誰(shuí)對(duì)美國(guó)共和體制構(gòu)成威脅？

Who poses the most realistic threat to the US republic: Kim Jong Un or Donald Trump? In theory, it is obviously Mr Kim. Yet US democracy is within Mr Trump’s striking range at all times.

誰(shuí)對(duì)美國(guó)共和體制構(gòu)成最切實(shí)的威脅?是金正恩(Kim Jong Un)，還是唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)?從理論上講，顯然是金正恩。然而，美國(guó)的民主一直都在特朗普的攻擊范圍內(nèi)。

By providing cover to homegrown neo-Nazis, America’s commander-in-chief is giving succour to the most lethal ideology in history. The fact that the US president does not understand this — or, worse, that he knows it but does not care — is an academic question. The Ku Klux Klan and fellow travellers can scarcely believe their luck. Mr Trump is Mr Trump. The question is what the Republican party plans to do about him.

通過(guò)為土生土長(zhǎng)的新納粹分子提供掩護(hù)，這位美國(guó)總司令正在為歷史上最致命的意識(shí)形態(tài)提供幫助。特朗普不明白這一點(diǎn)——或者更糟的是，他知道，卻不關(guān)心——是一個(gè)理論問(wèn)題。3K黨(Ku Klux Klan)和他們的同路人簡(jiǎn)直不敢相信自己的運(yùn)氣。特朗普就是特朗普。問(wèn)題是共和黨打算怎樣對(duì)他。

Judged at face value, the party’s leadership implicitly favours removing Mr Trump. “White supremacy is repulsive,” tweeted Paul Ryan, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives. Mr Ryan was an implacable foe of almost everything Barack Obama proposed. Yet he never went so far as to accuse Mr Obama of backing the forces of hate. It follows, therefore, that Mr Ryan believes Mr Trump is unfit to hold the highest office in the land. So too, when privately asked, do many elected Republicans. But will they act on that judgment?

從表面上看，共和黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層含蓄地贊同讓特朗普免職。“白人至上主義令人厭惡，”眾議院議長(zhǎng)、共和黨人保羅•瑞安(Paul Ryan)在Twitter上寫(xiě)道。瑞安反對(duì)巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)幾乎所有的提議。然而，他從未指責(zé)奧巴馬支持仇恨勢(shì)力。因此，可以推斷，瑞安認(rèn)為特朗普不適合執(zhí)掌國(guó)家的最高職權(quán)。私下被問(wèn)時(shí)，許多共和黨人也會(huì)這樣表示。那么他們的行動(dòng)會(huì)和想法一致嗎?

The disturbing answer is not yet. With some honourable exceptions, such as John McCain, the Arizona senator, Republicans are not ready to stand up to the president. Even Mr Ryan, whose condemnation of white supremacism was unequivocal, refrained from criticising Mr Trump directly. Others rushed to his defence. “President Trump once again denounced hate today,” tweeted Kayleigh McEnany, spokesman for the Republican National Committee. “The GOP stands behind his message of love and inclusiveness!” By even-handedly condemning the “alt-right” and the “alt-left”, Mr Trump was upholding American values, you see. In addition to bad apples, the far right included some “very fine people”, said the president.

答案令人不安：目前沒(méi)有。除了一些令人尊敬的人士，如亞利桑那州參議員約翰•麥凱恩(John McCain)，共和黨人還未準(zhǔn)備好與總統(tǒng)對(duì)抗。就連毫不含糊地譴責(zé)白人至上主義的瑞安也避免直接批評(píng)特朗普。其他人忙著為特朗普辯護(hù)。共和黨全國(guó)委員會(huì)發(fā)言人凱莉•麥肯內(nèi)妮(Kayleigh McEnany)在推特上表示：“特朗普總統(tǒng)今天再次譴責(zé)仇恨。”“共和黨支持他發(fā)出的愛(ài)和包容的信號(hào)!”你看，通過(guò)不偏不倚地譴責(zé)“另類(lèi)右翼”和“另類(lèi)左翼”，特朗普正在維護(hù)美國(guó)的價(jià)值觀。除了部分害群之馬，極右翼中有一些“非常好的人”，特朗普說(shuō)。

Republicans are paralysed on two counts. First, the party cannot disown what Mr Trump is doing without repudiating themselves. His victory was the logical outcome of the party’s “southern strategy”, which dates from the late 1960s. The goal has been to siphon off southern whites from the Democratic party. Most Republicans have preferred to keep their tactics genteel. The signal of choice has been the dog whistle rather than the megaphone. Thus, in one form or another, most Republican states are reforming their voter registration systems. The fact that such laws disproportionately shrink the non-white electorate is an accidental byproduct of a colour-blind crackdown. Even without proof of widespread fraud, voter suppression has plausible deniability. Over the years, the same has applied to various wars on crime, drugs and welfare fraud, which were never discriminatory by design. Mr Trump has simply taken that approach into the open. He is the Republican party’s Frankenstein. The age of plausible deniability is over.

共和黨在兩個(gè)方面陷入了癱瘓。首先，共和黨無(wú)法在不批判自身的情況下撇清與特朗普所作所為的關(guān)系。特朗普的勝利是共和黨從上世紀(jì)60年代末起奉行的“南方戰(zhàn)略”(southern strategy)的必然結(jié)果。該戰(zhàn)略的目標(biāo)是拉攏民主黨中的南方白人。多數(shù)共和黨人更傾向于文雅地行使這一策略。他們選擇用來(lái)發(fā)信號(hào)的是狗哨，而非擴(kuò)音器。因此，多數(shù)共和黨州正在以各種形式改革選民登記制度。此類(lèi)法律過(guò)多地縮小了非白人選區(qū)，這一事實(shí)是不分膚色壓制的附帶結(jié)果。即使沒(méi)有存在大規(guī)模舞弊的證據(jù)，選民壓制(voter suppression)有看似合理的搪塞理由。多年來(lái)，同樣的做法也運(yùn)用在針對(duì)犯罪、毒品和福利欺詐的打擊，初衷并不存在歧視。特朗普只是把這一做法公開(kāi)化了。他是共和黨的弗蘭肯斯坦(Frankenstein)。能夠貌似合理地搪塞的時(shí)代已經(jīng)結(jié)束。

The second Republican problem is fear. Because of gerrymandering, most Republicans — and Democrats — are more vulnerable to a challenge from within their ranks than to defeat by the other party. As the saying goes, American politicians choose their voters, rather than the other way round. Unfortunately that gives the swing vote to the most committed elements of each party’s base. Though Mr Trump’s approval ratings are lower than for any president in history, he still has the backing of most Republican voters. Any elected Republican who opposes Mr Trump can be sure of merciless reprisal. It is a rare politician who would invite vilification from their own side.

共和黨的第二個(gè)問(wèn)題是恐懼。由于存在為了黨派利益而不公正地重劃選區(qū)的做法，多數(shù)共和黨人(以及民主黨人)更容易受到來(lái)自黨內(nèi)的挑戰(zhàn)，而非被另一黨擊敗。正如俗話所說(shuō)，美國(guó)政治家選擇自己的選民，而非反之。遺憾的是，這使得各黨最鐵桿的選民能夠?qū)x舉起到?jīng)Q定性影響。盡管特朗普的支持率比歷史上任何一位總統(tǒng)都低，但他仍受到多數(shù)共和黨選民的支持。任何反對(duì)特朗普的共和黨民選官員肯定會(huì)遭到無(wú)情報(bào)復(fù)。甘愿招致己方陣營(yíng)詆毀的政治家寥寥無(wú)幾。

Where will this end? The realistic answer is that Republicans will hide under a rock until they suffer a stinging defeat in next year’s midterm elections. But a defeat in 2018 is far from assured. Even then, it would have to be on a grand scale to reverse America’s deep forces of polarisation. Mr Trump will probably serve out his term.

結(jié)果會(huì)怎樣?現(xiàn)實(shí)的答案是，共和黨人將躲在巖石下面，直至他們?cè)诿髂甑闹衅谶x舉中遭遇慘敗。但在2018年落敗絕非必然。而且只有大敗才可能扭轉(zhuǎn)導(dǎo)致美國(guó)社會(huì)兩極分化的深層力量。特朗普很可能干到任期屆滿。

The more worrying answer is that US democracy is heading towards a form of civil breakdown. After the violence in Charlottesville last weekend, activist groups are seeking to remove statues of Confederate figures across the south. It was opposition to the removal of a statue of Robert Lee, the Confederate general, that drew so many white supremacists to Charlottesville. Each new showdown will offer an irresistible branding opportunity to the far right.

更令人擔(dān)憂的答案是，美國(guó)的民主正在從內(nèi)部走向崩潰。上周末夏洛茨維爾發(fā)生暴力事件后，活動(dòng)組織正試圖在南方各地拆除邦聯(lián)領(lǐng)袖雕像。正是拆除南方邦聯(lián)將軍羅伯特•李(Robert Lee)雕像引起了反對(duì)，才有那么多白人至上主義者來(lái)到夏洛茨維爾。每一場(chǎng)新的較量都將給極右翼分子帶來(lái)不可抗拒的宣傳效應(yīng)。

As for Mr Trump, his historic ignominy is assured. One group in Charlottesville stood for racial bigotry. The other opposed it. Mr Trump chose to be neutral. In so doing, he has given life to the worst demons of America’s past.

至于特朗普，他必然留下歷史性恥辱。在夏洛茨維爾有一幫人支持種族偏見(jiàn)，另一幫人反對(duì)種族偏見(jiàn)。特朗普選擇中立。他這樣做，讓美國(guó)歷史上最邪惡的思想活過(guò)來(lái)了。