FT社評(píng)：2018年歐洲一體化的前景

Twelve months ago, the theme of the year ahead in Europe promised to be anti-establishment electoral threats to the temperate democracies that had prospered in the continent’s western half since the late 1940s. In the event, to the extent that these threats emanated from rightwing radicals and populists, they were kept in check or defeated (but by no means crushed) in most countries.

歐洲在12個(gè)月前迎來的2017年主題，顯然是那些自上世紀(jì)40年代末以來在整個(gè)西歐繁榮發(fā)展的溫和民主國(guó)家所面臨的“反建制”選舉威脅。結(jié)果，在大多數(shù)國(guó)家，這些由右翼極端分子和民粹主義者帶來的威脅或是被控制住，或是被擊敗(但絕非被徹底擊潰)。

The most acute challenges to Europe’s established political order turned out to be the least expected. On the positive side, these included Emmanuel Macron’s reformist insurgency, which swept aside France’s putrescent party political system and catapulted him to the Elysée Palace. On the negative side, they included a Catalan separatist movement that made a reckless thrust for secession from Spain, winning regional elections as the year came to a close.

歐洲既有政治秩序所遭遇的最嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)，最終卻是那些最讓人意想不到的。從好的一面來看，這些挑戰(zhàn)包括埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)的改革主義異軍突起，不但橫掃法國(guó)腐朽的黨政制度，還把馬克龍送入愛麗舍宮。從不好的一面來看，這些挑戰(zhàn)還有加泰羅尼亞的分裂主義運(yùn)動(dòng)，他們搞了一次試圖從西班牙分離出去的魯莽嘗試，在臨近年末的時(shí)候在地方選舉中獲得了勝利。

In January 2018, it is less obvious what the big theme of the year will be. Some of those who believe Europe truly turned a corner in 2017 would like this to be the year when the EU takes decisive steps forward in its 60-year effort at closer unity. They contend that the geopolitical outlook makes such steps advisable, even essential.

到了2018年1月，新一年的主題就沒那么明顯了。不少人認(rèn)為歐洲在2017年委實(shí)度過了一個(gè)難關(guān)，其中一些人希望，2018年歐盟(EU)能在持續(xù)60年的一體化事業(yè)上采取果斷舉措向前邁進(jìn)。他們認(rèn)為，考慮到地緣政治前景，這類舉措不但是明智的，甚至也是必要的。

According to this world view, China is on the rise. Russia is truculent. North Africa and the Middle East are in ferment. Even before President Donald Trump introduced his brand of wayward foreign policy, the future of US-European relations was becoming unpredictable. Integration is needed to strengthen the EU and make it a counterweight to the world’s great powers.

根據(jù)這種世界觀，中國(guó)正在崛起。俄羅斯本性好斗。北非和中東動(dòng)蕩不安。在美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)開始實(shí)施他標(biāo)志性的反復(fù)無(wú)常的外交政策之前，美歐關(guān)系的未來就已經(jīng)變得很不可預(yù)測(cè)了。歐盟要變得更強(qiáng)、成為可以抗衡世界各大國(guó)的力量，融合勢(shì)在必行。

Such ambitions are associated above all with Mr Macron, who speaks of the need for Europe to develop “grand narratives” and “a kind of political heroism”. His words are easily mocked as pretentious waffle, but in the age of Mr Trump and Brexit they deserve more mature consideration in the English-speaking world. Nothing illustrates the EU’s new-found seriousness of purpose better than the launch in November of a defence and security initiative known as Permanent Structured Co-operation, or Pesco. Some 25 EU states have signed up to it.

這些雄心首先與馬克龍息息相關(guān)，他談到歐洲需要“宏大敘事”和“一種政治英雄主義”。他的言論很容易被嘲笑為自命不凡的夸夸其談，但在這個(gè)特朗普當(dāng)選美國(guó)總統(tǒng)和英國(guó)退歐的時(shí)代，這些話值得英語(yǔ)世界的人們深思熟慮。11月達(dá)成的一項(xiàng)國(guó)防安全倡議——“永久結(jié)構(gòu)性合作”(Permanent Structured Co-operation，簡(jiǎn)稱Pesco)就是歐盟新近認(rèn)真對(duì)待自己目標(biāo)的最佳寫照。有25個(gè)歐盟成員國(guó)簽署了這項(xiàng)協(xié)議。

Likewise there are reasonable grounds to expect progress in 2018 on the economic and financial front. The 19 eurozone states talk of completing the EU’s banking union and of reshaping its crisis-fighting European Stability Mechanism into a European Monetary Fund. For the moment, it is questionable if the Germans, French and others agree on the details. But both objectives are desirable and achievable. In addition, the EU should ensure it does not neglect its self-appointed task of creating a capital markets union.

同樣，人們有理由期待2018年在經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融方面取得進(jìn)展。19個(gè)歐元區(qū)國(guó)家正在討論建成歐盟銀行業(yè)聯(lián)盟，并將旨在應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)的歐洲穩(wěn)定機(jī)制(European Stability Mechanism)重塑為歐洲貨幣基金(European Monetary Fund)。德國(guó)、法國(guó)及其它國(guó)家是否會(huì)在細(xì)節(jié)上達(dá)成一致還未可知，但這兩個(gè)目標(biāo)都是可取的、也是可以實(shí)現(xiàn)的。另外，歐盟應(yīng)確保自身不會(huì)忽視其自許的創(chuàng)建一個(gè)資本市場(chǎng)聯(lián)盟的使命。

Policymakers will need to apply a measure of realism when setting their sights on a more efficient, united EU. No election scheduled for 2018 is likely to be as portentous in its implications as last year’s French and German polls. But the Italian, Hungarian and Swedish elections to be held between March and September may see strong performances from conservative nationalists, anti-immigrant populists and other unconventional forces. Across Europe these forces plan to put a large spanner in the EU’s works in the 2019 European Parliament elections.

當(dāng)政策制定者們著眼于建設(shè)更高效、更團(tuán)結(jié)的歐盟時(shí)，他們需要抱持一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)主義態(tài)度。2018年沒有一場(chǎng)選舉會(huì)像去年法國(guó)和德國(guó)的選舉那樣意義重大，但在意大利、匈牙利和瑞典于今年3月至9月間將舉行的選舉中，我們將有可能目睹保守民族主義者、反移民民粹主義者及其他非傳統(tǒng)勢(shì)力的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)。在整個(gè)歐洲，這些勢(shì)力準(zhǔn)備在2019年的歐洲議會(huì)(European Parliament)選舉中給歐盟的工作造成巨大阻礙。

The path to EU unity is strewn with other obstacles. Northern and southern Europe hold different views on EU integration. More alarming are the acerbic disagreements between western and much of eastern Europe over democracy, the rule of law and migration. With the UK on its way out of the EU, these disputes are emerging as the most formidable barrier of all to a closer union of the 27 remaining states.

歐盟一體化道路還存在著其他障礙。北歐和南歐對(duì)歐盟一體化持不同看法。更令人擔(dān)心的是西歐國(guó)家和部分東歐國(guó)家在民主、法治及移民問題上存在著尖銳的分歧。英國(guó)已走在離開歐盟的路上，這些分歧將成為歐盟剩余27個(gè)成員國(guó)建立更緊密聯(lián)盟最難以逾越的障礙。