中國(guó)“高鐵外交”受阻

China’s plan to use high-speed rail technology as a “golden business card” to spearhead a global tide of infrastructure exports has run into trouble, with the value of projects called off far exceeding those under way, a Financial Times investigation has found.

英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國(guó)把高鐵技術(shù)當(dāng)作“黃金名片”、以帶動(dòng)一波全球基建出口潮流的計(jì)劃遇到了麻煩，被取消項(xiàng)目的總價(jià)值遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)開工項(xiàng)目。

The total value of 18 Chinese high-speed rail projects overseas — including one completed, five under way and 12 more announced — amounts to $143bn, according to a study by the FT and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think-tank.

根據(jù)由英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》和華盛頓智庫(kù)戰(zhàn)略與國(guó)際問(wèn)題研究中心(CSIS)開展的一項(xiàng)研究，中國(guó)18個(gè)海外高鐵項(xiàng)目(其中包括一個(gè)已完工項(xiàng)目、五個(gè)在建項(xiàng)目、以及另外12個(gè)對(duì)外公布的項(xiàng)目)總價(jià)值為1430億美元。

The ambition of China’s use of rail for economic diplomacy rivals that of the US-led Marshall Plan to revive Europe after the second world war, to which America contributed $13bn, or the equivalent of $130bn today. But the combined estimated value of projects called off in Mexico, Myanmar, Venezuela, Libya and the US is $47.5bn, the FT estimates. That is almost double the $24.9bn for projects under way in Laos, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and two in Iran, according to CSIS estimates.

中國(guó)把鐵路用于經(jīng)濟(jì)外交的雄心，可以媲美二戰(zhàn)后美國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的復(fù)興歐洲的馬歇爾計(jì)劃(Marshall Plan)。當(dāng)年美國(guó)為馬歇爾計(jì)劃貢獻(xiàn)了130億美元，相當(dāng)于今天的1300億美元。但是據(jù)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》估計(jì)，在墨西哥、緬甸、委內(nèi)瑞拉、利比亞和美國(guó)取消的高鐵項(xiàng)目的總估計(jì)價(jià)值為475億美元。而根據(jù)CSIS估計(jì)，在老撾、沙特阿拉伯、土耳其在建的高鐵項(xiàng)目，以及在伊朗在建的兩個(gè)高鐵項(xiàng)目，規(guī)?？傆?jì)為249億美元。被取消項(xiàng)目的總價(jià)值接近在建項(xiàng)目的兩倍。

The failures are a blow to China’s reputation for engineering expertise and project management. In 2015, Li Keqiang, the premier, lionised high-speed rail as a way to showcase China’s technology and competitiveness.

上述失敗對(duì)于中國(guó)工程技術(shù)和項(xiàng)目管理的聲譽(yù)是一個(gè)打擊。2015年，中國(guó)總理李克強(qiáng)將高鐵捧為展示中國(guó)技術(shù)和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的途徑。

Each cancelled project was scuppered after agreements were announ­ced by Beijing and the recipient governments. The reasons cited for scrapping the projects included allegations by recipients of insufficient transparency, delays by Chinese contractors and popular opposition. In Libya, the 2011 civil war ended a planned line between Tripoli and Sirte, the former dictator Muammer Gaddafi’s hometown.

每個(gè)被取消的項(xiàng)目都是在北京方面和接受項(xiàng)目的政府公布協(xié)議后泡湯的。被提及的項(xiàng)目取消原因，包括接受國(guó)家有關(guān)透明度不夠的指控、中國(guó)承建商的延誤、以及民眾的反對(duì)。在利比亞，2011年內(nèi)戰(zhàn)終結(jié)了原計(jì)劃從的黎波里到蘇爾特的線路。蘇爾特是利比亞前獨(dú)裁者穆阿邁爾•卡扎菲(Muammer Gaddafi)的家鄉(xiāng)。

The cancellations come despite China’s cost advantages. A 2014 World Bank report found building high-speed rail with a top speed of 350km per hour costs $17m-$21m per km in China, compared with $25m-$39m in Eur­ope and as much as $56m in California.

這些項(xiàng)目是在中國(guó)確實(shí)具有成本優(yōu)勢(shì)的情況下被取消的。2014年世界銀行(WB)一份報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn)，在中國(guó)修建最高時(shí)速為350公里的高鐵，成本為每公里1700萬(wàn)美元到2100萬(wàn)美元，相比之下在歐洲該成本為2500萬(wàn)美元至3900萬(wàn)美元，在加利福尼亞州則高達(dá)5600萬(wàn)美元。

But such advantages can be offset by other drawbacks when Chinese companies work in alien political and business environments, analysts said. Long delays have become commonplace.

不過(guò)，分析師表示，這種優(yōu)勢(shì)可能會(huì)被中國(guó)企業(yè)在陌生的政治和商業(yè)環(huán)境中工作所帶來(lái)的不利因素抵消。項(xiàng)目的長(zhǎng)期拖延已變得十分常見。

Thailand’s military junta this month approved $5.3bn for a Chinese-built high-speed rail line that had been delayed for years, partly because of controversy over the reluctance of Chinese companies to hire Thai engineers.

本月，泰國(guó)軍政府批準(zhǔn)了53億美元撥款，投入由中方承建的一條高速鐵路線。此前該項(xiàng)目被拖延多年，部分是由于中企不愿雇用泰國(guó)工程師所引發(fā)的爭(zhēng)議。