Snap的未來(lái)不能指望騰訊

Even by the tumultuous standards of its short life as a public company, Snap has had a rollercoaster week.

Snap在其上市以來(lái)的短暫時(shí)間里股價(jià)一直波動(dòng)巨大，不過(guò)即便以其自身的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)衡量，這周的行情也猶如“過(guò)山車(chē)”一般。

On Monday its main app, Snapchat, suffered a global service outage for several hours. Tuesday brought the third successive earnings report to miss Wall Street’s estimate since its March initial public offering, sending its stock plunging to below $13.

周一，Snap的主要應(yīng)用Snapchat遭遇持續(xù)數(shù)小時(shí)的全球服務(wù)中斷。周二，Snap公布的財(cái)報(bào)自今年3月首次公開(kāi)發(fā)行(IPO)以來(lái)連續(xù)第三次不及華爾街預(yù)期，導(dǎo)致其股價(jià)下挫至13美元以下。

Wednesday morning then brought a slight reprieve. Snap’s quarterly regulatory filing revealed that Tencent, the Chinese internet group behind WeChat, had quietly built a 12 per cent stake in the Los Angeles-based company, worth more than $2bn.

接著，周三早晨的消息讓人略為松了一口氣。Snap上報(bào)的季度監(jiān)管文件顯示，旗下?lián)碛形⑿?WeChat)的中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)集團(tuán)騰訊(Tencent)已默默將其對(duì)這家總部位于洛杉磯的公司的持股增至12%，價(jià)值超過(guò)20億美元。

Both the reaction to Monday’s outage and Tencent’s investment show that, despite a loss of faith on Wall Street that has sunk its shares almost 25 per cent below its $17 IPO price, there are still believers in Snap’s story.

對(duì)于周一服務(wù)中斷以及騰訊入股的反應(yīng)表明，盡管華爾街缺乏信心導(dǎo)致Snap股價(jià)較其17美元的IPO發(fā)行價(jià)下跌近25%，但仍有人對(duì)Snap買(mǎi)賬。

“A world without Snapchat is not a world I want to live in,” tweeted @alisdirections when the service was offline. “My Snapchat isn’t even working, might as well throw my whole phone away,” added @vpxvx.

“我不想活在一個(gè)沒(méi)有Snapchat的世界。”在Snapchat服務(wù)中斷期間，@alisdirections在Twitter上發(fā)帖說(shuō)。“我的Snapchat都不工作了，我還不如把手機(jī)整個(gè)扔掉呢。”@vpxvx補(bǔ)充說(shuō)。

But even though American teenagers continue to adore Snapchat, opening the app as many as 25 times a day according to the company, much of the rest of the world remains befuddled or indifferent.

然而，盡管美國(guó)青少年還是很喜歡Snapchat(根據(jù)Snapchat的數(shù)據(jù)，他們每日打開(kāi)該應(yīng)用的次數(shù)多達(dá)25次)，但全球其他地區(qū)仍然搞不懂這款應(yīng)用或?qū)λ桓忻啊?/p>

Evan Spiegel, the Los Angeles-based company’s co-founder and chief executive, acknowledged for the first time on Tuesday that Snapchat, which added just 4.5m new daily active users in the last three months, was attracting new users at a “lower rate than we would have liked” and that the app could be “difficult to understand or hard to use” for many people.

Snap聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人兼首席執(zhí)行官埃文•施皮格爾(Evan Spiegel)周二首次承認(rèn)，Snapchat吸收新用戶(hù)的速度“不理想”，很多人覺(jué)得這款應(yīng)用可能“很難理解或不好用”。過(guò)去3個(gè)月，Snapchat僅新增了450萬(wàn)個(gè)每日活躍用戶(hù)。

He said Snap is redesigning its app to improve usability, especially for Android devices, in the hopes of broadening its appeal beyond Western millennials to older people and those in emerging markets.

他表示，Snap正重新設(shè)計(jì)其應(yīng)用以提高易用性(特別是對(duì)安卓設(shè)備)，希望將其吸引力擴(kuò)展到西方千禧一代以外的年紀(jì)較大人群以及新興市場(chǎng)中的用戶(hù)。

Mr Spiegel acknowledged the careful balancing act that he faces, in retaining the intimacy and fun that made his app so appealing to young users.

施皮格爾承認(rèn)，需要謹(jǐn)慎把握平衡：在擴(kuò)展對(duì)其他人群吸引力的同時(shí)，還要保持令年輕用戶(hù)對(duì)他的應(yīng)用欲罷不能的東西——私密感與趣味。

“There is a strong likelihood that the redesign of our application will be disruptive to our business in the short term, and we don’t yet know how the behaviour of our community will change when they begin to use our updated application,” he said.

他表示：“我們應(yīng)用的重新設(shè)計(jì)很有可能會(huì)在短期內(nèi)擾亂我們的業(yè)務(wù)，目前還不清楚，當(dāng)人們開(kāi)始使用新版應(yīng)用時(shí)，我們社區(qū)的行為會(huì)發(fā)生何種變化。”

The promise to address slowing user growth did not prevent Wall Street analysts from taking a scythe to their forecasts in the wake of Tuesday’s results. Several brokers downgraded their recommendation on the stock, after Snap added half as many new users as Wall Street had been expecting.

解決用戶(hù)數(shù)量增長(zhǎng)緩慢問(wèn)題的承諾，沒(méi)有阻止華爾街分析師在周二財(cái)報(bào)公布后下調(diào)他們的預(yù)測(cè)。Snap增加的新用戶(hù)數(shù)量?jī)H達(dá)華爾街預(yù)期半數(shù)的消息公布后，幾家券商調(diào)低了對(duì)該股的推薦度。

Snap’s revenues grew 126 per cent year-on-year to $208m but came in well short of analysts’ forecasts, as net losses more than tripled to $443m. Snap executives blamed the revenue shortfall on near-term disruption from the shift to automated advertising sales, which use an auction-based system that has driven down prices.

Snap營(yíng)收同比增長(zhǎng)126%，至2.08億美元，但其表現(xiàn)遠(yuǎn)未達(dá)到分析師的預(yù)期——凈虧損增長(zhǎng)逾兩倍，至4.43億美元。Snap高管把營(yíng)收滑坡歸咎于轉(zhuǎn)向自動(dòng)化廣告銷(xiāo)售對(duì)業(yè)績(jī)?cè)斐傻亩唐诟蓴_，這種銷(xiāo)售策略采用基于拍賣(mài)的系統(tǒng)，壓低了價(jià)格。

Many analysts, however, believe that Snap is losing advertiser dollars to the much larger networks available at Facebook and Google.

然而，很多分析師認(rèn)為，這是廣告商轉(zhuǎn)投Facebook和谷歌(Google)所致，這兩家公司的網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)模要大得多。

“We still haven’t seen an inflection in [daily user] growth despite substantial product innovation,” said RBC analyst Mark Mahaney in a note that downgraded the broker’s rating from “outperform” to “sector perform”. “Advertisers go where the eyes are and we need to see further user growth.”

“盡管進(jìn)行了重大產(chǎn)品革新，但我們還沒(méi)有看到(日用戶(hù)數(shù)量)增長(zhǎng)出現(xiàn)明顯加速。”加拿大皇家銀行(RBC)分析師馬克•馬哈尼(Mark Mahaney)在一份研究報(bào)告中表示，“廣告商會(huì)追隨關(guān)注度，我們需要看到用戶(hù)數(shù)量進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)。”這份研究報(bào)告將該銀行對(duì)Snap的評(píng)級(jí)從“跑贏大盤(pán)”下調(diào)至“與同板塊持平”。

After such a disappointing performance, the timing of Snap’s announcement of Tencent’s stake raised eyebrows among some analysts, as the company’s filing noted it was “not obligated to disclose” the investment.

Snap在公布了如此令人失望的業(yè)績(jī)后宣布騰訊入股，這一時(shí)機(jī)選擇引起一些分析師的側(cè)目——正如Snap在監(jiān)管文件中所指出的，它“沒(méi)有強(qiáng)制性義務(wù)要披露”這筆投資。

“We have long been inspired by the creativity and entrepreneurial spirit of Tencent and we are grateful to continue our longstanding and productive relationship that began over four years ago,” Snap wrote in its filing, adding that the two companies planned to share “ideas and experiences”.

Snap在文件中寫(xiě)道，“長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，我們一直受到騰訊創(chuàng)造力和開(kāi)拓精神的鼓舞，我們很慶幸能夠繼續(xù)這份開(kāi)始于4年多以前的長(zhǎng)期而富有成效的關(guān)系”，并補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)，兩家公司計(jì)劃分享“想法和經(jīng)驗(yàn)”。

Nonetheless, Brian Wieser, analyst at Pivotal Research, said Tencent’s move was unlikely to make any difference to Snap’s valuation. The company’s shares were trading 15 per cent lower on Wednesday morning, even after Tencent’s latest endorsement.

然而，Pivotal Research分析師布賴(lài)恩•威澤(Brian Wieser)表示，騰訊的舉動(dòng)不太可能改變Snap的估值。周三早盤(pán)，在騰訊做出最新支持姿態(tài)之后，Snap股價(jià)依然下跌15%。

“It seems highly unlikely that Tencent would ever be in a position to buy the whole company given sensitivity around foreign influence in social media in the US and given China’s own issues with foreign investment at the present time, and it seems equally unlikely that Snap would ever be allowed to establish a foothold in China,” Mr Wieser said.

威澤表示：“鑒于外國(guó)勢(shì)力對(duì)社交媒體的影響在美國(guó)是個(gè)敏感問(wèn)題，中國(guó)自己目前在對(duì)外投資方面也存在一些問(wèn)題，騰訊收購(gòu)整個(gè)公司的可能性看上去極低，而且Snap有朝一日獲準(zhǔn)在中國(guó)立足的可能性也同樣極低。”

“That said, any time a given investor — whether a company or random billionaire — makes a big investment it can help to convey that at least someone out there believes in the long-term potential for the company,” he added.

他補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)：“盡管如此，任何時(shí)候如果某個(gè)投資者(不管是一家公司還是某個(gè)億萬(wàn)富翁)做出巨額投資，它能夠幫助傳達(dá)這樣的信息——至少還有人相信這家公司的長(zhǎng)期潛力。”

The show of faith was desperately needed after Snap executives staged what analyst Jan Dawson of Jackdaw Research called “a reversal on almost every key strategic point from the last few years in one earnings call”.

在Snap的高管謀求改變——用Jackdaw Research分析師簡(jiǎn)•道森(Jan Dawson)的話(huà)來(lái)說(shuō)就是“用一個(gè)財(cái)報(bào)電話(huà)會(huì)議的功夫就把過(guò)去幾年幾乎所有關(guān)鍵性的戰(zhàn)略要點(diǎn)都逆轉(zhuǎn)了”——后，這種展示信心的舉動(dòng)正是Snap迫切需要的。

The shift included Snap’s new-found ambition to reach older users and markets with less developed wireless networks, rather than focusing on its core demographic of under-30s in places with high-speed mobile coverage. Even disclosing that a Snapchat redesign was under way was an unprecedented step for a company that has rivalled Apple in its efforts to maintain the secrecy of its product plans.

此次轉(zhuǎn)變包括Snap的如下新抱負(fù)：試圖觸及年齡更大的用戶(hù)和無(wú)線(xiàn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)欠發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)，而不是把重點(diǎn)放在高速移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)覆蓋地區(qū)30歲以下的核心用戶(hù)群體。對(duì)于產(chǎn)品計(jì)劃保密工作一向做得跟蘋(píng)果(Apple)一樣滴水不漏的Snap來(lái)說(shuō)，即便是對(duì)外透露正在重新設(shè)計(jì)Snapchat這件事，也是前所未有的舉動(dòng)。

“The mythos of Snapchat for a long time was Evan Spiegel, the product genius,” Mr Dawson said. “His gut doesn’t seem to be serving the company very well.”

“長(zhǎng)久以來(lái)Snapchat的神話(huà)一直是產(chǎn)品天才埃文•施皮格爾，”道森表示，“眼下他的直覺(jué)似乎不那么有助于本公司的發(fā)展了。”

In defence of doing product development by “thesis” rather than basing decisions on hard data, Mr Spiegel on Tuesday pointed to the fact that Snapchat’s much-copied Stories format had “basically no one using it for the first six months or so”.

施皮格爾主張基于“觀點(diǎn)”來(lái)開(kāi)發(fā)產(chǎn)品、而非根據(jù)確鑿數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)決策，周二，他援引如下事實(shí)為上述觀點(diǎn)辯護(hù)：Snapchat如今被廣泛抄襲的Stories設(shè)計(jì)，“在最初6個(gè)月左右基本上沒(méi)人使用”。

Yet Tuesday’s results also provided Snap sceptics with a costly example of how the company’s decision-making can go awry. It took at $40m hit from unsold inventory of its video-camera sunglasses, Spectacles.

不過(guò)，周二的財(cái)報(bào)還給了對(duì)Snap持懷疑態(tài)度的人一個(gè)昂貴的例子，表明該公司的決策會(huì)如何出岔子。該公司配有攝像機(jī)的太陽(yáng)眼鏡Spectacles的未售庫(kù)存導(dǎo)致其減記4000萬(wàn)美元。

The write-off is roughly double Spectacles’ $20m in sales for its first three quarters on the market, Mr Dawson noted. “I suspect that was a hubris-based decision rather than a data-based decision,” he said.

道森指出，這筆減記幾乎是Spectacles面世頭3個(gè)季度銷(xiāo)售額(2000萬(wàn)美元)的兩倍。他表示，“我猜這是因?yàn)樽源笞龀龅臎Q定，而不是根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)做出的決定。”

On Tuesday’s call with analysts, Mr Spiegel insisted that upheaval was nothing new at his young company. “There has been a ton of change in a very short period of time,” he said. “That’s been the case over the life of the business in the last six years . . . I guess we are just not afraid to make changes in the long term interest of the business.”

施皮格爾周二在與分析師的電話(huà)會(huì)議上堅(jiān)稱(chēng)，對(duì)于還很年輕的Snap而言，劇變不足為奇。“在非常短的時(shí)間內(nèi)出現(xiàn)了無(wú)數(shù)改變。”他表示，“這是這家企業(yè)在過(guò)去6年里習(xí)以為常的事……我想我們就是無(wú)懼于為了公司長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)利益而做出改變。”