2018年中國鋼鐵產(chǎn)量增速將大幅放緩

China’s steel production growth is expected to slow sharply in 2018 as state-mandated factory closures and policies to protect the environment begin to bite.

預計2018年中國鋼鐵產(chǎn)量增速將會大幅放緩，原因是政府強制關閉工廠和環(huán)保政策開始產(chǎn)生影響。

The world’s largest producer of the metal will experience just a small rise in output of 0.6 per cent this year, a poll of 15 analysts found in a Financial Times survey.

英國《金融時報》對15名分析師進行的調查顯示，作為世界最大的鋼鐵生產(chǎn)國，中國今年的鋼鐵產(chǎn)量將僅小幅上升0.6%。

Steel is often viewed as a barometer of economic activity because it is used in carmaking, construction and manufacturing, which means a significant price move could have repercussions for the broader economy.

鋼鐵常被視為經(jīng)濟活動的晴雨表，因為鋼鐵被用于汽車制造、建筑和制造業(yè)，這意味著鋼鐵的重大價格變動可能會對整體經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生影響。

For the steelmakers, the Chinese slowdown could have positive effects.

對于鋼鐵制造商來說，中國鋼鐵生產(chǎn)放緩可能帶來積極的影響。

A modest increase in production from China, which accounts for about half the 1.7bn tonnes churned out worldwide, could restore balance to a global market that was ravaged by a collapse in prices two years ago due to oversupply.

中國占全球17億噸的鋼鐵產(chǎn)量的一半左右，中國鋼鐵產(chǎn)量僅小幅上升有利于全球市場恢復平衡。兩年前，供應過剩導致的價格暴跌重創(chuàng)了國際鋼鐵市場。

The anticipated slowdown comes despite a robust outlook for the Chinese economy and contrasts with a 5.7 per cent jump in its crude steel output during the first 11 months of 2017, according to World Steel Association figures.

雖然中國經(jīng)濟前景被看好，分析師依然做出了上述的放緩預測。與此形成對比的是，世界鋼鐵協(xié)會(World Steel Association)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2017年頭11個月中國粗鋼產(chǎn)量大幅上升5.7%。

Even so, global annual production in 2018 is slated to increase 2.1 per cent, according to an average of the analysts’ forecasts.

根據(jù)分析師預測的平均值，預計2018年全球鋼鐵產(chǎn)量將增長2.1%。

World output increased 5.4 per cent between January and November 2017, compared with the same period a year before.

2017年1月至11月期間，世界鋼鐵產(chǎn)量同比增長5.4%。

Rod Beddows of HCF International Advisors said: “The total market appears to be reverting to a more stable ‘normal’ with Chinese exports under control.”

HCF International Advisors的羅德•貝多斯(Rod Beddows)說：“總體市場似乎正恢復到更穩(wěn)定的‘常態(tài)’，中國的出口受到控制。”

Donald Trump’s pledge to renew US infrastructure, coupled with the impact of import restrictions against steel deemed unfairly traded, were cited as factors behind the average forecast of a 3.4 per cent jump in the country’s steel production in 2018.

對2018年美國鋼鐵產(chǎn)量增速的平均預測值為3.4%，原因包括唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)關于更新美國基礎設施的承諾，以及美國政府對其認為存在不公平貿(mào)易的鋼鐵的進口限制。

Alistair Ramsay of the publication Metal Bulletin said that US producers had been winning customers back from external suppliers, partly due to a weak dollar.

英國《金屬導報》(Metal Bulletin)的阿利斯泰爾•拉姆齊(Alistair Ramsay)表示，美國生產(chǎn)商不斷從外國供應商那里搶回客戶，美元疲軟是部分原因。