FT社評(píng)：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將失去一位出色的主席

The Federal Reserve can take some blame for failing to see risks building up in the years preceding the global financial crisis. But perhaps more than any other major policymaking institution in the world, the Fed has acquitted itself well in the decade since.

在全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)前的幾年里，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)未能看清風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在逐漸累積，這一點(diǎn)或許應(yīng)該受到責(zé)備。但危機(jī)后十年來，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)表現(xiàn)得或許比世界上其他任何主要的政策制定機(jī)構(gòu)都好。

The competent and right-minded running of the Fed remains absolutely indispensable to stability in the US and beyond. It is unfortunate therefore that Janet Yellen, who has chaired the central bank since 2013, will be replaced when her term expires in February.

美國及其他地區(qū)的穩(wěn)定仍離不開美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)稱職、英明的運(yùn)作。可惜，自2013年起出任美國央行行長的珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)將于明年2月任期屆滿后離任。

Ms Yellen’s tenure has largely pursued the philosophy and style of her predecessor, Ben Bernanke. The Yellen Fed has been prepared to err on the side of monetary laxity and it has continued to use historically unusual tools to provide stimulus. Although it has tightened policy, probably somewhat prematurely, it has clearly signalled a gradual approach distinct from the traditional Fed style of an inexorable sequence of moves.

擔(dān)任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席以來，耶倫大體上延續(xù)了其前任本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)的理念和做派。耶倫領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)偏向于寬松的貨幣政策立場，持續(xù)以非常規(guī)手段刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)。雖然美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收緊了政策——也許有點(diǎn)過早了——但它已經(jīng)表明要一改以往雷厲風(fēng)行采取連串行動(dòng)的作風(fēng)，采取一種循序漸進(jìn)的作法。

Ms Yellen has repeatedly emphasised that the economy has not returned to a pre-crisis normal — it has recently delivered robust growth without much inflationary pressure — and monetary policy must adapt to that.

耶倫一再強(qiáng)調(diào)，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)尚未恢復(fù)到危機(jī)前的常態(tài)——最近，在沒有太多通脹壓力的情況下美國經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)了強(qiáng)勁的增長——而貨幣政策必須順應(yīng)這種形勢。

Her style of governing, too, has been apposite in a world of great uncertainty. In contrast with Mr Bernanke’s predecessor, Alan Greenspan, Ms Yellen has run the Fed in a much more collegiate fashion. She was prepared to countenance dissent without it descending into cacophony and division.

耶倫的管理風(fēng)格也很切合當(dāng)今充滿極大不確定性的世界。與伯南克的前任艾倫•格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)相比，耶倫以一種更學(xué)院派的方式管理美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)。她愿意接受不同意見，不會(huì)讓異議淪為不和與分歧。

In terms of the Fed’s philosophy of monetary policy, and probably its management style, Ms Yellen’s successor, Jay Powell, is likely to show a welcome degree of continuity. But his is only one of a string of appointments that President Donald Trump is due to make to the Fed’s board, including choosing a new vice-chairman.

耶倫的繼任者杰伊•鮑威爾(Jay Powell)也許會(huì)令人可喜地在某種程度上延續(xù)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)貨幣政策理念——或許還有管理風(fēng)格。但鮑威爾出任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席只是美國總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)將對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事會(huì)做出的一系列任命之一，這些任命中包括選定一位新的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)副主席。

If Mr Trump appoints to that position a monetary policy hawk such as John Taylor, the Stanford economist, it could set the stage for serious internal disagreements and possibly too rapid a withdrawal of stimulus.

如果特朗普任命一位貨幣政策鷹派人物擔(dān)任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)副主席，如斯坦福大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家約翰•泰勒(John Taylor)，就有可能導(dǎo)致美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的內(nèi)部分歧及過快地撤銷刺激舉措。

With regard to one of the Fed’s other main roles, financial regulation, Mr Trump has already installed a vice-chairman for banking supervision, Randal Quarles, whose liberalising instincts stand in unwelcome contrast to Ms Yellen’s more cautious approach.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)其他的主要職責(zé)之一是金融監(jiān)管，這方面特朗普已經(jīng)任命了一位負(fù)責(zé)銀行業(yè)監(jiān)管的副主席，蘭德爾•夸爾斯(Randal Quarles)，其自由化的傾向有別于耶倫那種更為謹(jǐn)慎的作法，不太受歡迎。

Ms Yellen has said that she will leave the board of governors altogether when her term as chair is completed, waiving the right to remain as a member until 2024. That is a pity, because a strong and articulate voice in favour of the current approach to monetary policy and financial regulation could be extremely valuable.

耶倫已表示其主席任期屆滿后會(huì)徹底離開美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事會(huì)，放棄將理事身份保留至2024年的權(quán)利。這不免令人遺憾，因?yàn)橐粋€(gè)強(qiáng)有力的明確支持當(dāng)前貨幣政策與金融監(jiān)管方針的聲音將是極其寶貴的。

In her absence, Mr Powell must brace himself for pushback from within the Fed’s open market committee. He will also face continued criticism in Congress.

耶倫離任后，鮑威爾必須準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對(duì)來自美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)公開市場委員會(huì)內(nèi)部的反彈，他還將面臨國會(huì)的不斷批評(píng)。

Mr Trump has also shown little compunction about trying to push any Washington institution he can to do his bidding, and may well believe that Mr Powell is in his debt.

特朗普對(duì)自己使出渾身解數(shù)迫使華盛頓一切機(jī)構(gòu)聽命于他沒表現(xiàn)出絲毫悔意，并很可能認(rèn)為鮑威爾要對(duì)他感恩戴德。

A domineering president with eccentric beliefs and a weak Fed can be a disastrous combination, as the Fed chairmanship of Arthur Burns during the inflationary Nixon administration years revealed.

一位思想偏執(zhí)、剛愎自用的總統(tǒng)再配上一個(gè)軟弱的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)也許是場災(zāi)難，尼克松執(zhí)政期間連年的通貨膨脹就說明了這一點(diǎn)，那時(shí)的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席是亞瑟•伯恩斯(Arthur Burns)。

Ms Yellen has not had to face a serious crisis during her term as chair; Mr Powell may not be so lucky.

耶倫擔(dān)任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席期間沒有遭遇嚴(yán)重的危機(jī);鮑威爾可能沒那么幸運(yùn)。

Ms Yellen will leave office with a fine record of public service. Her term as chair may look even better in retrospect if the governance of the Fed is weakened.

耶倫將帶著良好的政績離任。如果一個(gè)主席對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的管理被削弱，那么他日回頭來看耶倫的任期將顯得更為出彩。