中國(guó)大舉推進(jìn)數(shù)字化

From a consumer point of view, China is already a global leader but its digitisation of industries still lags behind the US. However, China is catching up rapidly and another powerful wave of digitisation in businesses is starting to sweep through the economy, promising creative destruction in inefficient sectors on a grand scale.

從消費(fèi)者的角度來(lái)看，中國(guó)已是全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，但是其產(chǎn)業(yè)數(shù)字化程度仍落后于美國(guó)。然而，中國(guó)正在迅速趕上，另一場(chǎng)強(qiáng)勁的數(shù)字化浪潮開(kāi)始在整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)中興起，有望大規(guī)模顛覆許多效率低下的行業(yè)。

China is well established as a digital player in consumer-facing industries with the largest ecommerce market in the world, accounting for over 40 per cent of global ecommerce transactions. Nevertheless, huge upside potential remains. China has a huge, relatively young home consumer market — and Chinese consumers are eager and willing to embrace all things digital.

在面向消費(fèi)者的行業(yè)，中國(guó)的數(shù)字化已很成熟，擁有全球最大的電子商務(wù)市場(chǎng)，電子商務(wù)交易量占到全球的40%以上。不過(guò)，中國(guó)仍有巨大的上升空間。中國(guó)擁有龐大而相對(duì)年輕的家庭消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)——中國(guó)消費(fèi)者渴望并樂(lè)于在一切領(lǐng)域擁抱數(shù)字化。

Take just one example: connected cars. A McKinsey Survey of more than 3,000 respondents in China, Germany, and the United States found that 60 per cent of Chinese respondents would switch car manufacturers to obtain connectivity features, compared with only 20 per cent in Germany.

就舉一個(gè)例子：聯(lián)網(wǎng)汽車(chē)(connected-car)。麥肯錫(McKinsey)針對(duì)中國(guó)、德國(guó)和美國(guó)的3000位受訪者的一份調(diào)查報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn)，60%的中國(guó)人愿意為獲得聯(lián)網(wǎng)功能而嘗試新的汽車(chē)制造商，德國(guó)人的這個(gè)比例僅為20%。

Many sectors in China are ripe for digital disruption because they are fragmented and inefficient. In freight, for instance, about 95 per cent of China’s estimated 8m registered trucking companies are individuals or small companies. Less than 1 per cent of companies have 50 trucks or more in their fleets. A lack of transparent, real-time information on routing means that China’s average empty running ratio in road transport is about 40 per cent, compared with 10 to 15 per cent on average in Germany and the United States.

在中國(guó)的許多部門(mén)，數(shù)字化顛覆的時(shí)機(jī)已成熟，因?yàn)檫@些行業(yè)處于分散和低效的狀態(tài)。例如，在貨運(yùn)方面，中國(guó)800萬(wàn)注冊(cè)貨運(yùn)公司約有95%是個(gè)人或小公司。擁有50輛以上卡車(chē)的公司不到1%。缺乏透明、實(shí)時(shí)的路線信息意味著，中國(guó)公路運(yùn)輸?shù)钠骄蛰d率約為40%，而德國(guó)和美國(guó)的這個(gè)數(shù)字為10%至15%。

China may lead the world on ecommerce but its express delivery industry has not been up to the task. About one-quarter of intercity express delivery did not meet delivery targets. Faced with demands for more efficiency and speed from China’s ecommerce giants, the industry is embracing digital technologies. Alibaba backed a new big-data platform connected to many express-delivery companies that can process 9tn lines of information per day and mobilise 1.7m drivers. The power of such digital approaches is now evident: on China’s Singles Day shopping bonanza, the number of days it takes to deliver 100m packages has fallen from nine in 2013 to only three-and-a half in 2016.

中國(guó)的電子商務(wù)也許領(lǐng)先世界，但是快遞業(yè)卻沒(méi)有跟上。大約四分之一的城際快遞沒(méi)有完成交付目標(biāo)。面對(duì)來(lái)自中國(guó)電商巨頭的提高效率和速度的需求，該行業(yè)正在擁抱數(shù)字技術(shù)。阿里巴巴(Alibaba)入股了一個(gè)把許多家快遞公司聯(lián)接在一起的新的大數(shù)據(jù)平臺(tái)，每天可以處理9萬(wàn)億行信息，調(diào)配170萬(wàn)名司機(jī)。這種數(shù)字化手段的威力現(xiàn)在已顯露出來(lái)：在中國(guó)的單身節(jié)(Singles Day)購(gòu)物狂歡中，交付1億個(gè)包裹所需天數(shù)從2013年的9天縮短到了2016年的僅3.5天。

Such huge efficiency gains can be achieved through digital means across industries. New McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) research finds that digitisation can potentially shift (and create) 10 to 45 per cent of industry revenue pools in China by 2030, and, in the process, vault China’s economy to new levels of global competitiveness.

如此巨大的效率提升可以通過(guò)各行各業(yè)的數(shù)字手段來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)。麥肯錫全球研究院(MGI)的最新研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，到2030年，數(shù)字化有潛力改變(和創(chuàng)造)中國(guó)10%到45%的產(chǎn)業(yè)收入，并在此過(guò)程中把中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力提升到新水平。

Potentially the biggest transformation could be in health care. China has made great strides since reform of the system in 2009, but it still faces considerable challenges. There is an imbalance in provision. Urban residents have two to three times better access to health-care professionals than those living in rural areas, and 51 per cent of China’s top 100 hospitals are in just three cities: Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. In such a vast country as China, the potential for internet of things and artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled health care — delivered remotely and digitally — is enormous. The government’s Internet Plus Health Care plan published early this year discussed giving patients access to their own medical data through mobile terminals.

潛在的最大轉(zhuǎn)變可能發(fā)生在醫(yī)療領(lǐng)域。自2009年醫(yī)療體制改革以來(lái)，中國(guó)已經(jīng)取得長(zhǎng)足的進(jìn)步，但仍面臨相當(dāng)大的挑戰(zhàn)。醫(yī)療服務(wù)供給存在不平衡。城市居民人均醫(yī)療人員數(shù)量是農(nóng)村居民的兩到三倍，中國(guó)最好的100家醫(yī)院有51%位于北京、廣州和上海這三座城市。在中國(guó)這樣一個(gè)幅員遼闊的國(guó)家，搭載物聯(lián)網(wǎng)和人工智能(AI)技術(shù)的遠(yuǎn)程、數(shù)字化醫(yī)療擁有巨大潛力。政府今年初發(fā)布的“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+醫(yī)療”計(jì)劃討論了讓病人能夠通過(guò)移動(dòng)終端訪問(wèn)他們自己的醫(yī)療數(shù)據(jù)。

China’s health care system today has relatively low levels of digitisation. In 2015, 29 per cent of hospitals in China had still not installed electronic medical records systems. In 2014, more than half of Chinese hospitals had not established systems for the exchange of clinical data, compared with only 6 per cent in the United States. The government has recognised that the system is ripe for a big-data revolution, introducing for the first time regulations on how big data in the health-care sectors are collected, stored and used.

當(dāng)前中國(guó)醫(yī)療體系的數(shù)字化水平相對(duì)較低。2015年，中國(guó)29%的醫(yī)院尚未安裝電子病歷系統(tǒng)。2014年，中國(guó)逾一半的醫(yī)院還未建立臨床數(shù)據(jù)交換系統(tǒng)，而美國(guó)的這個(gè)比例僅為6%。中國(guó)政府已認(rèn)識(shí)到，在醫(yī)療體系中掀起大數(shù)據(jù)革命的時(shí)機(jī)已成熟，并首次出臺(tái)了有關(guān)在醫(yī)療領(lǐng)域如何收集、存儲(chǔ)和使用大數(shù)據(jù)的相關(guān)規(guī)定。

China’s internet giants are moving into health-care big data. Baidu is building Baidu Cloud with the government of Beijing, which will monitor data from wearables and devices. Alibaba has launched an e-health app called Future Hospital that connects about 200 hospitals in more than 20 provinces and 40 cities across the country; the app offers information on what hospitals have beds, and the means to make appointments, payments, and access medical records.

中國(guó)的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭正在進(jìn)軍醫(yī)療大數(shù)據(jù)領(lǐng)域。百度(Baidu)正在與北京市政府合作打造健康云，將監(jiān)測(cè)來(lái)自可穿戴設(shè)備和其他智能健康設(shè)備的數(shù)據(jù)。阿里巴巴推出了名為“未來(lái)醫(yī)院”的電子醫(yī)療服務(wù)，它連接至全國(guó)20多個(gè)省的40個(gè)城市的約200家醫(yī)院;該服務(wù)提供醫(yī)院空余床位信息，患者還可通過(guò)該服務(wù)預(yù)約掛號(hào)、繳費(fèi)和查看病歷。

Such innovations offer just a tiny snapshot of China’s dynamic, expanding digital ecosystem whose growth has been, to a large extent, propelled by the largest internet players.

此類(lèi)創(chuàng)新為我們一窺中國(guó)充滿活力、不斷擴(kuò)張的數(shù)字生態(tài)系統(tǒng)提供了一個(gè)狹窄的窗口。這個(gè)系統(tǒng)的增長(zhǎng)，在很大程度上源自那些互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭的推動(dòng)。

Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent provided 42 per cent of all venture capital investment in China last year, and one in five top Chinese start-ups were founded by one of the three or their alumni (an additional 30 per cent of them receive funding from these three).

去年，百度、阿里巴巴和騰訊(Tencent)占據(jù)了中國(guó)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資總額的42%，中國(guó)頂級(jí)創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)有五分之一是由這三家企業(yè)之一或它們的前員工創(chuàng)立的(另有30%的頂級(jí)創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)得到了這三家企業(yè)的注資)。

Digital players also benefit from the fact that they enjoy such close links to hardware manufacturers. A sign of changing times is the fact that Shenzhen used to be known as the world center for shanzhai, or copycat products; now the city is known as China’s open innovation center. The city is home to drone manufacturer DJI, which commands more than 70 per cent of the global consumer drone market, HAX, a hardware-focused incubator that brings entrepreneurs from around the world for rapid prototyping and commercialisation, and Shenzhen Capital Group whose portfolio of more than 600 companies is increasingly internet-focused.

數(shù)字玩家們也受益于如下事實(shí)：它們與硬件制造商之間聯(lián)系密切。反映當(dāng)今時(shí)代瞬息萬(wàn)變的一個(gè)標(biāo)志是：曾經(jīng)被稱(chēng)為世界山寨中心的深圳，現(xiàn)在被稱(chēng)為中國(guó)的開(kāi)放式創(chuàng)新中心。深圳是如下這幾家公司的所在地：無(wú)人機(jī)制造商大疆創(chuàng)新科技(DJI)，擁有全球消費(fèi)無(wú)人機(jī)市場(chǎng)70%以上的份額;HAX加速器，一家專(zhuān)注于硬件領(lǐng)域的孵化器，為世界各地的企業(yè)家提供快速原型設(shè)計(jì)和商品化服務(wù);深創(chuàng)投(Shenzhen Capital Group)，已投資超過(guò)600家公司，并且越來(lái)越專(zhuān)注于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)領(lǐng)域的業(yè)務(wù)。

The government is backing digital strongly. It is explicitly targeting an AI applications market of more than Rmb100bn ($15bn) value by next year, is mobilising resources to invest $180bn on building China’s 5G mobile network over the next seven years and is supporting the development of quantum technology.

政府正在大力支持?jǐn)?shù)字化。它明確提出了到2020年人工智能核心產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模超過(guò)1500億元人民幣的目標(biāo)，并將調(diào)動(dòng)資源實(shí)現(xiàn)未來(lái)七年投資1800億美元興建中國(guó)的5G移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)，還將支持量子技術(shù)的發(fā)展。

This combination of enthusiastic consumers, a robust ecosystem and a supportive government has already guaranteed China increasing prominence on the global digital landscape. China’s outbound venture capital totalled $38bn in 2014-16, up from just $6bn in 2011-13, about three-quarters of which is pouring into digital related sectors. China is already in the global top three for venture-capital investment in virtual reality, autonomous vehicles, 3-D printing, robotics, drones and AI.

熱情的消費(fèi)者、強(qiáng)大的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)加上政府的大力支持，共同保證了中國(guó)在全球數(shù)字領(lǐng)域占據(jù)日益突出的地位。從2014年到2016年，中國(guó)投向海外的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本總額達(dá)到380億美元——高于2011年至2013年的60億美元——其中約四分之三的資金投入了數(shù)字相關(guān)領(lǐng)域。中國(guó)在虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)(VR)、自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)、3D打印、機(jī)器人、無(wú)人機(jī)和人工智能方面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資金額已進(jìn)入全球三甲。

Strength at home is the anchor to China’s digital globalisation — and there is much more to come.

中國(guó)自身的實(shí)力支撐其在數(shù)字領(lǐng)域方面走向全球——未來(lái)還會(huì)有更多行動(dòng)。

Jonathan Woetzel is a senior partner of McKinsey & Company and a director of the McKinsey Global Institute based in Shanghai.

華強(qiáng)森(Jonathan Woetzel)為麥肯錫(McKinsey)高級(jí)合伙人、駐上海的麥肯錫全球研究院院長(zhǎng)