歐洲銀行家不認為美中會爆發(fā)全面貿易戰(zhàn)

European bank bosses have warned that Donald Trump’s “America-first” approach risks creating a more fragmented global economy, while predicting that it is unlikely to trigger an all-out trade war between the US and China.

歐洲各大銀行掌門人警告稱，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的“美國優(yōu)先”政策可能會造成更支離破碎的全球經(jīng)濟，但他們預測它不太可能引發(fā)美中全面貿易戰(zhàn)。

The heads of some of Europe’s biggest lenders told the Financial Times at the World Economic Forum on the day of Mr Trump’s arrival that the consequences of a tit-for-tat escalation of tariffs between the world’s two biggest economies would be so dire they did not believe it would happen.

在特朗普抵達達沃斯當天，歐洲部分大型銀行的負責人在世界經(jīng)濟論壇(World Economic Forum)上向英國《金融時報》(Financial Times)表示，世界兩個最大經(jīng)濟體之間針鋒相對的關稅升級將帶來非?？膳碌暮蠊?，他們不認為這會發(fā)生。

This week the US imposed tariffs on imports of solar cells and washing machines and senior Trump administration officials warned that Washington was preparing to intensify its measures to prevent what it views as unfair trading practices around the world.

本周美國對進口太陽能電池和洗衣機征收關稅，特朗普政府高級官員警告說，華盛頓正準備加強措施，以阻止世界各地被其視為不公平的貿易行為。

“You have to be concerned. But do I think there’s going to be a bad outcome? No,” Bill Winters, chief executive of Standard Chartered, said in Davos.

渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)首席執(zhí)行官比爾•溫特斯(Bill Winters)在達沃斯上稱：“你不得不擔心。但我是否認為會有糟糕的結果呢?否。”

“The US appears to be taking a measured approach and I would expect the Chinese to take a measured approach in response,” said the US-born boss of London-listed StanChart, which earns most of its revenue in Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

倫敦上市的渣打銀行的這位在美國出生的掌門人表示：“美國似乎采取了謹慎的態(tài)度，我預計中國也會相應采取慎重立場。”渣打大多數(shù)收入來自亞洲、非洲和中東。

“It is not in the US interest, it is not in China’s interest, it is maybe in some political interests in the US. But measured approaches seem to be as effective in supporting the base as more dramatic action,” he said, referring to Mr Trump’s blue-collar voter base.

“這不符合美國利益，也不符合中國利益，可能符合美國一部分政治利益。但是在為基礎選民提供幫助方面，謹慎態(tài)度似乎與更激進的舉動同樣有效，”他表示，言下所指的是特朗普的藍領基礎選民。

There is particular concern about the risk of a trade war with China, since it could have wide economic consequences and complicate separate US measures conducted with China to tackle North Korea’s missile and nuclear programme.

眼下，外界對于美中貿易戰(zhàn)的風險格外關注，因為它可能帶來廣泛的經(jīng)濟后果，并使得美國與中國共同采取的應對朝鮮導彈和核計劃問題的單獨措施更加復雜。

Ralph Hamers, chief executive of ING, the Dutch bank, said: “I see a further polarisation of the world economy. I can see some areas that really continue free trade and others that don’t, like the US and frankly the UK, at least until Brexit happens.

荷蘭國際集團(ING)首席執(zhí)行官拉爾夫•哈默斯(Ralph Hamers)表示：“我發(fā)現(xiàn)世界經(jīng)濟兩極化正進一步加深。我可以看到部分地區(qū)確實在繼續(xù)實行自由貿易，而有些地區(qū)不是這樣，比如美國，老實說，還有英國，至少在英國退歐發(fā)生前。”

“Trump will impact [trade] volumes, but it’s beyond Trump,” said Mr Hamers, pointing to the difficult negotiations between the UK and EU over a post-Brexit trade deal as another area where more trade barriers could be erected.

“特朗普將影響(貿易)總額，但影響貿易的不只是特朗普，”哈默斯表示，他指的是英國和歐盟之間就退歐后的貿易協(xié)議進行的艱苦談判，將成為另一個可能設置更多貿易壁壘的領域。

The downbeat comments by the European bankers, who were due to meet Mr Trump at a dinner in Davos on Thursday evening ahead of the US president’s speech on Friday, contrasts with the more supportive remarks by their US peers, such as Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase.

歐洲銀行家的悲觀評論，與其美國同行——比如摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的杰米•戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)——的積極言論形成對比。這些歐洲銀行家周四晚上會在達沃斯晚宴上見到特朗普，后者將于周五發(fā)表演講。

“When Americans speak and they talk about fair, they mean reciprocal,” Mr Dimon told CNBC. “That’s not what the Chinese mean by fair.”

“當美國人講話并說起公平時，他們指的是互惠，”戴蒙向CNBC表示，“這不是中國人所說的公平的意思。”

The Trump administration faces deadlines for presidential action in the weeks ahead on national security investigations into imports of aluminium and steel and a wide-ranging probe of China’s intellectual property regime that many in Washington expect to lead to further tariffs and a crackdown on Chinese investment.

未來幾周，特朗普政府將面臨就兩項調查做出總統(tǒng)決定的最后期限，一是對進口鋁和鋼鐵進行的國家安全調查，二是對中國知識產權制度進行的廣泛調查。華盛頓很多人認為調查將導致更多關稅和對中國投資的打壓。

“I don’t think it will end up in a trade war because there are no gainers and it goes against progress,” said Francisco González, chairman of BBVA of Spain, which has large operations in Mexico and Turkey. The fact that Mr Trump was in Davos was a “positive signal”.

“我不認為會以貿易戰(zhàn)告終，因為這將導致兩敗俱傷的結局，并且是退步，”西班牙對外銀行(BBVA)董事長弗朗西斯科•岡薩雷斯(Francisco González)表示。該銀行在墨西哥和土耳其有大量業(yè)務。特朗普現(xiàn)身達沃斯本身是一個“積極信號”。

Looking for a silver lining, Mr Winters said: “We’ll see if there is a tit-for-tat, [but] what are the Chinese going to tat on the back of the US tit?

尋找一線希望的溫特斯表示：“我們將關注是否存在針鋒相對的情況，(但是)對于美國的劍拔弩張，中國將如何以牙還牙呢?”

“It is possible that they target American banks, it is also possible that they target American defence companies, or electronics companies or consumer goods companies. If they target American banks, on the margin that’s helpful for us. But that’s not a good thing.”

“他們可能會瞄準美國銀行業(yè)，也有可能瞄準美國軍工企業(yè)、電子公司或消費品公司。如果他們瞄準美國銀行業(yè)，結果將有利于我們。但這不是一件好事。”

This week, the 11 remaining members of a trans-Pacific trade deal that the US rejected, including Japan, Canada and Australia, solved their differences and said they aimed to sign an agreement in March. Mr Winters said: “Asia is coming together and Asean is coming together, but America is breaking up.”

本周，包括日本、加拿大和澳大利亞在內的《跨太平洋伙伴關系協(xié)定》(TPP)在美國退出后余下的11個國家解決了分歧，并表示將于3月簽署協(xié)議。溫特斯表示：“亞洲將團結在一起，東盟(Asean)也將團結在一起，但美國就像一盤散沙。”