中國助力瑞士手表再次閃耀光芒

Switzerland’s watchmakers have turned markedly more optimistic this year despite the rise of the “smartwatch”, with sales of luxury timepieces to China leading a surge in exports.

盡管“智能”手表興起，但瑞士手表制造商今年明顯變得更為樂觀，面向中國的豪華手表銷售引領(lǐng)了該行業(yè)的出口飆升。

Sentiment has swung sharply positive since last year, when the watch industry was in a downturn, according to a survey by the Deloitte consultancy.

根據(jù)咨詢機構(gòu)德勤(Deloitte)的一項調(diào)查，自去年以來，市場情緒已明顯轉(zhuǎn)好。去年手表行業(yè)曾遭遇低迷。

Optimism levels about the Swiss economy and the sector’s main export markets were the highest since the consultancy started its annual survey in 2012, Deloitte said.

德勤表示，自該咨詢公司2012年開始年度調(diào)查以來，對于瑞士經(jīng)濟和手表行業(yè)主要出口市場的樂觀情緒達(dá)到最高水平。

Overall 52 per cent of Swiss watch executives were positive about the outlook for the industry in the next 12 months — up from 2 per cent last year and the highest since 2013.

總的來說，有52%的瑞士手表制造商高管對該行業(yè)未來12個月的前景持樂觀態(tài)度，遠(yuǎn)高于去年的2%，為自2013年以來最高。

“Last year’s pessimism has clearly been replaced with optimism,” the Deloitte report notes.

德勤的報告指出：“去年的悲觀情緒顯然已被樂觀情緒取代。”

Swiss makers of luxury mechanical timepieces have been hit in the past two years by a series of setbacks. Hong Kong, their largest market, had excess inventory. Sales weakened in Europe where terrorist attacks deterred tourists. The strong franc increased prices for overseas buyers, while China clamped down on corruption and “gifting”.

過去兩年，一系列挫折令瑞士豪華機械表制造商受到打擊。它們的最大市場香港出現(xiàn)庫存過剩。歐洲銷售額下滑，因為該地區(qū)的恐怖襲擊嚇退了游客。瑞士法郎走強提高了海外買家的購買價格，同時中國又打擊腐敗和“送禮”。

Those factors have gone into reverse in 2017. Swiss watch exports in the eight months to August were 1.2 per cent higher than a year earlier, according to the Swiss Watch Federation, and exports to China were up 19 per cent. The share price of Swatch Group has risen 41.5 per cent and Richemont 47 per cent during the past year

2017年，這些因素出現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)。根據(jù)瑞士鐘表協(xié)會(Swiss Watch Federation)的數(shù)據(jù)，截至8月份的8個月里，瑞士手表出口同比增長1.2%，對華出口增加19%。過去一年，斯沃琪集團(tuán)(Swatch Group)和歷峰集團(tuán)(Richemont)的股價分別上漲41.5%和47%。

The Deloitte survey, based on responses from more than 60 watch company executives, found 71 per cent expected Chinese demand to grow further in the next 12 months.

德勤調(diào)查了逾60位手表制造商高管。調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，有71%的高管預(yù)測未來12個月中國需求將進(jìn)一步擴大。

A major factor in boosting consumption of high-end watches, the report said, had been the drop in corruption prosecutions in China. “In 2016, China’s courts prosecuted 20 per cent fewer officials for corruption than in 2015. For the first time in five years, the number of officials handed over to China’s courts decreased, marking a turning point in China’s anti-corruption and anti-bribery campaign,” the report noted.

報告稱，提振高端手表消費的一個重要因素是中國的腐敗訴訟減少。報告指出：“2016年，中國法庭起訴的腐敗官員數(shù)量比2015年減少20%。移送法庭的官員數(shù)量減少，這是5年來的首次，這標(biāo)志著中國反腐和反賄賂運動的一個轉(zhuǎn)折點。”

The US remains a weak spot, with export sales 5 per cent lower in the year to August. But almost 70 per cent of Deloitte survey’s respondents expected an improvement in the next 12 months.

美國市場仍然疲軟，截至8月的一年，對美出口銷售額下滑5%。但德勤這項調(diào)查近70%的受訪者預(yù)測未來12個月會有改善。

One explanation for weak US sales is the rise of smartwatches, led by Apple. In the first quarter of 2017, sales of smartwatches overtook Swiss watches in numbers of units, while the sharpest falls in Swiss exports last year were in the lower-price categories most exposed to competition, according to Deloitte.

美國銷售疲弱的一個原因是以蘋果(Apple)為首的智能手表的興起。根據(jù)德勤的數(shù)據(jù)，今年第一季度，智能手表的銷量超過瑞士手表，去年瑞士出口的最大降幅出現(xiàn)在競爭最為激烈的低價手表。

Nevertheless, the proportion of executives surveyed who viewed smartwatches as a “significant risk” to their business remained stable at 23 per cent, about the same as in the two previous annual surveys. That compared with 57 per cent who cited foreign demand as a big risk, and 48 per cent who worried about the strength of the Swiss franc.

然而，認(rèn)為智能手表對于他們的業(yè)務(wù)是一項“顯著風(fēng)險”的受訪高管比例仍然穩(wěn)定在23%，大致與之前兩年的年度調(diào)查相同。有57%的高管把外國需求視為一項重大風(fēng)險，48%的高管擔(dān)心瑞士法郎走強。

Swiss watchmakers are turning increasingly to online sales channels, and expect to put far less emphasis on traditional shops. Some Swiss watchmakers such as Tag Heuer and Montblanc have added smart functions to conventional watches.

瑞士手表制造商正越來越多地轉(zhuǎn)向在線銷售渠道，同時預(yù)測對傳統(tǒng)店鋪的注重將大大減輕。泰格豪雅(Tag Heuer)和萬寶龍(Montblanc)等一些瑞士手表制造商給傳統(tǒng)手表添加了智能功能。

But the survey suggests Swiss watchmakers believe their long-term survival depends on emphasising their history. Some 42 per cent believed “classical” watch styles, rather than, for instance, “sporty” styles, would be the most successful category over the next 12 months — up from 34 per cent last year.

但這項調(diào)查顯示，瑞士手表制造商認(rèn)為它們的長期生存取決于強調(diào)歷史。約42%的受訪高管認(rèn)為，未來12個月，“經(jīng)典”手表款式(而非“運動”款等)將成為最成功的款型。去年這個比例為34%。