FT社評(píng)：也門正面臨本世紀(jì)比較大饑荒

Famine has killed at least 105m people since 1870, according to research conducted by the World Peace Foundation. The vast majority were victims of political decisions and acts of war rather than drought. But by the turn of the millennium such man-made disaster had diminished to the extent that experts in the field, such as the UK academic and writer Alex de Waal, felt mass starvation might be a thing of the past.

根據(jù)世界和平基金會(huì)(World Peace Foundation)的調(diào)查，自1870年以來(lái)，饑荒已至少造成1.05億人死亡，其中大多數(shù)人死于政治決定和戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)行為造成的饑荒，而非干旱造成的饑荒。但到了世紀(jì)之交，這種人為災(zāi)難已經(jīng)大大減少，以至該領(lǐng)域的專家——如英國(guó)學(xué)者兼作家亞歷克斯•德瓦爾(Alex de Waal)——認(rèn)為，大規(guī)模饑荒可能已成為過去。

This year that progress has dramatically reversed. The renewed use of starvation as a weapon of war is threatening millions of lives in Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia and Yemen. The situation in Yemen is the most catastrophic.

今年這一進(jìn)展出現(xiàn)了重大倒退。饑荒作為一個(gè)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)武器的重新啟用，正威脅著尼日利亞、南蘇丹、索馬里和也門的無(wú)數(shù)條生命。其中也門的情況是最具災(zāi)難性的。

The conflict there descended into a new circle of hell after Saudi Arabia committed its air force to defeating Houthi rebels in March 2015. In the process, roads, bridges and markets have been destroyed, the container docks at the port of al-Hudaida were bombed, and other infrastructure ruined. At Riyadh’s insistence and with the backing of Britain and the US, the UN Security Council imposed a blockade on the country.

在沙特阿拉伯于2015年3月投入空軍打擊胡塞叛軍之后，也門的沖突陷入新一輪地獄。在這一過程中，道路、橋梁和集市遭到破壞，荷臺(tái)達(dá)(al-Hudaida)港口的集裝箱碼頭遭到轟炸，其他基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施也被毀。在利雅得的堅(jiān)持以及英美的支持下，聯(lián)合國(guó)安理會(huì)(UN Security Council)對(duì)也門實(shí)施了封鎖。

Its purpose is to prevent weapons reaching the rebels and in theory food is exempted. In practice, laborious inspection procedures mean food is reaching hungry mouths fatally slowly. And that was before a recent decision by Saudi Arabia to block humanitarian aid in retaliation for a missile fired at Riyadh earlier this month.

封鎖的目的是阻止叛軍獲得武器，理論上食物不在封鎖范圍之內(nèi)。但在實(shí)踐中，繁瑣的檢查程序意味著饑民獲得食物的速度慢到致命的程度。這還是之前的情況，最近沙特決定封鎖人道主義援助，以報(bào)復(fù)本月早些時(shí)候一枚飛往利雅得的導(dǎo)彈。

The consequences are terrifying. The UN says two-thirds of Yemen’s 28m population face shortages of food and clean water. A staggering 7m are now on the brink of famine. A cholera epidemic is raging. The war itself has claimed an estimated 10,000 people. But as was the case in most of the worst 20th-century conflicts, starvation is certain to be a greater killer. Mark Lowcock, the UN undersecretary-general for humanitarian affairs, last week said the continued closure of borders to aid shipments would threaten “the largest famine the world has seen for many decades”. The blockade, which Saudi Arabia appears to have partially lifted at the weekend, is tantamount to a war crime. And Riyadh’s allies should be wary of complicity.

其后果是可怕的。聯(lián)合國(guó)稱也門2800萬(wàn)人口中有三分??之二面臨食物和清潔飲用水短缺。現(xiàn)在面臨饑荒的人數(shù)高達(dá)700萬(wàn)?；魜y疫情正在肆虐。戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)本身?yè)?jù)估計(jì)造成1萬(wàn)人死亡。但是與20世紀(jì)絕大多數(shù)最嚴(yán)重沖突的情況一樣，饑餓肯定將導(dǎo)致更多人死亡。聯(lián)合國(guó)負(fù)責(zé)人道主義事務(wù)的副秘書長(zhǎng)馬克•洛考克(Mark Lowcock)日前表示，繼續(xù)封鎖救援物資可能導(dǎo)致“數(shù)十年來(lái)全球最大饑荒”。這場(chǎng)封鎖——不久前沙特似乎部分解除了封鎖——無(wú)異于戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)罪行。利雅得的盟友應(yīng)該當(dāng)心成為幫兇。

Before he was forced to resign last month over allegations of sexual harassment, Sir Michael Fallon, then the UK’s defence secretary, begged MPs to cease all criticism of the kingdom. This risked jeopardising BAE Systems’ £4bn deal to sell the kingdom fighter jets, he said. Sir Michael showed similar blindness about what is morally acceptable in his public evidence to the defence committee. He is gone. But sadly, his posture reflected that of a government which in its dealings with Saudi Arabia treats human rights as little more than a commercial inconvenience.

時(shí)任英國(guó)國(guó)防大臣的邁克爾•法倫爵士(Sir Michael Fallon)在上個(gè)月因性騷擾指控而被迫辭職前，曾懇求國(guó)會(huì)議員停止對(duì)沙特的一切批評(píng)。他稱，這些批評(píng)可能危及BAE系統(tǒng)公司(BAE Systems)向沙特出售戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)的40億英鎊大單。在向國(guó)防委員會(huì)的證言中，法倫也表現(xiàn)出了對(duì)道德底線的類似漠視。他離開了。但可悲的是，他的立場(chǎng)反映出英國(guó)政府在與沙特打交道時(shí)只是把人權(quán)問題當(dāng)做妨礙貿(mào)易的一個(gè)因素。

Donald Trump’s administration has been more craven still in encouraging Saudi Arabian over-reach. Washington’s silence over the tragedy unfolding in Yemen is as deafening as it is strategically misguided. The intervention in Yemen was supposed to mark the arrival of a more assertive Saudi Arabia, rallying Sunni and other allies to counter Iranian, and Shia, influence. Instead, Saudi forces have proved as ineffectual as they are brutish. Even before Iran was actively involved, Riyadh was unable to defeat the rag-tag rebels. There is little sign they are any closer now.

特朗普(Trump)政府甚至更加怯懦的立場(chǎng)，鼓勵(lì)了沙特的過分行為。美國(guó)政府對(duì)正在也門上演的這場(chǎng)悲劇的沉默不僅令人難以忍受，在戰(zhàn)略上也是極其錯(cuò)誤的。沙特對(duì)也門的干涉本應(yīng)該標(biāo)志著沙特以更加堅(jiān)定自信的姿態(tài)出現(xiàn)在世人面前，聯(lián)合遜尼派和其他盟友一起對(duì)抗伊朗和什葉派勢(shì)力。相反，沙特部隊(duì)被證明既沒用又殘暴。即使在伊朗積極參與進(jìn)來(lái)前，沙特也沒能打敗烏合之眾的叛軍。眼下也沒有什么跡象顯示沙特距離勝利更近了。

There is also little doubt that without a change of heart in Riyadh, Yemenis will starve on a scale the 21st century has yet to see. In such circumstances, the US and Britain would be found guilty of complicity in crimes committed in the name of Saudi hubris.

此外，毫無(wú)疑問的是，如果沙特不改變心意，也門人將遭受21世紀(jì)以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的饑荒。在這種局面下，美國(guó)和英國(guó)會(huì)是沙特的自大所犯下罪行的幫兇。