#metoo運(yùn)動(dòng)將決定特朗普的命運(yùn)

It would be hard to imagine the #MeToo movement were Donald Trump not the US president. It would be harder still to account for the surge in women running in this year’s midterm elections had he not won the White House in 2016. If there is still a glass ceiling in the Democratic party, it belongs in a museum by now.

如果唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)不是美國(guó)總統(tǒng)的話(huà)，我們很難想象會(huì)出現(xiàn)“#我也是”(#MeToo)運(yùn)動(dòng)。如果他沒(méi)有贏得2016年的總統(tǒng)大選，那么參加今年中期選舉的女性候選人數(shù)量激增將是更難想象的。如果說(shuō)民主黨內(nèi)仍有玻璃天花板，那么事到如今，這個(gè)天花板已屬于博物館。

Some call the female groundswell the “pink wave” — or Hillary Clinton’s revenge. We should therefore brace ourselves for an orange backlash. Mr Trump knows his fate hinges on how well women do in November. Democrats should be wary of playing into his hands.

有些人將女性迅速崛起的現(xiàn)象稱(chēng)為“粉紅浪潮”——或者希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)的報(bào)復(fù)。因此，我們應(yīng)做好迎接橙色(指特朗普——譯者注)反沖的準(zhǔn)備。特朗普知道，他的命運(yùn)取決于女性在11月的表現(xiàn)。民主黨人應(yīng)警惕不要給他可乘之機(jī)。

Women’s rise in American politics has been astonishingly slow. A century after American women won the national vote, less than a fifth of Congress is female. Just 27 of the chief executives of the Fortune 500 companies are women. Apart from Nikki Haley, US ambassador to the UN, and a couple of strategists, the only prominent woman on Mr Trump’s team is his daughter Ivanka. It is not clear if Melania Trump, the other significant woman in the White House, is on her husband’s side. When asked last year where she would like to spend Christmas, the First Lady said “a deserted island”.

女性在美國(guó)政界崛起的速度非常之慢。在美國(guó)女性贏得選舉權(quán)的一個(gè)世紀(jì)后，國(guó)會(huì)中女議員的比例還不到五分之一。《財(cái)富》(Fortune)500強(qiáng)企業(yè)的首席執(zhí)行官中，只有27位女性。除美國(guó)駐聯(lián)合國(guó)大使尼基•黑利(Nikki Haley)和幾位策略師之外，特朗普?qǐng)F(tuán)隊(duì)中唯一扮演突出角色的女性是他女兒伊萬(wàn)卡(Ivanka)。目前尚未可知的是，白宮的另一位重要女性梅拉尼婭•特朗普(Melania Trump)是否站在她丈夫一邊。去年當(dāng)被問(wèn)及她想在哪里過(guò)圣誕節(jié)時(shí)，這位第一夫人回答說(shuō)“一個(gè)荒島”。

If women simply voted for other women, Mr Trump’s goose would be cooked. But politics does not often work like that. More than half of the white women who voted in 2016 chose Mr Trump over Mrs Clinton. That rose to more than six in 10 of women without a college degree. On some Trumpian issues, such as fear of terrorism, the median female voter is to the right of the male. On others, such as guns in schools, she is to the left.

如果女性全都投票支持女性候選人，那么特朗普就會(huì)完蛋。但在政治中情況往往并非如此。在2016年，超過(guò)一半的白人女性投票給特朗普，而不是希拉里。在未取得大學(xué)學(xué)歷的女性選民中，投票給特朗普的比例更高，超過(guò)6成。對(duì)于一些特朗普式問(wèn)題(比如對(duì)恐怖主義的恐懼)，一般女性選民的態(tài)度比男性選民更右。對(duì)于其他問(wèn)題(例如校園中的槍支問(wèn)題)，她們的態(tài)度比男性選民更左。

Where do women stand on Mr Trump’s attitude towards women? Somewhere between disgusted and forgiving is the answer. It is not clear which way #MeToo can sway an election.

在特朗普對(duì)女性的態(tài)度上，女性的立場(chǎng)是什么?答案是居于厭惡和原諒之間的某個(gè)位置。目前還不清楚“#我也是”運(yùn)動(dòng)可能把中期選舉帶向哪個(gè)方向。

This is where Democrats should tread carefully. Al Franken, one of the left’s 2020 hopefuls, resigned his Senate seat in January after eight women said he had groped them. Though the allegations paled in comparison to those about Mr Trump, he was ejected without a hearing. His hopes vanished after Kirstin Gillibrand, the New York senator and presidential hopeful, called on him to resign. Many of her colleagues followed suit. So far, so good.

這是民主黨人應(yīng)小心行事的地方。左翼陣營(yíng)中有望沖刺2020年大選的阿爾•弗蘭肯(Al Franken)于今年1月辭去了參議員職位，此前有8名女性稱(chēng)遭他非禮。盡管與特朗普所遭指控相比，這些指控情節(jié)較輕，但他在未經(jīng)聽(tīng)證的情況下就被驅(qū)逐。在紐約州參議員、有望成為總統(tǒng)候選人的柯?tīng)査闺?bull;蓋利布蘭德(Kirsten Gillibrand)呼吁他辭職后，弗蘭肯逐鹿白宮的希望破滅了。蓋利布蘭德的許多同事也紛紛效仿。到目前為止，一切順利。

But here is the rub: more than half of voters in Mr Franken’s home state of Minnesota approved of the job he was doing. An even higher share of female voters — 57 per cent — agreed. Few Democratic voters, and even fewer women, thought he should have resigned.

但問(wèn)題在于：在弗蘭肯所代表的明尼蘇達(dá)州，超過(guò)半數(shù)的選民認(rèn)可他的工作。認(rèn)可他工作的女性選民比例甚至更高，為57%。沒(méi)多少民主黨選民認(rèn)為他應(yīng)該辭職，持此觀點(diǎn)的女性選民甚至更少。

Which brings me to the orange backlash. The #MeToo movement has two excesses Mr Trump will be sure to exploit. The first is the rush to pronounce guilt without a hearing. Mr Franken requested an inquiry, but politics lacks patience. Ms Gillibrand is now facing a backlash of her own from Democratic donors. What may help her with primary voters could boomerang in a general election. Second, the viral campaigns against men have sometimes conflated misbehaviour with criminal offences. That is the nature of Twitter.

這讓我想到了橙色反沖。“#我也是”運(yùn)動(dòng)有兩種過(guò)分行為，特朗普肯定會(huì)對(duì)它們加以利用。第一種是不經(jīng)聽(tīng)證就急于宣判罪行。弗蘭肯要求進(jìn)行調(diào)查，但政治缺乏耐心。目前，蓋利布蘭德本身也遭到來(lái)自民主黨捐贈(zèng)者的反彈。在初選時(shí)也許對(duì)她有利的因素，在大選時(shí)可能反過(guò)來(lái)對(duì)她不利。其次，這場(chǎng)針對(duì)男性的風(fēng)風(fēng)火火的運(yùn)動(dòng)有時(shí)會(huì)將不當(dāng)行為與刑事犯罪混為一談。這就是Twitter的特性。

Many careers have been ended. Some of the men deserve lengthy jail sentences. Others should improve their manners. The latter may be collateral damage in a just war, but there are Americans of all genders who question the fairness of viral justice.

許多人的職業(yè)生涯已告終結(jié)。其中有些人應(yīng)該被判長(zhǎng)期監(jiān)禁。其他人只需檢點(diǎn)他們的行為。后者也許是一場(chǎng)正義戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的附帶損害，但這種風(fēng)風(fēng)火火的正義是否公正，在無(wú)論男性還是女性美國(guó)人中都同樣引發(fā)了質(zhì)疑。

Against this, there is the Republican party. It should be little surprise so few women are applying to be candidates for a party led by Mr Trump. In December, Alabama’s voters broke the habit of a generation by electing a Democratic senator. Republicans had put up a man — Roy Moore — who was accused of serially dating teenaged girls. Mr Moore is now backing a Senate candidate in Missouri who calls feminists “she-devils”. If Republicans keep tolerating men like this, they will write themselves into oblivion. But such candidates tend to be outliers.

在這方面，共和黨的情況正相反。如此少的女性申請(qǐng)成為特朗普所領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的共和黨的候選人，這應(yīng)該不令人意外。去年12月，阿拉巴馬州的選民打破一代人的習(xí)慣，選出了一名民主黨參議員。當(dāng)時(shí)共和黨人推出的候選人是羅伊•摩爾(Roy Moore)，此人被指控與多個(gè)十幾歲的女孩約會(huì)。摩爾現(xiàn)在支持密蘇里州的一位參議員候選人，后者把女權(quán)主義者稱(chēng)為“女魔頭”。如果共和黨人一直容忍這樣的人，他們將自掘墳?zāi)埂５@樣的候選人往往不屬于主流。

Here is the more likely trend. Conservatives, for the most part, will stick with men such as Mike Pence, the vice-president. Mr Pence is an evangelical who has vowed never to dine alone with a woman except his own wife. He has been pilloried for his prudishness. How can anyone work in today’s world without being alone with a female colleague? It is altogether Saudi Arabian.

可能性較大的情況是這樣的。保守派基本上將繼續(xù)力挺副總統(tǒng)邁克•彭斯(Mike Pence)這樣的男性。彭斯是一個(gè)福音派信徒，他發(fā)誓，除妻子外絕不和任何一位女性單獨(dú)進(jìn)餐。他因過(guò)分正經(jīng)而受到嘲笑。在當(dāng)今世界，從不與一位女同事獨(dú)處一處的話(huà)，還怎么工作呢?這完全是沙特阿拉伯的做法。

But liberals are heading in a similar direction. Nearly a quarter of millennial males in the US say inviting a female peer for a drink is a form of harassment. Both parties are being tugged towards prudish extremes. One magnifies male anger; the other female. Neither captures the complexity of the average voter. If politics descends into a gender war, Mr Trump could be the winner.

但自由派正朝著一個(gè)類(lèi)似方向前進(jìn)。在美國(guó)，近四分之一的千禧一代男性表示，邀請(qǐng)一位女性同事喝酒是一種騷擾。兩黨都被推向了正襟危坐的極端。一方放大了男性的憤怒;另一方放大了女性的憤怒。兩方都沒(méi)有抓住普通選民的復(fù)雜訴求。如果政治淪為一場(chǎng)性別戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，特朗普就可能成為贏家。