Lex專欄：閱文集團(tuán)的估值

One day before the flotation of China Literature, the ebook business of Tencent, Lex said that “optimism is required to imagine a happy ending”. It was clearly in ample supply. To our chagrin, the shares more than doubled within a week.

騰訊(Tencent)電子書業(yè)務(wù)子公司閱文集團(tuán)(China Literature)上市前一天，本專欄稱“要想象一個(gè)美好的結(jié)局是需要樂(lè)觀的”。顯然，樂(lè)觀情緒的供應(yīng)充足得很。令我們懊惱的是，該股的股價(jià)在一周內(nèi)翻了一倍多。

Although the stock is now “only” 49 per cent above the offer price, it still looks expensive given the company’s profit prospects. Few will care. The bullishness reflects enthusiasm for Hong Kong-listed equities among mainland investors.

盡管當(dāng)前股價(jià)“僅比”發(fā)行價(jià)高出49%，但從該公司的盈利前景看，它仍然看起來(lái)昂貴。沒什么人會(huì)關(guān)心這一點(diǎn)?？礉q情緒反映了內(nèi)地投資者對(duì)香港上市股票的熱情。

Lex argued against a high valuation for China Literature for two reasons: Firstly, operations and content are pricey to acquire and have cost structures more akin to old-economy newspapers than social media websites. Secondly, content is mostly distributed through the apps of controlling shareholder Tencent. Minority shareholders will struggle to defend the business against its parent’s ability to extract a rent for this.

出于兩個(gè)原因，本專欄認(rèn)為閱文集團(tuán)的估值不應(yīng)這么高：首先，運(yùn)營(yíng)以及購(gòu)買內(nèi)容的成本高昂，同時(shí)該公司的成本結(jié)構(gòu)更像舊經(jīng)濟(jì)的報(bào)紙，而不像社交媒體網(wǎng)站。其次，內(nèi)容主要通過(guò)控股股東騰訊的app分發(fā)。針對(duì)母公司對(duì)此提取“租金”的能力，少數(shù)股股東將難以捍衛(wèi)該企業(yè)。

As is usual practice in China, only a small part of the subsidiary was sold. This has left pre-float shareholders toasting large paper profits; with the shares at HK$81 apiece, managers owning 14 per cent of the company are sitting on stock worth $1.3bn.

按照中國(guó)的通常做法，這家子公司只有一小部分被出售。這使得上市前的股東們坐享巨額紙面利潤(rùn)：每股81港元的股價(jià)意味著，擁有公司14%股權(quán)的經(jīng)理人擁有價(jià)值13億美元的股份。

Individual investors oversubscribed the issue 625 times. Mainland investors are used to this game. Regulators there allow a maximum initial valuation of 23 times earnings, much less than the average ratio achieved by shares in secondary trading. This almost guarantees gains for those who manage to get an initial allocation; China Literature’s price/earnings ratio at the point of the initial public offering exceeded 200.

散戶投資者對(duì)此次發(fā)行超額認(rèn)購(gòu)625倍。內(nèi)地投資者習(xí)慣于這種游戲。那里的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)允許最高23倍的發(fā)行市盈率，遠(yuǎn)低于二級(jí)交易達(dá)到的平均市盈率。這意味著那些設(shè)法獲得初始股票分配的人幾乎穩(wěn)賺不賠：閱文集團(tuán)在首次公開發(fā)行(IPO)時(shí)的市盈率超過(guò)200倍。

Those investors are now able to participate in Hong Kong’s stock market via the Connect links to and from the exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Volumes from those markets to Hong Kong have increased sixfold since the start of the year, exacerbating volatility in a market that has always contained a substantial speculative element.

這些投資者現(xiàn)在可以通過(guò)滬港通和深港通進(jìn)入香港股市。自2017年初以來(lái)，來(lái)自這兩個(gè)機(jī)制的資金在香港的交易量增長(zhǎng)了六倍，加劇了這個(gè)一直帶有較大投機(jī)因素的市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)性。