歐洲央行拒絕設(shè)定QE結(jié)束日期

The European Central Bank confounded monetary hawks by extending its economic stimulus programme until at least September next year, pushing down the euro as investors digested Mario Draghi’s refusal to call the end to crisis-era measures

. 歐洲央行(ECB)擬將經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃延長(zhǎng)到至少明年9月，讓貨幣政策鷹派人士感到意外。此舉壓低了歐元匯率，投資者在咀嚼馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)拒絕宣布終止危機(jī)時(shí)期措施的涵義。

The ECB said stimulative bond purchases would be halved to €30bn a month but the commitment to keeping the programme open-ended sent European shares higher as markets anticipated access to cheap money for longer.

歐洲央行表示，旨在刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的債券購(gòu)買將減少一半規(guī)模，至每月300億歐元，但是承諾保持該計(jì)劃持續(xù)運(yùn)行，這推高了歐洲股票，因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)預(yù)期廉價(jià)資金的供應(yīng)將持續(xù)更久。

The ECB decision had been eagerly awaited, with many in Germany pushing Mr Draghi to set a firm end date to the €2.1tn programme amid signs that eurozone growth has become stronger and more sustained. The ECB has been the most active investor in the region’s bond markets since the scheme, or quantitative easing, began in early 2015.

此前外界對(duì)歐洲央行此次決策翹首以盼。隨著有跡象顯示歐元區(qū)的增長(zhǎng)已經(jīng)變得更強(qiáng)勁更持久，德國(guó)有很多人敦促德拉吉設(shè)定終結(jié)2.1萬(wàn)億歐元刺激計(jì)劃的具體日期。自這個(gè)量化寬松計(jì)劃在2015年初啟動(dòng)以來，歐洲央行一直是歐元區(qū)債券市場(chǎng)上最活躍的投資者。

Under the plan agreed yesterday, central bankers will go on spending €60bn a month buying mostly government and some corporate debt until the end of the year, before then halving purchases.

根據(jù)昨日達(dá)成一致意見的計(jì)劃，央行官員在今年余下時(shí)間將繼續(xù)每月支出600億歐元買入債券(主要是政府債券，也有一些公司債券)，之后將購(gòu)買規(guī)模減半。

But instead of announcing an end date to bond buying, something the ECB did not do before the eurozone crisis, the bank said it stood ready to extend QE beyond September — or even raise the level of purchases should conditions worsen again. It also stuck to its line on keeping interest rates at a record low until “well past” the end of QE.

但是，歐洲央行非但沒有宣布債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃的結(jié)束日期(該央行在歐元區(qū)危機(jī)之前從未買入債券)，反而表示準(zhǔn)備將量化寬松計(jì)劃延長(zhǎng)至明年9月以后，甚至還會(huì)在條件再度惡化的情況下加大購(gòu)買規(guī)模。歐洲央行還重申，將把利率保持在創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低位——“遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出”量化寬松的持續(xù)時(shí)間。

The reaction in Germany, where years of negative interest rates and stimulus have caused rising anger among economists worried by inflation and savers facing tiny returns on their nest eggs, was surprisingly muted. Berlin has recently scaled back criticism of Mr Draghi amid hopes Germany’s Jens Weidmann might succeed him in 2019.

對(duì)此，德國(guó)的反應(yīng)低調(diào)得出人意料;持續(xù)多年的負(fù)利率和刺激措施，已在德國(guó)導(dǎo)致?lián)耐浀慕?jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們以及面對(duì)微薄回報(bào)率的儲(chǔ)蓄者們?cè)絹碓綒鈶?。柏林方面最近降低了批評(píng)德拉吉的調(diào)子，其背景是德國(guó)的延斯•魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)有望在2019年接替他。

Mr Draghi said the changes were not a “tapering” but a “downsize”, adding QE was “not going to stop suddenly”.

德拉吉表示，相關(guān)改變不是“逐步縮減”，而是“減小規(guī)模”，他補(bǔ)充說，量化寬松“不會(huì)突然停止”。

He admitted that some on his governing council wanted a swifter exit to the programme. As many as four of the 25-member council wanted more precision on when QE would end, according to two people familiar with deliberations.

他承認(rèn)，歐洲央行管理委員會(huì)中有一些人希望更快退出刺激計(jì)劃。據(jù)兩位熟悉審議情況的人士透露，在管理委員會(huì)的25名成員中，有4人希望在何時(shí)終止量化寬松的問題上要更為明確。

Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING-DiBa, said the “very gentle” exit plan “illustrates that the ECB wants to start the exit as cautiously as possible, ideally without seeing the euro appreciate or bond yields increase”.

荷蘭國(guó)際直銷銀行(ING-DiBa)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家卡斯滕•布雷斯基(Carsten Brzeski)表示，這一“非常溫和的”退出計(jì)劃表明，“歐洲央行希望盡可能謹(jǐn)慎地開始退出，理想情況是沒有出現(xiàn)歐元升值或債券收益率上升”。

The euro fell 1 per cent to just under $1.17. Sovereign bonds were back in demand, with the yield on the 10-year Bund falling 7 basis points to 0.41 per cent. Stocks rose Europe-wide, with the Stoxx 600 rising 1.1 per cent.

歐元匯率下降1%，至略低于1歐元兌1.17美元。主權(quán)債券再度受到追捧，10年期德國(guó)國(guó)債收益率下降7個(gè)基點(diǎn)，至0.41%。歐洲各國(guó)股票上漲，泛歐斯托克600指數(shù)(Stoxx 600)攀升1.1%。

The ECB’s slow taper suggests it will keep interest rates at current record lows until 2019 — highlighting the gulf in policy between the eurozone and the US, where the Federal Reserve has started to raise rates. The ECB said rates would stay at present levels “for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases”.

歐洲央行緩慢縮減量化寬松的政策似乎表明，它將把創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低位的利率保持到2019年，突顯歐元區(qū)和美國(guó)之間的政策鴻溝;在美國(guó)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)已經(jīng)開始提高利率。歐洲央行表示，利率將保持在目前水平“相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)時(shí)期，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出凈資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買計(jì)劃的持續(xù)時(shí)間”。