馬克龍、勒龐與民族主義的局限

The first round of the French presidential election has confirmed the new trend in international politics.

法國總統(tǒng)大選第一輪投票確認了國際政治中的一種新趨勢。

In country after country, the most important political division is no longer between left and right — but between nationalist and internationalist.

在一個又一個國家，最重要的政治分界不再處于左翼與右翼之間，而是處于民族主義者與國際主義者之間。

The breakthrough year for the nationalists was 2016 — with Brexit in Britain and victory for Donald Trump in the US. But the French election suggests that France and most of continental Europe will stay on the internationalist side of the line.

對民族主義者而言，2016年是突破性的一年——英國公投決定退出歐盟，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)贏得美國總統(tǒng)大選。但法國大選表明，法國以及歐洲大陸大部分國家將繼續(xù)留在國際主義那一邊。

The contest between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron in the final round of the election on May 7 will be a classic contest between a nationalist and an internationalist. Ms Le Pen wants to pull France out of the European single currency, raise tariffs, strengthen frontier controls and crack down on immigration. Mr Macron is a fervent supporter of the EU and a believer in open trade and a liberal attitude to refugees.

馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)與埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)在5月7日大選最后一輪投票中的角逐，將是一位民族主義者與一位國際主義者之間的經典對決。勒龐希望法國退出歐洲單一貨幣，她想提高關稅，加強邊境管制，打擊移民。馬克龍則是歐盟(EU)的熱情支持者，他信奉開放貿易，對難民持開明態(tài)度。

The opinion polls — which accurately predicted that Mr Macron would narrowly beat Ms Le Pen in the first round of voting — now suggest that he will win a decisive victory in the final round of the election on May 7, gaining more than 60 per cent of the vote.

如今，準確預測出馬克龍將在首輪投票中以微弱優(yōu)勢領先勒龐的民調顯示，馬克龍將在5月7日大選最后一輪投票中贏得決定性勝利，獲得超過60%的選票。

Of course, there is plenty that could still go wrong for him over the next two weeks. Ms Le Pen is a skilled television debater. Mr Macron is a wealthy ex- financier and former minister — who is vulnerable to being portrayed as a member of the out-of-touch elite. He could yet be tripped up by a scandal or a faux pas. But the strong likelihood is that the polls will be accurate and that the internationalist candidate, Mr Macron, will win a clear victory.

當然，未來兩周也可能出現(xiàn)很多變數(shù)。勒龐是一名經驗豐富的電視辯論者。馬克龍曾是一名富有的金融家，還擔任過內閣部長——他容易被描繪成脫離群眾的精英的一員。他仍有可能因一起丑聞或一次失言而栽跟頭。但很大可能是：民調是準確的，信奉國際主義的候選人馬克龍將大獲全勝。

Because the Macron-Le Pen contest is part of an international ideological struggle, the outcome of the vote in France will be watched with intense interest in the rest of the world. The likely victory of Mr Macron will be greeted with delight in Brussels and Berlin, with disappointment in the Kremlin and the Oval Office — and with mixed feelings in London.

鑒于馬克龍與勒龐之間的對決已成為國際意識形態(tài)斗爭的一部分，世界其他地區(qū)將懷著強烈興趣密切關注此次法國大選的投票結果。如果馬克龍獲勝，布魯塞爾和柏林將感到歡欣鼓舞，而克里姆林宮和白宮將感到失望——倫敦則是喜憂參半。

Ms Le Pen campaigned on similar themes to Mr Trump — although her language was considerably more moderate than that of the US president. (The National Front candidate, for example, has never proposed a Trump-style “Muslim ban” on all Muslims entering the country.) The Le Pen family enthusiastically endorsed Mr Trump for the US presidency; and the US president, in turn, has dropped heavy hints on Twitter that he supports Ms Le Pen in France — and expected her to win. But while Mr Trump himself will be disappointed by a Macron victory — his national security advisers, who hold less eccentric views than their boss, are likely to be relieved.

勒龐的競選綱領與特朗普類似——盡管她的言辭比這位美國總統(tǒng)要溫和得多。(例如，這位國民陣線(National Front)候選人從未提議特朗普式的、禁止所有穆斯林進入本國的“禁穆令”。)勒龐家族積極支持特朗普擔任美國總統(tǒng);特朗普則在Twitter上發(fā)出強烈暗示：他支持勒龐，希望她贏得大選。但是，雖然特朗普本人會因馬克龍勝選感到失望，但他的國家安全顧問們(觀念不像自己老板那么怪異)可能會松一口氣。

Russia’s disappointment at a likely Macron victory will be much more straightforward. Mr Macron was the only leading candidate in the first round of voting to support a tough line against Putin’s Russia. A Russian bank has also lent heavily to Le Pen’s National Front — possibly as part of the Kremlin’s investment in disarray in the EU.

俄羅斯對馬克龍可能勝選的失望將更直截了當。馬克龍是首輪投票中唯一支持對普京(Putin)治下的俄羅斯實施強硬路線的領先候選人。俄羅斯一家銀行還大舉放貸給勒龐的國民陣線——可能是作為克里姆林宮投資歐盟亂局的一部分。

The British reaction to a Macron victory will be a mixture of relief and apprehension. The government of Theresa May resists the characterisation of Brexit as a nationalist spasm — and emphasises the UK’s continuing support for free trade and a strong EU. But the problem for Britain is that the EU itself clearly sees Brexit as a manifestation of nationalism within Europe that needs to be dealt with very firmly.

英國對馬克龍勝選的反應將是喜憂參半。特里薩•梅(Theresa May)政府反對將英國退歐比作一次民族主義發(fā)作，強調英國將繼續(xù)支持自由貿易以及強有力的歐盟。但英國面臨的問題是，歐盟自身顯然已將英國退歐視為歐洲內部民族主義的一次體現(xiàn)，需要以非常堅決的態(tài)度加以應對。

In that sense, a likely Macron victory is both good and bad news for the UK. Mr Macron represents the strong and united EU that the May government claims to want. The difficulty from London’s point of view is that this strength and unity is likely to be expressed through a very tough line on Brexit — with a demand for a large, financial settlement from Britain and a resistance to any special deals for the UK, whether on free movement of people or financial services. A Le Pen victory, by contrast, would take Europe in new and dangerous directions — but could help to ease the narrow problem of Brexit, since there might no longer be an EU left to leave.

在這個意義上，馬克龍獲勝(目前看來可能性很大)對英國來說既是好消息也是壞消息。馬克龍代表了強大和統(tǒng)一的歐盟，一個梅政府聲稱想要的歐盟。從倫敦的角度來看，難處在于這種強大和統(tǒng)一很可能表現(xiàn)為對英國退歐持非常強硬的立場，要求英國支付高額“分手費”，抵制為英國安排的任何特殊協(xié)議，無論是關于人員自由流動還是金融服務的。相反，勒龐若獲勝，將讓歐洲轉向新的危險方向，但可以幫助緩解英國退歐的小問題——因為歐盟本身可能都不復存在。

In the wider European context, Mr Macron’s likely victory has to be seen in the context of setbacks for the nationalist right in recent elections in Austria and the Netherlands and their declining fortunes in Germany — where the populist Alternative for Germany party is falling back into single digits in opinion polls. A fresh mandate for Angela Merkel in September’s German elections looks ever more likely. Nationalist parties have taken power in Poland and Hungary — but the original core of the EU is resisting the nationalist tide.

在更廣泛的歐洲背景下，馬克龍的可能獲勝必須放在如下背景中來看：民族主義右派最近在奧地利和荷蘭的選舉中遇挫，以及他們在德國的衰落命運——德國的民粹主義政黨，德國另類選擇黨(Alternative for Germany)在民調中的支持率正跌回個位數(shù)。安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)在德國9月大選中獲得連任的可能性看上去更大了。民族主義政黨雖然在波蘭和匈牙掌握得了政權，但歐盟的創(chuàng)始核心成員仍在抵制著民族主義潮流。

In Brussels, the prospect of a Macron victory will be greeted as an opportunity to restart the Franco-German motor that has traditionally powered the EU. But euphoria would be misplaced. When it comes to economic reform and European integration, Mr Macron says all the “right” things. Whether he can actually deliver them is another matter. Breaking France out of a cycle of low growth, high unemployment and rising debt has proved beyond a succession of ostensibly reformist presidents — including Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy and even the current president, François Hollande. Mr Hollande failed despite appointing a dynamic young economy minister named Emmanuel Macron. Whatever happened to him?

布魯塞爾方面，馬克龍的獲勝前景將被視作重啟法德“發(fā)動機”——歐盟的傳統(tǒng)動力來源——的機會而受到歡迎。但這種興高采烈是一廂情愿的。每每談到經濟改革和歐洲一體化，馬克龍滿口都是“正確”的事情。至于他是否真的能實現(xiàn)，那是另一問題。事實上，一連串看上去主張改革的總統(tǒng)，包括雅克•希拉克(Jacques Chirac)、尼古拉•薩科齊(Nicolas Sarkozy)，甚至現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)弗朗索瓦•奧朗德(François Hollande)，都沒能讓法國走出低增長率、高失業(yè)率和債務不斷上漲的循環(huán)。奧朗德雖然任命了一位年輕的充滿活力的經濟部長，卻依然失敗了，這位經濟部長叫埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍。他到底經歷了什么?