樂觀情緒推動(dòng)投資者從債券轉(zhuǎn)投股票

Investors’ optimism about global stock markets is spurring a rotation of money out of bonds and into equities and cyclical sectors, according to a closely watched survey of fund managers.

一項(xiàng)備受關(guān)注的對(duì)基金經(jīng)理進(jìn)行的調(diào)查顯示，投資者對(duì)全球股市的樂觀情緒正推動(dòng)資金從債券流向股票，尤其是周期性板塊的股票。

With many equity markets registering all-time and cyclical peaks already this year, optimism over stronger economic growth and expectations of rising inflation has in recent weeks pushed up bond yields.

許多股市今年已經(jīng)達(dá)到歷史或周期高點(diǎn)，與此同時(shí)對(duì)更強(qiáng)勁經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的樂觀情緒以及對(duì)通脹上揚(yáng)的預(yù)期在近幾周推高了債券收益率。

Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Tuesday, in its latest monthly summary of market positioning, noted that allocation to equities has climbed to a two-year high, while money devoted to bonds has fallen to a four-year low. “Investors are the most overweight equities relative to government bonds since August 2014,’’ said the bank.

周二，美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)在其最新月度市場(chǎng)頭寸總結(jié)中指出，對(duì)股票的配置已攀升至兩年高點(diǎn)，而投入債券的資金跌至四年低點(diǎn)。該行表示：“相對(duì)于政府債券，現(xiàn)在是投資者自2014年8月以來(lái)持有股票最多的時(shí)候。”

Investors’ near-term expectations for stocks are strongly positive. The net proportion of fund managers saying they had taken out protection against a sharp fall in equities in the next three months has eased to its lowest level since 2013.

投資者對(duì)股市的短期預(yù)期非常積極。已采取措施防范未來(lái)3個(gè)月股市暴跌的基金經(jīng)理的凈比例，已降至2013年以來(lái)的最低水平。

The majority of investors now do not expect equity markets to peak until 2019 or later, a notable recent extension of their timescale forecasts; last month the majority of those surveyed by BofA said they anticipated the top to come in the second quarter of this year.

如今，多數(shù)投資者都預(yù)計(jì)股市將在2019年或之后才會(huì)見頂，這說明他們最近延伸了對(duì)牛市持續(xù)時(shí)間的預(yù)測(cè);上月，美銀美林調(diào)查的大多數(shù)受訪者表示，他們預(yù)計(jì)股市最高點(diǎn)將于今年第二季度到來(lái)。

“Investors continue to favour equities,” said Michael Hartnett, BofA’s chief investment strategist. “By the end of Q1, we expect peak positioning to combine with peak profits and policy to create a spike in volatility.”

“投資者繼續(xù)青睞股票，”美銀美林首席投資策略師邁克爾•哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)表示，“到第一季度結(jié)束時(shí)，我們預(yù)計(jì)峰值頭寸將與峰值利潤(rùn)和政策相結(jié)合，導(dǎo)致波動(dòng)性飆升。”

Global investors said they preferred the eurozone, emerging markets and Japan as overweight regions in their portfolios. The UK continued to be deeply out of consensus, falling once more to a record low since 2001, said BofA.

全球投資者表示，他們青睞歐元區(qū)、新興市場(chǎng)和日本作為投資組合中的高配地區(qū)。美銀表示，基金經(jīng)理對(duì)英國(guó)仍不能形成共識(shí)，對(duì)英國(guó)股票的配置跌至2001年以來(lái)的新低。

Amid this optimism about global stocks, investors’ expectations for corporate performance are also rising. The net share of investors saying global corporate earnings will rise 10 per cent or more over the next year comes in at the highest level since 2011, and 57 per cent of investors would like to see companies increase their capital spending.

在這波對(duì)全球股市的樂觀情緒中，投資者對(duì)公司業(yè)績(jī)的預(yù)期也在上升。預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)一年全球企業(yè)利潤(rùn)將增長(zhǎng)10%或更多的投資者的凈比例，達(dá)到了2011年以來(lái)的最高水平，而57%的投資者希望看到企業(yè)增加資本支出。

Investors are buying into tech, industrials and emerging markets, and shifting out of defensive stocks such as telecoms and utilities, BofA found. Selling volatility has become the most crowded trade for the first time, eclipsing owning leading US and China tech stocks — known as FAANGs and BATs — and holding bitcoin.

美銀美林發(fā)現(xiàn)，投資者正買入科技、工業(yè)板塊和新興市場(chǎng)，撤出電信和公用事業(yè)等防御型股票。出售波動(dòng)性首次成為最擁擠的交易，超過了持有美國(guó)和中國(guó)的主要科技股——分別為FAANG和BAT——以及持有比特幣。

Inflation and a crash in global bond markets topped investors’ list of tail risks; the second most popular risk scenario was a policy mistake by the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank.

通脹及全球債券市場(chǎng)崩盤高居投資者尾部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)清單之首，排在第二位的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)場(chǎng)景是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)或歐洲央行(ECB)政策失誤。

Average cash balances are at 4.4 per cent, slightly below the 10-year average of 4.5 per cent and well above BofA’s 3.5 per cent “sell” signal.

平均現(xiàn)金余額為4.4%，略低于4.5%的十年平均水平，遠(yuǎn)高于美銀美林3.5%的“賣出”信號(hào)。

Two-thirds of the 183 respondents to BofA’s survey were global investors, with the remaining third being regional specialists. Two-thirds were institutional funds, and in total they manage $526bn of assets. Their weighted average investment time horizon was 7.8 months, a measure that has been slightly lengthening in recent months.

美銀美林調(diào)查的183位受訪者中，三分之二是全球投資者，其余三分之一是地區(qū)專家。三分之二是機(jī)構(gòu)基金，總共管理5260億美元的資產(chǎn)。其加權(quán)平均投資期為7.8個(gè)月，這個(gè)數(shù)字在最近幾個(gè)月略有延長(zhǎng)。