2018年開局交易活躍令交易所振奮
全球市場(chǎng)上多年來最繁忙的1月份令各交易所和市場(chǎng)萌生期待，希望2018年將引發(fā)期盼已久的交易收入反彈。
Volatility on foreign exchange markets has spiked after comments from the US Treasury secretary about the weakness of the US dollar sent the greenback tumbling and volumes rising.
在美國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng)發(fā)表了有關(guān)弱勢(shì)美元的言論、導(dǎo)致美元匯率大幅下跌和交易量上升后，匯市波動(dòng)性驟升。
Investors have also seen the 10-year Treasury yield, which sets the cost of money for the world, rise its most in more than a year on fears that inflation may be returning. Stock markets have dipped recently after rising on data showing strong growth in many of the world’s biggest economies.
投資者還看到，為全球資金成本設(shè)定基準(zhǔn)的10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率，由于市場(chǎng)擔(dān)心通脹可能在卷土重來而出現(xiàn)一年多來最大攀升。股市在因?yàn)閿?shù)據(jù)顯示全球多個(gè)最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁而上漲后，近日有所回落。
Those signals have driven a sharp pick-up in volumes after several weak years across equities, futures, currencies and fixed income markets. Low interest rates and steady economic growth after the financial crisis had left many markets becalmed.
這些信號(hào)推動(dòng)著交易量急劇回升，此前股票、期貨、外匯和固定收益市場(chǎng)經(jīng)歷了幾年的疲軟。金融危機(jī)過后的低利率和穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)使許多市場(chǎng)風(fēng)平浪靜。
CME Group, the world’s largest futures exchange, last week reported an average daily volume of 19m contracts, up 18 per cent year on year and its second-highest monthly average daily volume ever.
全球最大的期貨交易所——芝加哥商品交易所集團(tuán)(CME Group)上周平均日交易量為1900萬手，同比增長(zhǎng)18%，并創(chuàng)下月度日均交易量第二高。
Deutsche Börse said the 34 per cent year-on-year increase in turnover on its cash markets was its highest January number since 2008. MarketAxess, the US corporate bond trading venue, reported record average daily volume for the month, up 22 per cent year on year.
德意志交易所(Deutsche Börse)表示，其現(xiàn)金市場(chǎng)交易量同比增長(zhǎng)34%，是自2008年以來最高的1月數(shù)字。美國(guó)公司債券交易市場(chǎng)MarketAxess報(bào)告了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1月日均成交量，同比增長(zhǎng)22%。
“I think its an ‘early great indicator’,” said Richard Repetto, analyst at Sandler O’Neill in New York. “Not only have volumes in January showed strength, but more importantly, most volatility measures have increased as well. Barring a severe, prolonged pullback in the markets, which eventually would weigh on transaction activity, the volume outlook looks good right now.”
“我認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)‘早期的大好指標(biāo)’，”Sandler O’Neill 在紐約的分析師理查德•雷佩托(Richard Repetto)表示。“1月份不僅成交量顯示出強(qiáng)勁，更重要的是多數(shù)波動(dòng)性指標(biāo)也出現(xiàn)上升。除非市場(chǎng)上出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重而長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的回調(diào)，最終拖累交易活動(dòng)，否則眼下的交易量前景看起來不錯(cuò)。”
Yet many executives remain cautious after several lean years. Terry Duffy, CME chief executive, last week described 2017 as “certainly an unusual year. Virtually every asset class experienced reduced volatility”.
然而，在經(jīng)歷了幾年的艱辛之后，許多高管保持謹(jǐn)慎。芝加哥商品交易所首席執(zhí)行官特里•達(dá)菲(Terry Duffy)上周將2017年形容為“肯定是不尋常的一年。幾乎每一個(gè)資產(chǎn)類別都經(jīng)歷了波動(dòng)性降低”。
The UK’s Nex Group reported double-digit growth for January in repo markets, which act as critical sources of short-term funding and collateral for financial institutions. It also runs one of the world’s biggest foreign exchange trading venues.
英國(guó)Nex Group報(bào)告1月份回購(gòu)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng);這類市場(chǎng)是金融機(jī)構(gòu)短期資金和抵押的重要來源。該集團(tuán)還運(yùn)營(yíng)著世界上最大的外匯交易場(chǎng)所之一。
“It’s still too early to assume with any confidence that the prolonged and subdued conditions have come to an end — but I do keep hoping,” said Michael Spencer, chief executive of Nex. “I’m hopeful the FX markets are more generous to us this year than they have been in past years.”
“現(xiàn)在就信心滿滿地假設(shè)漫長(zhǎng)的低迷狀況已經(jīng)結(jié)束還為時(shí)過早，但我繼續(xù)抱以期許，”Nex首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾•斯賓塞(Michael Spencer)表示。“我希望今年外匯市場(chǎng)對(duì)我們比過去幾年更加慷慨。”
Traders have also noted that despite the sharp increase in January trading activity, closely watched indicators measuring volatility in US equity and Treasury markets were still below long-term trends.
交易員們還指出，盡管1月份交易活動(dòng)大幅增加，但受到密切關(guān)注的衡量美國(guó)股票和國(guó)債市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性的指標(biāo)仍低于長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)。
The Vix index, a benchmark measure of implied volatility on equity markets, has been trading below its long-term average for most of the past two years.
Vix指數(shù)是股市隱含波動(dòng)率的基準(zhǔn)指標(biāo);在過去兩年的大部分時(shí)間里，該指數(shù)一直低于其長(zhǎng)期平均水平。
However the Vix jumped nearly 30 per cent on Friday to its highest level since November 2016. Cboe Global Markets, owner of the Vix indices, said Vix options volumes hit an all-time high of 4.3m contracts on Friday, surpassing the previous record by 39 per cent.
然而上周五Vix指數(shù)躍升近30%，達(dá)到自2016年11月以來的最高水平。Vix指數(shù)的所有者——芝加哥期權(quán)交易所全球市場(chǎng)(Cboe Global Markets)表示，Vix期權(quán)交易量上周五創(chuàng)下430萬份合約的歷史最高紀(jì)錄，比之前的紀(jì)錄高出39%。
