特朗普時代的政府停擺

There is nothing like a good shutdown to remind America that Washington still exists. But the latest one, which started at midnight on Friday, comes with a special flavour — it coincides with the first anniversary of Donald Trump’s inauguration.

除政府停擺外，再也沒有其他事能更好地提醒美國，華盛頓仍然存在。但是，最近一次政府停擺(從上周五午夜開始)還有另一層特別意味——那一刻正值唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)就職一周年。

Unlike previous shutdowns, including a 16-day one during Barack Obama’s presidency, the latest has been actively willed by the president. Mr Trump tweeted last year that Washington needed “a good shutdown” to clear the air. At several points, Mr Trump and Democratic legislators have struck a deal to keep government open only for Mr Trump to renege shortly afterwards. Now, having allowed federal departments to shutter, Mr Trump is goading Democrats to keep it that way. “Democrats are holding our Military (sic) hostage over their desire to have unchecked illegal immigration,” he tweeted on Saturday.

與之前的政府停擺(包括巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)在任期間長達(dá)16天的停擺)不同，最新一輪政府停擺是特朗普希望看到的。去年特朗普曾在Twitter上發(fā)文稱華盛頓需要“一次好的停擺”來整肅風(fēng)氣。有幾次，特朗普和民主黨議員敲定協(xié)議讓政府繼續(xù)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，只是為了讓特朗普在事后不久食言。如今，在放任聯(lián)邦部門關(guān)閉后，特朗普正不斷刺激民主黨繼續(xù)這么解決。“民主黨為了讓非法移民不受控制而把我們的軍隊(Military，原文如此)作為人質(zhì)，”他上周六發(fā)文稱。

Mr Trump’s line included three contentious points. First, most of the US military is exempt from the shutdown. Second, the Democrats want to protect the 800,000 “Dreamers” — children of illegal immigrants — from deportation rather than open the floodgates to new arrivals. Mr Trump himself has insisted that “we should take care” of the Dreamers. More than once he has said: “I love these kids”. Third, Republicans control both houses of Congress and the White House. Although they fall short of the 60-seat Senate threshold required to pass spending bills, this is America’s first shutdown when one party has controlled all branches of government.

特朗普的話里存在三個有爭議的觀點(diǎn)。第一，美國大多數(shù)軍隊都不會受到停擺影響。第二，民主黨希望保護(hù)80萬“夢想者”(非法移民的孩子)免于被遣返，而不是希望為新進(jìn)入美國的非法移民打開閘門。特朗普本人堅持稱“我們應(yīng)該照顧”夢想者。他不止一次說過：“我愛這些孩子。”第三，共和黨控制著國會兩院和白宮。盡管共和黨沒達(dá)到通過支出法案所要求的60個參議院席位的門檻，但這是美國有史以來第一次在一黨控制所有政府分支情況下的政府停擺。

Yet Mr Trump is betting that the public’s anti-immigration feeling will outweigh its disgust with Washington’s latest shenanigan. The key turning point probably came last week where Mr Trump described Africa and Caribbean countries as “shitholes” — or “shithouses”, according to Republicans in the meeting — which poisoned chances of striking a deal. The two parties are now at an impasse. Mr Trump will only agree to protect the Dreamers if Democrats sign on to fund a border wall with Mexico — the president’s signature campaign promise. Democrats will only vote to keep the government opening if Mr Trump protects the Dreamers, which was one of Mr Obama’s big goals.

不過特朗普正押注于公眾的反移民情緒將超過對政府最新把戲的反感。關(guān)鍵轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)可能出現(xiàn)在上上周，當(dāng)時特朗普把非洲和加勒比地區(qū)的國家稱為“糞坑”或“茅房”(后面這個詞是據(jù)當(dāng)時在場的共和黨人所講)，這毀掉了兩黨敲定協(xié)議的可能性。眼下兩黨陷入僵局。只有民主黨同意為修建美墨邊境墻(特朗普標(biāo)志性的競選承諾)提供資金，特朗普才會同意保護(hù)夢想者。只有特朗普保護(hù)夢想者(奧巴馬當(dāng)年的主要目標(biāo)之一)，民主黨才會投票讓政府運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。

Which party will lose the political game? Large majorities of Americans support giving the Dreamers legal status. But if the game of chicken keeps Washington closed beyond a few days, public sentiment could turn. National parks could close. Salaries will go unpaid. Some government benefits will stop. Mr Trump will brand Democrats as caring more about illegal immigrants than ordinary Americans. Indeed, he is already doing so.

哪一方會輸?shù)暨@場政治博弈呢?絕大多數(shù)美國人支持給予夢想者合法身份。但是如果這場“膽小鬼博弈”讓華盛頓在未來幾天繼續(xù)停擺，公眾情緒可能會反轉(zhuǎn)。國家公園可能會關(guān)閉。工資可能停發(fā)。一些政府福利將停發(fā)。特朗普將給民主黨貼上關(guān)心非法移民勝過關(guān)心普通美國人的標(biāo)簽。的確，他已經(jīng)在這么做了。

Even if DC re-opens on Monday, there are two aspects of the weekend’s chaos that are likely to endure. First, Mr Trump vowed he would be a dealmaker — that was his main selling point. Yet he has a habit of wriggling out of any oral deal he has struck. Last week, John Kelly, his chief of staff, told lawmakers that Mr Trump did not literally want a physical wall covering the entire 2,000 mile US-Mexico border. Mr Trump contradicted him on Twitter as “uninformed”.

即使政府在周一重新開門，造成周末大混亂的兩個方面也可能延續(xù)。第一，特朗普發(fā)誓他會是一名交易撮合者——這是他的主要賣點(diǎn)。不過他還有推脫口頭協(xié)議的習(xí)慣。上上周，他的幕僚長約翰•凱利(John Kelly)向國會議員表示，特朗普并不是真的想要建一堵覆蓋全長2000英里的美墨邊境的實體墻。特朗普在Twitter上反駁他“不了解情況”。

In addition to being unable to uphold a deal with Democrats, Mr Trump disagrees with crucial White House officials. The president’s own people are in a state of rolling confusion about what he wants.

除了無法維持與民主黨的協(xié)議外，特朗普還與白宮關(guān)鍵官員存在分歧。這位總統(tǒng)的自己人正處于不知道他想要什么的混亂狀態(tài)中。

Second, Mr Trump’s antipathy to most forms of immigration outweighs any sentimental attachment to “these kids”. Though logic suggests it would make sense to agree on a special carve-out for Dreamers, Mr Trump so far just cannot bring himself to do it.

第二，特朗普對大多數(shù)移民形式的反感超過了對“這些孩子”的感情。雖然從邏輯上看，同意為夢想者開辟一條特殊道路是明智的做法，但特朗普至今就是無法做到這點(diǎn)。