expected to feel the pinch, given the tariffs focus heavily on the kind of intermediate inputs and capital equipment that businesses purchase and ultimately sell both in the United States and abroad.

“Of course I want China to fight back,” said Cathy Yuan, 32, who was shopping at an upscale Shanghai supermarket on Friday. “We are defending our rights as a nation.”
“我當然支持中國反擊，”32歲的凱茜·袁說，周五，她在一家上海高檔超市購物。“這是為了我們國家的權利。”