經(jīng)合組織稱提升投資才能維持增長(zhǎng)

Business investment rates in most large economies remain too low to keep the global economy powering forward for long, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development warned on Tuesday.

經(jīng)合組織(OECD)周二警告稱，多數(shù)大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體的企業(yè)投資率仍然過(guò)低，無(wú)法維持全球經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)久增長(zhǎng)。

In its latest Economic Outlook, the club of mostly rich nations said the momentum and high global growth rates would continue next year but fade in 2019 unless investment improved.

這個(gè)基本由富裕國(guó)家組成的組織在其最新的《經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》(Economic Outlook)中表示，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)明年將繼續(xù)保持增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭和高增長(zhǎng)率，但在2019年將走下坡路——除非投資情況有所改善。

Catherine Mann, chief economist, said: “Policy is currently stimulative but in the absence of structural reforms we won’t get the private sector investment to get the productivity improvements we need.”

首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家凱瑟琳•曼(Catherine Mann)表示：“目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策是刺激性的，但不進(jìn)行結(jié)構(gòu)性改革，我們就不會(huì)看到實(shí)現(xiàn)必要生產(chǎn)率提高所需的私人部門投資。”

The organisation, which is tasked with improving economic performance, said the upturn is largely cyclical and has been spurred on by central banks’ efforts to lower the cost of borrowing and governments’ easing back on austerity.

承擔(dān)改善全球經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)任務(wù)的經(jīng)合組織表示，這種好轉(zhuǎn)在很大程度上是周期性的，且一直受到如下兩個(gè)因素的推動(dòng)：央行降低借貸成本，政府財(cái)政政策由緊縮轉(zhuǎn)向?qū)捤伞?/p>

This combination, Ms Mann said, had led to the strongest synchronised upturn since 2010, with all the 35 advanced economy countries that belong to the OECD growing and most of them enjoying an accelerating expansion.

曼表示，這兩個(gè)因素共同推動(dòng)了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)2010年以來(lái)最強(qiáng)勁的同步好轉(zhuǎn)，經(jīng)合組織內(nèi)35個(gè)先進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)體都在增長(zhǎng)，其中大部分都在加速擴(kuò)張。

“Countries should use this period of growth for policies to ensure the dynamism continues when fiscal and monetary policy stimulus is no longer active,” she said.

她說(shuō)：“各國(guó)應(yīng)利用這個(gè)增長(zhǎng)時(shí)期推行一些政策，以確保不再有財(cái)政和貨幣政策刺激時(shí)，這種活力可以繼續(xù)下去。”

The OECD forecasts that the global economy will expand 3.6 per cent this year, rising to 3.7 per cent in 2018, just below the 2005-2014 average, but will ease back to 3.6 per cent in 2019. This “hump shape” of projected growth rates is expected to occur throughout the largest economies — China, the eurozone, the US and Japan — because business investment has only just climbed back to normal levels, when it would traditionally be far above average levels at similar points in previous cycles.

經(jīng)合組織預(yù)測(cè)今年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率將為3.6%，到2018年將升至3.7%，略低于2005年至2014年的平均水平，但到2019年將回落到3.6%。這一“駝峰狀”預(yù)測(cè)增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)在所有大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體——中國(guó)、歐元區(qū)、美國(guó)和日本——因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)投資才僅回升至正常水平，而在此前周期中的類似時(shí)點(diǎn)，企業(yè)投資通常要遠(yuǎn)高于平均水平。