IMF上調(diào)全球增長預測

The world economy is enjoying its most widespread and fastest growth spurt since a temporary bounce back from the global recession in 2010, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday, as it released a series of upward revisions to its economic biannual forecasts.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)周二表示，世界經(jīng)濟正在經(jīng)歷自2010年從全球經(jīng)濟衰退暫時反彈以來最廣泛最快速的增長期。該機構對其半年一次的經(jīng)濟預測作出了一連串上調(diào)。

In a rare upbeat World Economic Outlook, published at the start of the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, the fund added that the unexpectedly good news had further to run in 2018 and higher investment was also beginning to improve the longer-term economic prognosis.

在IMF和世界銀行(World Bank)在華盛頓舉行的年度會議開幕之際，IMF發(fā)表一份不多見的樂觀的《世界經(jīng)濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)，并補充稱，出人意料的好消息在2018年仍有進一步延續(xù)空間，同時更高的投資也開始改善較長期的經(jīng)濟預測。

The last time the global economy grew so fast was in 2010 as the world economy staged a temporary recovery from the 2008-09 financial crisis, so this year’s performance was significantly stronger, according to Maurice Obstfeld, chief economist of the IMF.

IMF首席經(jīng)濟學家莫里斯•奧布斯特費爾德(Maurice Obstfeld)表示，上一次全球經(jīng)濟增長這么快是在2010年，當時世界經(jīng)濟是從2008-09年的金融危機暫時復蘇，因此今年的經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)要強勁得多。

“This is not bounce back from a sharp deceleration, this is an acceleration from the fairly tepid growth rates of recent years, so that’s really good news,” he told the FT in an interview ahead of the report’s publication.

“這并不是從一輪急劇減速反彈，而是從近年相當溫和的增長速度加快，所以這真的是好消息，”他在報告出爐之前接受采訪時告訴英國《金融時報》。

The IMF estimates that the world economy will expand 3.6 per cent in 2017, up from 3.2 per cent recorded last year, and it is likely to grow 3.7 per cent in 2018, the IMF predicted. These growth rates are better than the norm for this decade and finally back to the long-term average of the past 30 years.

IMF估計，2017年世界經(jīng)濟將擴張3.6%，高于去年實現(xiàn)的3.2%。IMF還預計2018年世界經(jīng)濟有望增長3.7%。這些增長率優(yōu)于本10年的常態(tài)，并且標志著終于回歸過去30年的長期均值。

The upgraded growth forecasts came alongside predictions of low inflation across the world, helping to boost household incomes, a continuation of loose monetary policies and an end to fiscal austerity in most countries, the IMF said.

在上調(diào)增長預測的同時，IMF預計世界各地的通脹將保持在低水平，幫助提振家庭收入、延續(xù)寬松貨幣政策，并且結束多數(shù)國家的財政緊縮。

China’s economy is also performing better than expected on the back of easy credit and copious public investment. The forecasts for the US were cut marginally, reflecting a weak first quarter of this year and the fund’s view that a large fiscal stimulus is now less likely than it thought in April.

中國經(jīng)濟在寬松信貸和大量公共投資的支撐下表現(xiàn)也優(yōu)于預期。美國的預測略有下調(diào)，反映今年第一季度的疲弱，而且IMF認為，該國出臺大規(guī)模財政刺激措施的可能性小于它在4月份的設想。

The most significant upgrades to the fund’s forecasts were recorded for the eurozone, which is accelerating strongly as confidence has improved and credit supply has returned to normal.

在IMF的增長預測中，歐元區(qū)的預測獲得最顯著的上調(diào)。隨著信心改善，信貸供應恢復正常，該地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟增長正在強勁加速。

Despite the strength of its largest trading partner, the UK economy is described as an “exception” to the improved 2017 outlook, with its prospects currently saddled by Brexit uncertainties limiting spending and hitting incomes.

盡管其最大的貿(mào)易伙伴表現(xiàn)強勁，但英國經(jīng)濟被描述為2017年全球經(jīng)濟前景好轉的一個“例外”，其前景目前受到退歐不確定性的拖累，支出受到限制，收入受到影響。

Although the recovery was now broad, not all countries were enjoying the benefit, with some smaller emerging economies, particularly fuel exporters and nations suffering from drought or political instability.

雖然復蘇的波及面已經(jīng)相當廣泛，但并不是所有國家都受益，一些較小的新興經(jīng)濟體，特別是燃料出口國和遭受干旱或政治不穩(wěn)定的國家，前景不佳。

Mr Obstfeld said: “In 2017 nearly a quarter of emerging market and developing countries are expected to have negative per-capita growth rates so that’s a sobering outlook.”

奧布斯特費爾德表示：“2017年，近四分之一的新興市場和發(fā)展中國家的人均增長率預計會錄得負值，這是一個令人警醒的前景。”

Global trade imbalances have also continued to reduce in severity with China’s trade surplus falling as the world’s largest economy sucks in more imports and some European surpluses decline as domestic spending also increases.

全球貿(mào)易不平衡的嚴重性也繼續(xù)下降，中國的貿(mào)易順差下降，因為世界第二大經(jīng)濟體進口增長，同時一些歐洲國家的順差下降，因為它們的國內(nèi)支出也在增加。

The IMF urged countries to use this sudden outbreak of calm in the global economy as “a window of opportunity” to implement necessary reforms, get public finances gradually in a better shape and in some places such as the US begin to normalise monetary policy.

IMF敦促各國將全球經(jīng)濟突然迎來的此輪風平浪靜當作“一個機會之窗”，推行必要改革，逐漸改善公共財政狀況，在美國等一些地方還應該將貨幣政策正常化。

If achieved, Mr Obstfeld said, such policies could raise the potential growth rate of the world economy and ensure the upswing lasted longer and was able to provide inclusive growth that raised the living standards of most people. At present, he warned that “predicted longer-run potential growth rates are lower than they were in the past”.

奧布斯特費爾德表示，如果能夠落實，這樣的政策有望提高世界經(jīng)濟的潛在增長率，同時確保上升期持續(xù)更久，并帶來包容性增長，提高多數(shù)人的生活水平。他警告稱，目前而言，“較長期潛在增長率預測低于過去的預測。”

The fund did caution that the good times were dependent on assuming there were no serious shocks to the global economy from geopolitical tensions, from an increase in protectionist forces or from negotiations such as those over Brexit or the North American Free Trade Area rupturing existing trade ties and supply chains.

IMF告誡稱，當今的美好時期依賴于幾個假設，包括地緣政治緊張和保護主義勢力抬頭不對全球經(jīng)濟造成嚴重沖擊，圍繞英國退歐或《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》(NAFTA)等的破壞現(xiàn)有貿(mào)易紐帶和供應鏈的談判也不對全球經(jīng)濟造成嚴重沖擊。

Trade growth has continued to disappoint, barely rising faster than economic growth compared with its pre-crisis rates which tended to be double the rate of world economic growth.

貿(mào)易增長繼續(xù)令人失望，比經(jīng)濟增長速度快不了多少，而其在危機前的增速往往比世界經(jīng)濟增速快一倍。

In an indirect, but pointed, message to the Trump administration, the IMF said: “Although the chances of advanced economy policies turning inward have diminished in the near term, pressures for increased protectionism have not disappeared and ought to be resisted.”

IMF向特朗普政府發(fā)出一個間接但意有所指的信號，稱：“盡管發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體政策轉為內(nèi)向的幾率近期有所降低，但是加大保護主義的壓力并未消失，這應該受到抵制。”

The fund also warned China that its delays in rebalancing the economy towards services and consumption by borrowing to fund investment risked an abrupt adjustment which would reverberate across the world. “Unless the Chinese authorities counter the associated risks by accelerating their recent encouraging efforts to curb the expansion of credit, these factors imply a heightened probability of a sharp slowdown in China’s growth,” the fund said.

該機構還向中國發(fā)出警告，稱中國通過借款投資來推遲轉向服務業(yè)和消費的經(jīng)濟再平衡，帶來了突然出現(xiàn)調(diào)整、進而在全球范圍產(chǎn)生震蕩的風險。“除非中國當局加快近期令人鼓舞的遏制信貸擴張的努力來反制相關風險，否則這些因素意味著中國經(jīng)濟增長大幅放緩的幾率加大。”