中國第三季度GDP數(shù)據(jù)的四個看點

China will report third-quarter gross domestic product figures on Thursday, just as the Communist party convenes a meeting in which it will select a new slate of top leaders.

中國將在周四發(fā)布第三季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)數(shù)據(jù)，屆時中國共產(chǎn)黨將正在舉行十九大，新一屆最高領(lǐng)導人班子最終將在會上亮相。

Global sentiment towards China has improved dramatically since last year, when concerns about capital flight and excessive debt led many foreign investors to conclude that policymakers were losing their ability to control risks.

全球市場對中國的信心自去年來顯著提升，那時資本外逃和過度負債引發(fā)的擔憂，令許多外國投資者斷定，中國的政策制定者正在失去控制風險的能力。

Today, few observers believe that China is on the verge of a crisis, but investors will still be watching Thursday’s data for signs about whether China is addressing structural problems in its economy or simply kicking the can down the road.

如今，觀察家們不再認為中國正處于一場危機的邊緣，但投資者們?nèi)詫㈥P(guān)注周四的數(shù)據(jù)，看是否有跡象顯示中國正在解決其經(jīng)濟的結(jié)構(gòu)問題，或只是在把問題推到將來。

Here are four things to watch for in Thursday’s data dump.

周四發(fā)布的這批數(shù)據(jù)有四個看點：

1. Headline GDP

1、整體GDP

With inflation-adjusted growth of 6.9 per cent in the first half, China’s economy is on a path to meet — and probaby exceed — Beijing’s full-year target of “around 6.5 per cent”. At the current pace, this year would also mark an acceleration on last year’s growth of 6.7 per cent, the first such year-on-year pick-up since 2010.

中國上半年經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后的增長率為6.9%，中國經(jīng)濟將會達到——且很可能超過——北京方面提出的“6.5%左右”的全年目標。以目前的速度，中國今年的經(jīng)濟增長也將標志著在去年6.7%的基礎(chǔ)上有所提速，這是中國經(jīng)濟自2010年以來首次實現(xiàn)同比加速。

Economists expect that growth slowed to 6.8 per cent in the third quarter, according to a Reuters poll. But Zhou Xiaochuan, central bank governor, told the International Monetary Fund that growth could hit 7 per cent in the second half of 2017. Stronger headline growth would create breathing space for policymakers to focus on reducing debt, while an unexpectedly sharp slowdown would renew pressure for stimulus.

路透社(Reuters)的一項調(diào)查顯示，經(jīng)濟學家們預測第三季度中國的經(jīng)濟增長率將放緩至6.8%。但中國央行行長周小川告訴國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)，2017下半年中國的經(jīng)濟增長率可能達到7%。更強勁的整體增長率將為政策制定者創(chuàng)造喘息的空間，讓他們聚焦于降低債務，而出乎意料的急劇下滑將再度帶來采取刺激措施的壓力。

2. Infrastructure

2、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施

China ramped up infrastructure spending last year to ensure strong growth in the run-up to this week’s party congress. With manufacturers still reluctant to expand given overcapacity in many sectors, the infrastructure share of overall fixed-asset investment hit a record high in the first eight months of this year.

中國去年加大了基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出，以確保在本周的十九大之前保持強勁經(jīng)濟增長?？紤]到許多行業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩導致制造企業(yè)仍不愿擴張，今年前八個月，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施在總體固定資產(chǎn)投資中所占的份額創(chuàng)下歷史新高。

But economists doubt that infrastructure can continue to drive growth, especially since the finance ministry is clamping down on exotic financing techniques that local governments use to avoid official caps on borrowing. Monthly fixed-asset investment figures released alongside GDP on Thursday will show the extent to which infrastructure is still underpinning overall growth.

但經(jīng)濟學家們懷疑基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施能否繼續(xù)推動經(jīng)濟增長，特別是中國財政部正在打擊地方政府用別出心裁的融資手段來規(guī)避正式借款限制。周四隨GDP一同公布的月度固定資產(chǎn)投資數(shù)據(jù)，將顯示出基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施在多大程度上仍在支持著整體經(jīng)濟的增長。

3. Property

3、房地產(chǎn)

Alongside infrastructure, real estate has been the other pillar supporting growth over the past 18 months. Rising housing prices and strong sales volumes have underpinned property investment, which in turn drives demand for commodities such as steel, copper and glass.

除基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施外，房地產(chǎn)是過去18個月支撐經(jīng)濟增長的另一個支柱。上漲的房價與強勁的銷量支持著房地產(chǎn)投資，進而拉動了對鋼鐵、銅及玻璃等大宗商品的需求。

But local governments have imposed a series of increasingly tight restrictions on housing loans and purchases over the past year, amid concerns about a bubble. Property investment and sales data on Thursday will offer more evidence about the impact of those measures. The government’s aim is to calm the market but not to spark a slowdown in construction activity.

然而，在人們擔憂房地產(chǎn)市場存在泡沫的背景下，地方政府在過去一年對房貸和購房實行了一系列越來越嚴厲的限制。周四公布的房地產(chǎn)投資與銷售數(shù)據(jù)，將為這些措施的影響提供更多證據(jù)。政府的目標是讓市場平靜下來，而不致引發(fā)建筑活動放緩。

4. Consumption

4、消費

China’s economy is gradually rebalancing away from investment-driven growth towards greater reliance on consumption, but progress has been slower than many economists believe is required to avoid future problems.

中國經(jīng)濟正在逐漸再平衡，從投資驅(qū)動增長轉(zhuǎn)向在更大程度上依賴消費，但迄今的進展慢于許多經(jīng)濟學家認為避免未來問題所需達到的速度。

Consumer confidence and household-income growth are near record highs, according to a proprietary survey by FT Confidential Research, an independent research service from the FT. But there are concerns that rising mortgage payments due to higher house prices are taking an ever-larger bite out of household income, hampering consumption.

英國《金融時報》旗下的獨立研究機構(gòu)“FT投資參考”(FT Confidential Research)的一項專有調(diào)查顯示，消費者信心和家庭收入的增長接近歷史高點。但有人擔心，更高的房價導致抵押貸款支出不斷增加，使其消耗掉越來越大比例的家庭收入，因而限制了消費。

Consumption contributed 63 per cent of real GDP growth in the first half, up from an average of 55 per cent each year in the five years to the end of 2016. If the consumption share of growth rises further in the third quarter, it will be a sign that rebalancing is gaining steam.

上半年消費貢獻了63%的實際GDP增長，高于在截至2016年底的5年期間55%的年均占比。如果第三季度經(jīng)濟增長中的消費份額進一步提升，那將說明再平衡正在形成勢頭。