為何特朗普擺脫不了俄羅斯？

Donald Trump may no longer be interested in Russia, but Russia is interested in him. Robert Mueller, the special counsel, has now indicted 19 people — including 13 Russians and five Americans who worked on Mr Trump’s campaign. That was just the start. When Mr Mueller gets round to Moscow’s election hacking, more Russians and Americans will surely be added. The Watergate investigation took two years to play out from burglary to presidential resignation. Nine months into the job, Mr Mueller looks to be on a similar timetable.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)可能不再對俄羅斯感興趣，但俄羅斯對他感興趣。特別檢察官羅伯特•米勒(Robert Mueller)現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)起訴了19人，其中包括13名俄羅斯人和5名特朗普競選團(tuán)隊(duì)的美國人。這只是開始。一旦米勒騰出手來調(diào)查莫斯科在美國大選期間的黑客活動(dòng)，肯定還會起訴更多的俄羅斯人和美國人。對“水門事件”的調(diào)查在兩年的時(shí)間里讓一起失竊事件發(fā)展到總統(tǒng)辭職。米勒已經(jīng)調(diào)查了9個(gè)月，現(xiàn)在看起來也有類似的時(shí)間表。

Familiarity lulls the mind. It is thus easy to miss the enormity of what is unfolding. Mr Mueller is playing a game of chess. Every move is made with his opponent’s king in mind. Last Friday, he boosted his defence by nailing Russia’s interference in the 2016 election. Do not take Mr Mueller’s word for it. HR McMaster, Mr Trump’s national security adviser, said Russia’s role was “now incontrovertible”. That makes it far harder for the president to fire Mr Mueller — something he has tried to do more than once. I would bet Mr Trump now sees General McMaster as a sacrificial pawn.

這一幕似曾相識，這讓人們放松了警惕，因此很容易忽視正在發(fā)生事情的嚴(yán)重性。米勒正在下一盤棋，每一步都在逼宮。本月16日，他公布了俄羅斯對2016年美國大選的一些干涉行為，由此提升了自己的防御。不要相信米勒的話。特朗普的國家安全顧問赫伯特•雷蒙德•麥克馬斯特(HR McMaster)表示，俄羅斯的角色“現(xiàn)在是無可置疑的”。這讓特朗普更難解雇米勒——他不止一次試圖解雇米勒。我敢打賭，特朗普現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)把麥克馬斯特將軍視為棄子。

Mr Mueller is skilled at messing with his opponent’s head. Both Mr Trump and Mike Pence, the vice-president, say the charge sheet showed Russia had no effect on the outcome of the US election. In fact, the 37-page document was silent on Russia’s impact. It is telling that America’s two most senior statesmen are reading things that are not there.

米勒很擅長迷惑對手。特朗普和副總統(tǒng)邁克•彭斯(Mike Pence)都表示，訴狀顯示，俄羅斯沒有對美國大選結(jié)果產(chǎn)生影響。事實(shí)上，這份37頁的文件并沒有提到俄羅斯的影響。這表明，美國的兩位最高統(tǒng)帥讀了子虛烏有的東西。

Mr Trump is obsessive about claims that his victory over Hillary Clinton was illegitimate. Sixteen months later he is still tweeting about it. Mr Trump’s sensitivity on 2016 prevents him from acknowledging Russia’s role. He won the election fair and square. Anything that casts doubt on that — especially Russia — is taboo.

有人宣稱，特朗普對希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)的勝利是不合法的，特朗普對此耿耿于懷。16個(gè)月過去了，他仍在就這一點(diǎn)發(fā)表推文。特朗普對于2016年大選相關(guān)話題異常敏感，是不可能承認(rèn)俄羅斯干預(yù)了大選的。他正大光明地贏得了選舉。任何令人對此產(chǎn)生懷疑的東西——尤其是俄羅斯——都是禁忌。

Yet the biggest Russian shoe is yet to drop. Last week’s indictments focused on the St Petersburg-based internet troll farm. They said nothing about the email hacking of the Democratic party’s headquarters and senior members of Mrs Clinton’s campaign. Unlike the fake news operation, which was headed by a friend of Russian president Vladimir Putin, the hacking was almost certainly pulled off by the FSB and the GRU, Russia’s two main intelligence agencies. They funnelled their material through WikiLeaks, the site run by the fugitive Julian Assange.

然而，俄羅斯這只最大的靴子還沒有落下。16日的訴狀主要集中在總部位于圣彼得堡的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)“巨魔農(nóng)場”(troll farm)上，完全沒有提及民主黨總部和希拉里競選班子高級成員的電子郵件遭遇黑客攻擊的事件。與由俄羅斯總統(tǒng)弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)的一個(gè)朋友主導(dǎo)的“虛假新聞”行動(dòng)不同，俄羅斯的兩大情報(bào)機(jī)構(gòu)聯(lián)邦安全局(FSB)和格勒烏(GRU)幾乎可以肯定從事了黑客活動(dòng)。他們通過流亡者朱利安•阿桑奇(Julian Assange)經(jīng)營的網(wǎng)站維基解密(WikiLeaks)發(fā)布材料。

Roger Stone, Mr Trump’s first campaign manager, had a knack for guessing when WikiLeaks would dump its next cache. Mr Trump would then forecast it from the hustings. He cited WikiLeaks 164 times in the last four weeks of the general election. The timing of the leaks was always helpful. The largest dump took place 32 minutes after the release of the notorious Access Hollywood tapes. Who is to say that smoke bomb did not alter the US election? Nobody can prove Russia’s impact either way, of course. With each move by Mr Mueller, Mr Trump will only become more obsessed with disproving it.

特朗普的首位競選經(jīng)理羅杰•斯通(Roger Stone)擅長猜測維基解密何時(shí)拋出下一個(gè)爆料。然后特朗普會在競選活動(dòng)中對此進(jìn)行預(yù)測。他在大選最后四周引用了164次維基解密。爆料的時(shí)機(jī)總是有幫助的。在臭名昭著的《走進(jìn)好萊塢》(Access Hollywood)錄音發(fā)布32分鐘后，最大的爆料出現(xiàn)了。誰會說煙霧彈沒有改變美國大選?當(dāng)然，沒有人能夠證明俄羅斯對兩邊陣營的影響。隨著米勒步步緊逼，特朗普只會更加癡迷于反駁。

The stand-off between Mr Mueller and the US president is a geopolitical gift to Mr Putin. Mr Trump is unable to take the tough line on Moscow his advisers are urging. Six months after Congress passed new Russia sanctions, Mr Trump has yet to implement them. The gulf between Mr Trump’s instincts and the advice he receives is widening. His administration formally defines Russia as an adversary. That would have been Mrs Clinton’s stance were she in power. Mr Trump disagrees with it. America’s allies have no idea whom to believe — the president, or the people who work for him. They say different things.

米勒與特朗普的對峙是送給普京的地緣政治禮物。特朗普無法像其顧問敦促的那樣對莫斯科采取強(qiáng)硬路線。在美國國會通過新的對俄制裁決議6個(gè)月后，特朗普仍未執(zhí)行這些制裁。特朗普的本能和他收到的建議之間的分歧日益加劇。他的政府正式將俄羅斯定義為敵手。希拉里如果上臺也會持這種立場。特朗普不這么認(rèn)為。美國的盟友不知道該相信誰——特朗普還是為他工作的人。他們說著不同的事情。

Mr Putin is also reaping ideological dividends. Russia’s aim is to “sow discord” in US democracy, according to Mr Mueller. Mr Putin could open a new bank with the proceeds. Last week Dan Coats, Mr Trump’s director of national intelligence, told Congress he was sure Moscow would interfere in the upcoming US midterm elections. Yet Mr Trump will not even refer to the threat. His administration is doing very little to boost the resilience of America’s election process. We should put Mr Coats down as another dispensable pawn.

普京也在收獲意識形態(tài)的紅利。根據(jù)米勒的說法，俄羅斯的目標(biāo)是在美國民主中“撒播不和”。普京可以用這些收益開一家新銀行。數(shù)日前，特朗普的國家情報(bào)局局長丹•科茨(Dan Coats)告訴國會，他相信莫斯科將會干涉即將到來的美國中期選舉。然而，特朗普甚至不會提到這種威脅。他的政府在提高美國選舉過程的韌性方面幾乎無所作為。我們應(yīng)該把科茨當(dāng)作另一個(gè)可有可無的棋子。

But the largest breakdown is with America’s law enforcement agencies. The Federal Bureau of Investigation says Russia tried to sabotage US democracy. Mr Trump insists that claim is a hoax. He even blamed last week’s Florida school massacre on the FBI probe. The agency had spent “too much time on Russia collusion” to act on tip offs about the school shooter, he said. That takes some mind-bending. Are they “laughing their asses off” in Moscow, as Mr Trump tweeted last weekend? They ought to be. America’s president is a gift that keeps on giving.

但最大的裂痕還是與美國執(zhí)法機(jī)構(gòu)之間的。聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局(FBI)稱俄羅斯試圖破壞美國民主。特朗普堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為這種指控是場騙局。他甚至把14日的佛羅里達(dá)學(xué)校屠殺事件歸咎于FBI的調(diào)查。他說，F(xiàn)BI花費(fèi)了“太多時(shí)間調(diào)查通俄問題”，而忽視了槍擊案兇手發(fā)出的種種信號。這種說法有些不可思議。就像特朗普不久前在推文中所說的那樣，他們在莫斯科“笑掉大牙”了嗎?應(yīng)該會。這位美國總統(tǒng)實(shí)在是不斷帶來驚喜。

[email protected] 譯者/裴伴