溫哥華房價狂飆，但為何連房主都高興不起來？

VANCOUVER, British Columbia — Between multimillion-dollar tear-downs, blocks full of backyard cottages and towering condominiums that are sold and resold several times before they are even built, there is no shortage of anecdotes about this city’s housing frenzy.

不列顛哥倫比亞省溫哥華——價值數(shù)百萬美元的待拆房、滿是后院小屋的街區(qū)，以及建成之前就已經(jīng)被多次出售和轉售的高聳公寓樓，這個城市一點也不缺少關于住房狂熱的軼事。

Here is a new one: Vancouver is so expensive that politicians want to tax its real estate market into submission, and many homeowners — who will lose money if home prices fall — think it’s the best idea they’ve heard in years.

這里有一個新的：溫哥華如此昂貴，以至于政客想通過征稅來整頓房地產(chǎn)市場，很多房主——如果房價下跌，他們會損失財產(chǎn)——也認為，這是他們在很多年來聽到的最好的主意。

“I would like to see a correction to sober up this whole place,” said Rob Welsh, a retired airplane mechanic who lives in a Vancouver suburb. Mr. Welsh bought his house in 2000 and has become a paper millionaire based on its appreciation. It makes him more anxious than happy.

住在溫哥華郊區(qū)的退休飛機機械師羅布·韋爾斯(Rob Welsh)說：“我希望有一場糾正，讓整個地方清醒過來。”他于2000年買了自己的房子，因為升值而成為了紙面上的百萬富翁。比起快樂，這更讓他感到焦慮。

“If I got to lose 200 or 300 grand to keep the kids and the future of this place, so be it,” he said.

“如果我得失去20萬或30萬美元來保護這個地方的孩子和它的未來，那就這樣做吧，”他說。

Like many cities around the world, Vancouver is grappling with punishing housing costs that have pushed out large swaths of residents — and are causing distress among young adults who can’t afford rent today and take it for granted that they will never own a home.

和世界各地的許多城市一樣，溫哥華也在努力應對把大量居民趕出市中心的高昂房價，它給那些如今無力支付房租、認為自己永遠都不會擁有住房的年輕人帶來了苦惱。

Part of the reason is the attraction of Vancouver itself, and not just among Canadians. Between its natural beauty, its temperate climate and Canada’s liberal immigration policies, the city has become a magnet for foreign buyers, especially from China.

造成這種情況的部分原因是溫哥華本身的吸引力，而且不只加拿大人有這樣的感受。由于自然美景、溫和的氣候和加拿大寬松的移民政策，這座城市已經(jīng)成為吸引外國買家，尤其是中國買家的磁石。

Many places, in both Canada and the United States, have tried remedies to the squeeze: tenant protections, housing subsidies and steps to enable developers to build higher and faster so that more housing will come online. But few have gone as far as British Columbia.

在加拿大和美國的很多地方試圖緩解住房緊張：保護租戶、住房補貼，以及讓開發(fā)商房子越建越高、越修越快，從而讓更多的房子上線。但不列顛哥倫比亞省的做法無出其右。

Last year, in a provincial election almost entirely about housing costs, citizens voted out the center-right B.C. Liberal Party, which had run British Columbia for 16 years, and brought in a government led by the left-of-center B.C. New Democratic Party. Since then, the New Democrats have not only tried to increase the housing supply, but have also proposed a slew of measures that aim to curb housing demand and chase away overseas buyers.

去年，在一場幾乎完全圍繞住房成本的省級選舉中，公民投票否決了領導不列顛哥倫比亞省16年的中間偏右的不列顛哥倫比亞自由黨(B.C. Liberal Party)，讓中間偏左的不列顛哥倫比亞新民主黨(B.C. New Democratic Part)上臺。自那時起，新民主黨不僅試圖提高住房供應量，還提出了一系列旨在抑制住房需求、驅趕外國買家的措施。

The New Democrats raised British Columbia’s foreign-buyer tax to 20 percent of a home’s purchase price, from 15 percent. (Ontario has a 15 percent tax.) In addition, the party plans to impose higher property taxes on second homes, on families whose primary breadwinner’s earnings come from money abroad and on homes valued at more than 3 million Canadian dollars ($2.3 million). Vancouver has passed a number of local measures, including a tax on empty homes.

新民主黨把大不列顛哥倫比亞的外國買家稅從房產(chǎn)價格的15%提高到了20%(安大略省的稅率為15%)。此外，該黨計劃對第二套房，養(yǎng)家者的主要收入來自國外的家庭，以及價值超過300萬加元的房產(chǎn)征收更高的房產(chǎn)稅。溫哥華當?shù)赝ㄟ^了一系列措施，包括對空置房征稅。

“There’s no question that many of the measures we are bringing in are bold, but we felt they were critical if we were really going to address this crisis,” Carole James, British Columbia’s finance minister, said in an interview.

“毫無疑問我們推出的很多措施都很大膽，但我們覺得如果真的要解決這場危機，它們是關鍵，”不列顛哥倫比亞省財政部長卡羅爾·詹姆斯(Carole James)在一次采訪中說。

This would seem politically perilous. Two-thirds of Canadians own their homes, roughly the same share as in the United States. And Canadians, like Americans, expect to make money from the investment. Yet a number of polls, and interviews with homeowners like Mr. Welsh, suggest that Vancouverites are so shocked at the price levels that even homeowners want the market to cool.

這在政治上似乎是危險的。三分之二的加拿大人擁有自己的房子，與美國的比例大致相同。加拿大人和美國人一樣，也希望從這項投資中獲利。然而，一些民調和對上述的威爾斯等房主的采訪表明，溫哥華人對房價水平感到非常震驚，以至于房主也希望市場降溫。

In 2016, the nonprofit Angus Reid Institute in Vancouver found that roughly two-thirds of residents in the metropolitan area wanted home prices to fall, including half of homeowners. More startling was that one in five homeowners in the survey expressed a desire to see home prices fall by 30 percent or more.

2016年，溫哥華的非盈利組織安格斯·里德學院(Angus Reid Institute)發(fā)現(xiàn)，這個大都會地區(qū)幾乎三分之二的居民希望房價下降，包括一半的房屋擁有者。更讓人震驚的是，調查中有五分之一的房主表示，希望看到房價下跌30%甚至更多。

No doubt, many voters would think twice about that opinion if home prices actually crashed. Still, respondents “were clearly reacting from a place of deep anxiety, even desperation, about their own or their loved ones’ ability to access the housing market,” said Shachi Kurl, executive director of Angus Reid.

毫無疑問，如果房價真的暴跌，許多選民會重新考慮這個觀點。盡管如此，受訪者的反應“顯然是由于他們對自己，乃至他們所關愛的人進入房市的能力存在深深的焦慮，甚至是絕望，”安格斯·里德執(zhí)行董事沙奇·庫爾(Shachi Kurl)說。

And so far, people like what they see from the new government’s attempts to rein in the market: In a separate Angus Reid poll this year, large majorities of British Columbians supported the housing measures proposed by the New Democratic government.

到目前為止，新政府控制房市的嘗試是人們樂于見到的：在安格斯·里德今年的另一項調查中，大多數(shù)不列顛哥倫比亞省人支持新民主黨政府提出的住房措施。

“Unbeknownst to many people in the local population, Vancouver has been sold as a subsidized resort town and retirement community to the world,” said Josh Gordon, a political science professor at Simon Fraser University here. “We are now seeing the culmination of that dynamic.”

“當?shù)卦S多人并不知道，溫哥華已經(jīng)作為一個受資助的度假村和退休社區(qū)向全世界出售，”西蒙·弗雷澤大學(Simon Fraser University)政治學教授喬什·戈登(Josh Gordon)說。“我們正在目睹這種趨勢的頂點。”

Vancouver, surrounded by snow-capped mountains and wide maritime views, has never been especially cheap. But home and condominium prices are up by close to 16 percent over the past year, and about 60 percent over the past three, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

溫哥華被白雪皚皚的山脈和廣闊的海景包圍，房價從未特別便宜。根據(jù)大溫哥華區(qū)房地產(chǎn)委員會(Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver)的數(shù)據(jù)，過去一年，家庭和公寓住宅價格上漲近16%，過去三年上漲約60%。

What makes these gains so remarkable is that unlike Silicon Valley, London or New York — where the presence of high-paying tech and finance jobs helps explain housing costs — Vancouver has relatively low salaries. As part of their bid for Amazon’s second headquarters, Vancouver officials boasted about having “the lowest wages of all North American tech hubs.”

增長如此引人矚目的原因在于，在硅谷、倫敦或紐約，高收入的科技和金融工作的出現(xiàn)有助于解釋住房成本，而溫哥華卻不一樣，這里的薪水相對較低。為了申請成為亞馬遜第二總部，溫哥華官員夸口說，“在全北美各大科技中心，這里的工資水平是最低的。”

“We have plenty of jobs, but you might need two or three of them to be able to afford a place to live,” said Andy Yan, director of the City Program at Simon Fraser.

“我們有很多工作，但你可能需要兩三個人的工資才能負擔得起住處，”西蒙·弗雷澤城市項目主管安迪·嚴(Andy Yan)說。

How much of the city’s housing demand is coming from China is hotly debated. Government statistics show that foreign buyers own about 5 percent of the housing stock in the metropolitan area, but the numbers are several times as high for new condominiums, which helps to explain why a surge of building hasn’t done much to reduce prices, according to an analysis by Mr. Yan. And this almost certainly underestimates the influence of foreign capital, since the data exclude Canadian immigrants with money from overseas.

該市的住房需求有多少是來自中國，這個問題引起了激烈辯論。政府統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示，外國買家擁有城區(qū)住房存量的5%，但這個數(shù)字是新建公寓的數(shù)倍，根據(jù)安迪·嚴的分析，這有助于解釋為什么這一波建造熱潮對降低房價沒有太大作用。而且這一數(shù)字幾乎肯定低估了外資的影響，因為它不包括使用海外資金的加拿大移民。

The real estate industry contends that the issue is not an influx of Chinese, who have been coming to Vancouver for decades, but zoning restrictions that prioritize low-density living, outside of a few high-rise areas.

房地產(chǎn)業(yè)爭辯說，問題不在于幾十年來涌入溫哥華的中國人，而是在于溫哥華的的分區(qū)限制措施，它的首要目標是發(fā)展幾處高樓區(qū)域之外的低密度生活區(qū)。

“I live 15 minutes from the downtown core in a house,” said Keith Roy, a real estate agent. “That’s crazy. I should be in a townhouse at this distance, maybe even a low-rise condo building.”

“我住在距市中心15分鐘車程的一座獨棟房子里，”房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀人基思·羅伊(Keith Roy)說。“太瘋狂了。在這種地段，我應該住的是聯(lián)排別墅，甚至可能是低層共管公寓。”

The figures show, however, that unlike other expensive West Coast cities like San Francisco, where the housing supply has long lagged behind population growth, Vancouver has consistently produced new housing. Over the past decade, the housing stock has grown by about 12 percent, while the population has grown by about 9 percent, according to the city.

在舊金山等房價昂貴的西海岸城市，住房供應遠遠落后于人口增長，然而數(shù)據(jù)顯示，溫哥華一直在生產(chǎn)新住房。根據(jù)該市的數(shù)據(jù)，在過去十年中，住房儲備增長了約12%，而人口增長了約9%。

This disparity has persuaded the city to broaden its measures beyond just a push for new buildings to efforts like the empty homes tax.

這種差距已經(jīng)說服該市采取更多措施，而不僅僅是采取征收空置房屋稅等推動新建筑投入使用的措施。

“It’s getting out of the mind-set that just more is better,” said Gil Kelley, the city’s general manager of planning, urban design and sustainability.

“人們不再認為多多益善，”溫哥華規(guī)劃、城市設計和可持續(xù)發(fā)展總經(jīng)理吉爾·凱利(Gil Kelley)說。

Tom Davidoff, an economist at the University of British Columbia, said it was all of the above. Vancouver is popular with foreign buyers, yes. But it also has strict zoning laws that reserve most of the city’s land for single-family homes, as well as high income taxes but low property taxes of about a quarter of a percent of the property value.

不列顛哥倫比亞大學的經(jīng)濟學家湯姆·戴維杜夫(Tom Davidoff)說，以上都是房價高的原因。是的，溫哥華很受外國買家歡迎。但它也有嚴格的分區(qū)法律，把城市大部分土地用做獨戶住宅，此外它的收入所得稅很高，但物業(yè)稅很低，僅占物業(yè)價值的四分之一左右。

“The message we have sent the world is, ‘Come and buy our real estate, but do not try to make a living here,’” Mr. Davidoff said. “Mission accomplished.”

“我們向全世界發(fā)出的信息是，‘來買我們的房地產(chǎn)，但不要在這里謀生，'”戴維杜夫說。“這個任務已經(jīng)完成。”

While the new government’s housing measures are popular with many voters, richer homeowners are fuming. A recent stroll through Vancouver’s wealthier West Side turned up bright red signs protesting the tax on $3 million homes. “Are you angry yet?” read one. “Rally against the N.D.P. tax grab now.”

雖然新政府的住房措施受到眾多選民的歡迎，但更富有的房主十分憤怒。最近在溫哥華較富裕的西區(qū)散步時，可以看到鮮紅色的標牌，抗議征收300萬美元的房產(chǎn)稅。“這下你憤怒了嗎?”其中一個牌子上寫著。還有“反對新民主黨的稅收掠奪。“

A group of wealthy homeowners also petitioned to get Mr. Davidoff, the economist, fired. His sin: talking favorably about increased property taxes.

一群富有的房主也發(fā)起請愿，要求解雇經(jīng)濟學家戴維杜夫。他的罪過就是支持增加財產(chǎn)稅。

However it happened, Vancouver’s transformation to an international gateway has given the city something of an identity crisis. For Vancouverites who a generation ago took it for granted that they could buy a home or condo near the urban core, the trade-offs for the steep rise in prices are hard to accept.

不管發(fā)生了什么，溫哥華向國際門戶的轉變給這座城市帶來了身份危機。一個世代以前，溫哥華人認為他們可以在市區(qū)中心附近購買住宅或公寓，對他們來說，房價急劇上漲的代價是難以接受的。

“People who live and work in Vancouver can’t afford to live here,” said Nathalie Baker, a lawyer who is in favor of measures to cool the market, even though she owns a home here. “And that is a very significant problem.”

盡管在溫哥華擁有一棟房子，但律師娜塔莉·貝克爾(Nathalie Baker)依然贊同采取措施冷卻市場。她說：“在溫哥華生活和工作的人卻不能居住在這里，這是一個非常嚴重的問題。”