Netflix：原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容投資“難封頂”

When the first season of House of Cards made its debut on Netflix in February 2013, pundits wondered whether the video streaming service could really afford the $100m political drama. At the time, Netflix had 33.3m streaming subscribers, many of whom quickly became glued to the tale of Washington DC scheming and intrigue.

2013年2月，當(dāng)《紙牌屋》(House of Cards)第一季在Netflix上映時(shí)，評(píng)論人士們還懷疑這家視頻流媒體服務(wù)商是否真能承擔(dān)得起這部耗資1億美元的政治劇。當(dāng)時(shí)，Netflix擁有3330萬(wàn)流媒體訂閱用戶，其中許多人很快迷上了這部講述華盛頓特區(qū)陰謀詭計(jì)的電視劇。

Five years ago, original commissioning was a novelty for what was only a few years earlier known primarily as a DVD-by-mail business. Then, Netflix was heavily dependent on content distribution deals with traditional media groups including Walt Disney and Mad Men-maker AMC for the vast majority of its online library.

5年前，對(duì)于這家?guī)啄昵斑€以在線租賃DVD業(yè)務(wù)為主的公司來(lái)說(shuō)，委托制作原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容還是個(gè)新鮮事物。當(dāng)時(shí)，Netflix的在線影庫(kù)嚴(yán)重依賴(lài)與華特迪士尼公司(Walt Disney)和《廣告狂人》(Mad Men)制作商AMC等傳統(tǒng)媒體集團(tuán)簽訂的內(nèi)容分發(fā)協(xié)議。

Fast-forward to early 2018 and Netflix can afford to write off $39m without Wall Street even blinking. The $39m non-cash charge incurred in the fourth quarter of 2017 was related to programming, including two episodes of House of Cards that Netflix commissioned but will never air due to the sexual harassment scandal that erupted around the show’s leading man, Kevin Spacey.

快進(jìn)到2018年初，Netflix已經(jīng)可以承受得起3900萬(wàn)美元的核銷(xiāo)，而華爾街對(duì)此眼睛都不眨一下。這筆發(fā)生在2017年第四季度的3900萬(wàn)美元非現(xiàn)金費(fèi)用與節(jié)目制作有關(guān)，其中包括Netflix委托制作的兩季《紙牌屋》——由于主角凱文•史派西(Kevin Spacey)的性騷擾丑聞，它們將永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)播出。

That charge was reported alongside another forecast-busting set of results on Monday that sent Netflix’s market capitalisation soaring above $100bn for the first time, pushing shares up 10 per cent in early trading yesterday. Annual revenues jumped 32 per cent year on year to $11.7bn in 2017, while net income trebled to $559m, thanks to hit shows including Stranger Things .

隨同這筆開(kāi)支一起發(fā)布的還有Netflix又一組超預(yù)期的業(yè)績(jī)。這導(dǎo)致次日該公司早盤(pán)股價(jià)上漲10%，公司市值首次突破1000億美元。2017年，Netflix全年?duì)I收同比增長(zhǎng)32%，至117億美元，而凈收入則增長(zhǎng)兩倍，至5.59億美元。這要?dú)w功于包括《怪奇物語(yǔ)》(Stranger Things)在內(nèi)的一系列熱播劇。

Yet as investors cheered Netflix’s accelerating growth to reach 117.6m subscribers globally, the group warned that maintaining momentum in original content would come at an upfront cost that makes that initial $100m outlay look like a rounding error.

然而，在投資者為Netflix增長(zhǎng)加速、在全球擁有1.176億用戶歡呼之際，該公司卻警告說(shuō)，保持原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭將會(huì)產(chǎn)生極高的前期成本。相比之下，最初的1億美元支出看起來(lái)像是個(gè)零頭。

Netflix’s liabilities from content prepayment and debt have increased four-fold in the past five years. The combination of its long-term debt and streaming content obligations has swelled from $6.1bn at the end of 2012 to $24.2bn at the end of last year.

Netflix在內(nèi)容預(yù)付和債務(wù)方面的負(fù)債在過(guò)去5年里增長(zhǎng)了3倍。長(zhǎng)期債務(wù)和流媒體內(nèi)容債務(wù)從2012年底的61億美元增加到去年年底的242億美元。

Of that total, $17.7bn is streaming content obligations — what it pays for the acquisition, licensing and production of television shows and movies, sometimes years in advance of broadcasting a show. The other $6.5bn is debt — and Netflix said on Monday that it planned to tap the bond markets again soon.

其中177億美元是流媒體內(nèi)容債務(wù)——即在收購(gòu)、許可和制作電視節(jié)目和電影方面付出的成本，盡管有時(shí)這些節(jié)目得幾年之后才會(huì)播放。還有65億美元是債務(wù)——而Netflix日前表示，它計(jì)劃很快再次發(fā)行債券。

Analysts at Jefferies said in a note to clients that expenses such as marketing spending and programming cost were “higher relative to our expectations”.

杰富瑞(Jefferies)的分析師在一份客戶報(bào)告中指出，Netflix營(yíng)銷(xiāo)支出和節(jié)目制作成本等開(kāi)支“高于我們的預(yù)期”。

To justify that $24bn of liabilities, chief executive Reed Hastings is asking investors to bet on Netflix’s success in producing hit shows as it races to fill the programming gap left by the likes of Disney turning from partner to competitor in the streaming market.

為了證明這242億美元的負(fù)債是合理的，Netflix首席執(zhí)行官里德•黑斯廷斯(Reed Hastings)請(qǐng)求投資者相信Netflix能夠成功制作熱播劇——它力爭(zhēng)填補(bǔ)在迪士尼等公司從流媒體市場(chǎng)合作伙伴轉(zhuǎn)為競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手后所留下的節(jié)目制作空缺。

“We’ve had that track record in the last couple of years at greater and greater scale,” Mr Hastings said in Monday’s quarterly analyst interview. “We are continuing to take it up a notch.”

黑斯廷斯1月22日在接受季度分析師采訪時(shí)表示：“過(guò)去幾年我們的業(yè)績(jī)?cè)絹?lái)越好。我們會(huì)更上一層樓。”

Netflix executives touted the upcoming launches of Altered Carbon, a science-fiction show, and Everything Sucks, a coming-of-age comedy-drama set in 1990s Oregon, as examples of shows that would continue to attract new subscribers in 2018.

Netflix的高管力推即將發(fā)布的科幻劇《副本》(Altered Carbon)，以及以上世紀(jì)90年代俄勒岡州為背景的成長(zhǎng)喜劇片《諸事皆衰》(Everything Sucks)，以此證明公司有能力在2018年繼續(xù)吸引新用戶。

The company also plans to commission more programming in languages other than English, from just a handful of shows last year to more than 30 international “originals” in 2018. Alongside that are dozens more full-length movies, after the Will Smith blockbuster Bright proved a hit last month.

該公司還計(jì)劃委托制作更多的非英語(yǔ)節(jié)目。雖然去年僅有少數(shù)非英語(yǔ)節(jié)目，但在2018年將會(huì)有30多個(gè)國(guó)際“原創(chuàng)節(jié)目”。此外，繼12月威爾•史密斯(Will Smith)主演的大片《光靈》(Bright)大獲成功之后，Netflix還會(huì)推出幾十部全長(zhǎng)電影。

In total, Netflix plans to invest as much as $8bn in new content this year — and Mr Hastings warned that the budget would continue to grow. “It will definitely of course be higher in 2019 and 2020,” he said of content costs. “Don’t think of $8bn as some new plateau.”

Netflix計(jì)劃今年在新內(nèi)容上總共投資80億美元，而黑斯廷斯警告稱(chēng)，預(yù)算將會(huì)繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。他在談到內(nèi)容成本時(shí)表示：“2019年和2020年肯定會(huì)更高。不要以為80億美元已經(jīng)到頂了。”

Competition too is increasing. Disney plans to launch new subscription streaming services this year and Hulu, the US internet video service that is jointly owned by Disney, Fox and Comcast, grew to 17m subscribers last year.

競(jìng)爭(zhēng)也在加劇。迪士尼計(jì)劃今年推出新的訂閱流媒體服務(wù)，而迪士尼、?？怂?Fox)和康卡斯特(Comcast)共同擁有的美國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)視頻服務(wù)商Hulu去年用戶增長(zhǎng)至1700萬(wàn)。

Anticipation of that competition from traditional media companies was what drove Netflix to invest in its own TV shows in the first place, according to content chief Ted Sarandos. Mr Sarandos added that many Netflix shows that are licensed from or made by Disney are locked into long-term deals. “As long as they keep making those shows, they continue on Netflix,” he said.

Netflix內(nèi)容總監(jiān)泰德•薩蘭多斯(Ted Sarandos)表示，促使公司投資制作原創(chuàng)電視節(jié)目的最主要原因正是對(duì)來(lái)自傳統(tǒng)媒體公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的預(yù)期。薩蘭多斯補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，Netflix很多獲得迪士尼授權(quán)或者由其制作的節(jié)目都被鎖定在長(zhǎng)期交易中。他表示：“只要他們繼續(xù)制作這些節(jié)目，他們就會(huì)繼續(xù)在Netflix播出。”

If Mr Hastings was concerned about the impact of Disney’s $66bn plan to buy 21st Century Fox’s entertainment businesses, he did a good job of hiding it when he was quizzed on Monday.

在被問(wèn)及迪士尼以660億美元收購(gòu)21世紀(jì)?？怂构?21st Century Fox)旗下娛樂(lè)業(yè)務(wù)計(jì)劃的影響時(shí)，黑斯廷斯即使心存憂慮，他也掩飾得很好。

“These kind of big US media company mergers are pretty peripheral to us,” he said. “I was as surprised as anyone else that Fox was willing to sell.”

他說(shuō)：“此類(lèi)大型美國(guó)媒體公司兼并案對(duì)我們來(lái)說(shuō)并不重要。我和其他人一樣，對(duì)福克斯愿意出售感到意外。”

Yet even though Rupert Murdoch has suggested that the competitive threat from Netflix contributed to his decision to sell Fox to Disney, Mr Hastings said he was looking forward to the new streaming services that would follow the deal — as a viewer, at least.

然而，盡管魯珀特•默多克(Rupert Murdoch)表示，正是來(lái)自Netflix的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)威脅促使他做出了將?？怂钩鍪劢o迪士尼的決定，但是黑斯廷斯表示，自己十分期待這項(xiàng)交易之后的新流媒體服務(wù)——至少作為一名旁觀者如此。

“Disney, with its strength of brand and unique content, will have some real success,” the Netflix chief said. “I know I’ll be a subscriber of it for my own personal watching.”

黑斯廷斯說(shuō)：“迪士尼將會(huì)憑借其品牌實(shí)力和獨(dú)一無(wú)二的內(nèi)容大獲成功。我知道，就我個(gè)人觀看來(lái)說(shuō)，我會(huì)成為它的用戶。”