中國(guó)股市跌至熊市，金融體系面臨挑戰(zhàn)

SHANGHAI — Months of struggling with economic problems at home and bickering with President Trump over trade are starting to take their toll on China’s financial health.

上海——在國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題上持續(xù)數(shù)月的斗爭(zhēng)，以及同特朗普總統(tǒng)在貿(mào)易方面的爭(zhēng)吵，對(duì)中國(guó)的金融健康已經(jīng)開(kāi)始造成損害。

China’s stock market has now fallen close to levels not seen since a crash shocked global investors three years ago. An elite Chinese think tank affiliated with the government warned this week that the chances of a financial panic had risen significantly, shaking markets even more.

中國(guó)股市現(xiàn)在的跌落水平是自三年前震驚全球投資者的暴跌后所未見(jiàn)的。中國(guó)政府下屬的一個(gè)精英智庫(kù)于本周警告，出現(xiàn)金融恐慌的可能性顯著上升，這進(jìn)一步震撼了市場(chǎng)。

Chinese officials are trying to help factories deal with American tariffs by weakening the value of the country’s currency. That makes Chinese goods more competitive abroad, but it also gives investors inside and outside China a reason to take their money out of the country. And it offers Mr. Trump an opportunity to criticize Beijing — in the past, he has railed against the country for weakening its currency.

中國(guó)官員正試圖通過(guò)令人民幣貶值來(lái)幫助工廠(chǎng)應(yīng)對(duì)美國(guó)關(guān)稅。這會(huì)令中國(guó)產(chǎn)品在海外具有更強(qiáng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，但同時(shí)也會(huì)讓中國(guó)內(nèi)外的投資者有理由將資金帶出中國(guó)。它還為特朗普提供了一個(gè)批評(píng)北京的機(jī)會(huì)——過(guò)去，他曾指責(zé)中國(guó)故意令人民幣貶值。

The chances of a financial collapse that could shake the world are slim. The Chinese government has vast sums of money it can tap in the event of a crisis. And there are steep financial barriers to keep money from fleeing the country. While investors have ways around the barriers, they limit the possibility that such a flight could bring one of the world’s most important growth engines to a halt.

目前尚不太可能發(fā)生震撼整個(gè)世界的金融崩潰。中國(guó)政府擁有大量資金在應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)時(shí)動(dòng)用。中國(guó)還有極高的金融壁壘，以防止資金逃離該國(guó)。雖然投資者有辦法繞過(guò)障礙，但它們限制了資金逃離導(dǎo)致這個(gè)全球最重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)引擎停滯的可能性。

Nevertheless, China faces some increasingly serious economic challenges. It is trying to tackle its considerable debt problems without starving its economy of the money that keeps growth chugging along. The president’s tariffs so far have been quite small in the grand scheme of things, but they add to China’s troubles. The next wave of tariffs, set at 25 percent, threatens to cover at least a tenth of China’s exports to the United States, and more could follow.

不管怎樣，中國(guó)面臨著日益嚴(yán)峻的經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)。它正在努力解決嚴(yán)重的債務(wù)問(wèn)題，同時(shí)努力讓經(jīng)濟(jì)擁有足夠維持增長(zhǎng)的資金。迄今為止，特朗普總統(tǒng)的關(guān)稅在這個(gè)宏偉計(jì)劃中只占很小一部分，但它們?cè)黾恿酥袊?guó)的麻煩。下一波關(guān)稅定為25%，威脅至少占中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口的十分之一，其后可能還會(huì)覆蓋更多。

China’s stock markets reflect the uncertainty. The Chinese stock market as of this week is down more than 20 percent from its January peak, making it a bear market. The country’s main stock index lost nearly 1 percent on Thursday.

中國(guó)股市反映了這種不確定性。截至本周，中國(guó)股市從1月的高點(diǎn)下跌了逾20%，成為熊市。該國(guó)主要股指周四下跌近1%。

“You don’t know what Trump is going to do next,” said Hong Hao, the chief market strategist in the international unit of the Bank of Communications, one of China’s biggest banks. “Normally at this level, there should be a technical rebound.”

“你不知道特朗普接下來(lái)要做什么，”中國(guó)最大的銀行之一交通銀行國(guó)際部門(mén)首席市場(chǎng)策略師洪灝說(shuō)。“通常在這個(gè)水平上，應(yīng)該會(huì)有技術(shù)性的反彈。”

China’s moves with its currency reflect its difficult balancing act. The Chinese central bank has guided the currency steadily lower against the dollar, particularly in the past two weeks, as the likelihood of further American tariffs on Chinese goods has increased. The currency is down more than 5 percent from its peak in February.

中國(guó)的貨幣措施反映了其艱難的平衡舉措。由于美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)商品進(jìn)一步征收關(guān)稅的可能性有所增加，中國(guó)央行開(kāi)始引導(dǎo)人民幣對(duì)美元穩(wěn)步下跌，尤其是在過(guò)去兩周內(nèi)。自2月到達(dá)峰值以來(lái)，人民幣跌幅超過(guò)5%。

One indication of investor sentiment about China is the small amount of China’s currency that is traded outside its borders. China keeps the value of its currency in an iron grip, but investors in places like Hong Kong can trade it more freely.

在中國(guó)境外交易的少量中國(guó)貨幣是一個(gè)跡象，從中可以看出投資者對(duì)中國(guó)的感覺(jué)。中國(guó)嚴(yán)格控制人民幣價(jià)值，但香港等地的投資者可以更自由地交易。

The value of the renminbi has fallen somewhat faster lately in the less-regulated Hong Kong market than in Shanghai trading. A widening gap between the two markets has long been a sign that investors are worried about the currency.

最近，在監(jiān)管較少的香港市場(chǎng)，人民幣貶值的速度比在上海交易所要快。兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)之間日益擴(kuò)大的差距長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直是投資者對(duì)人民幣感到擔(dān)心的信號(hào)。

China faces still more obstacles. The United States Federal Reserve has begun raising short-term interest rates. That increases the cost of borrowing money for Americans and, given the vast influence of the American economy, for the rest of the world. Such rate increases have caused unpleasant economic surprises worldwide in the past, which could hurt China if growth slows in the markets where it sells its goods.

中國(guó)還面臨更多障礙。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(The United States Federal Reserve)已開(kāi)始提高短期利率。這增加了美國(guó)人借貸的成本，鑒于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的巨大影響力，也增加了世界其他地區(qū)的借貸成本。此類(lèi)利率上漲在過(guò)去曾經(jīng)造成全球范圍內(nèi)的惡性經(jīng)濟(jì)意外，如果中國(guó)銷(xiāo)售市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)放緩，可能也會(huì)令其受到傷害。

As if investors did not already have enough to worry about in China, a deeply pessimistic internal government analysis has widely circulated on social media this week. The analysis was written by Li Yang, the chairman of the National Institution of Finance and Development, a Beijing-based research group, and by three other economists.

好像生怕投資者對(duì)中國(guó)的擔(dān)憂(yōu)還不夠多，本周，一個(gè)非常悲觀(guān)的政府內(nèi)部分析在社交媒體上廣為傳播。該分析報(bào)告由位于北京的研究機(jī)構(gòu)國(guó)家金融與發(fā)展實(shí)驗(yàn)室理事長(zhǎng)李揚(yáng)和其他三位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家撰寫(xiě)。

A person who picked up the phone at the think tank said that the document was genuine and that its release had not been intended.

一位代表該智庫(kù)接聽(tīng)電話(huà)的人士表示，這份報(bào)告是真的，而且它的公開(kāi)是個(gè)意外。

The document said that with “the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and the long-term and highly uncertain trade conflicts between China and the United States, we believe that in China there is currently a high probability of financial panic.”

該文件稱(chēng)，“加之美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息以及中美貿(mào)易沖突呈現(xiàn)高度不確定性，我們認(rèn)為目前中國(guó)就有可能出現(xiàn)金融恐慌。”

Other economists cautioned that the analysis should not necessarily be treated as representing a consensus view within the Chinese government.

其他經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家告誡說(shuō)，該分析不應(yīng)該被視為代表中國(guó)政府的共識(shí)。

Mr. Li has a reputation as being more bearish during financial crises than other Chinese government economists. He has also used periods of financial stress in China to oppose economic reformers who seek the opening up of the country’s financial system to greater competition and more international flows of money, Mr. Hong said.

與中國(guó)政府其他的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家相比，李揚(yáng)以在金融危機(jī)期間對(duì)市場(chǎng)持更為悲觀(guān)的態(tài)度而著稱(chēng)。洪灝說(shuō)，他還曾利用中國(guó)的金融緊張時(shí)期，反對(duì)那些謀求開(kāi)放國(guó)家金融體系、加大競(jìng)爭(zhēng)、加大資金國(guó)際流動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)改革者。

The document leaked this week said that the way to prevent a financial panic was to create a separate stabilization fund to prop up the currency, rather than selling dollars and shrinking the money supply. Such a move could help insulate China’s economy, because reducing the money supply makes it harder for families and businesses to borrow for purchases and investments, from buying an apartment to building a factory.

本周泄露的這份報(bào)告稱(chēng)，防止金融恐慌的方式是創(chuàng)建一個(gè)獨(dú)立的穩(wěn)定基金來(lái)支撐人民幣，而不是出售美元和減少貨幣供應(yīng)。此舉可能有助于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)免受沖擊，因?yàn)闇p少貨幣供應(yīng)量會(huì)使得家庭和企業(yè)難以貸款購(gòu)買(mǎi)和投資，從買(mǎi)房到建廠(chǎng)莫不如此。

By contrast, many economic reformers say that China would benefit from more openness. The closed Chinese financial system tends to steer money to state-owned enterprises instead of smaller and more entrepreneurial private sector businesses.

相反，許多經(jīng)濟(jì)改革者表示中國(guó)會(huì)從更多開(kāi)放中受益。封閉的中國(guó)金融體系傾向于將資金引向國(guó)有企業(yè)，而不是規(guī)模更小、更具創(chuàng)業(yè)精神的私營(yíng)企業(yè)。

Predictions by the report’s authors aren’t gospel, said Qian Qimin, the director of wealth management research at Shenwan Securities, a Shanghai brokerage.

上海的證券交易所申銀萬(wàn)國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)研究部主管錢(qián)啟敏表示，報(bào)告作者的預(yù)測(cè)并非金科玉律。

“They consider problems from a theoretical perspective and they look forward and alert government to the worst consequences, which is understandable,” he said.

“他們主要是從理論角度考慮，有一些前瞻性，看得嚴(yán)重一些做出了預(yù)警，是可以理解的，”他說(shuō)。