歐洲央行宣告戰(zhàn)勝通縮
馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)宣告已戰(zhàn)勝通縮，并朝著結(jié)束超級寬松貨幣政策邁出了一步，這推高了歐元匯率和德國債券收益率，投資者押注于危機(jī)時期的刺激舉措將告一段落。
Facing growing pressure from monetary hawks in Germany, the ECB president said the bank decided to change its guidance to investors — omitting a reference to using all weapons in its policy arsenal — because of its success against a destabilising bout of falling prices.
面對來自德國貨幣鷹派日益上升的壓力，歐洲央行(ECB)行長表示，歐洲央行決定修改其投資者指引，略去了提及動用現(xiàn)有政策中的所有工具的語句，因?yàn)檫@家央行已成功擊退一輪有損穩(wěn)定的物價下跌。
Though the ECB agreed to keep interest rates at record lows, Mr Draghi said the bank no longer had a “sense of urgency” to take further action on monetary stimulus and that policymakers “do not anticipate that it will be necessary to lower rates further”.
盡管歐洲央行同意將利率保持在創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低位，但德拉吉表示，該銀行對于在貨幣刺激方面采取進(jìn)一步措施不再有“緊迫感”，而且政策制定者“不認(rèn)為進(jìn)一步降息是必要的”。
Investors viewed the remarks as a sign that Mr Draghi was preparing to pare back his historic bond-buying programme, begun two years ago to drive down borrowing costs across the EU and spark spending in the real economy.
投資者認(rèn)為這些言論表明，德拉吉準(zhǔn)備縮減其推出的歷史性的債券購買計(jì)劃。該計(jì)劃始于兩年前，目的是推低歐盟各國的借款成本，促進(jìn)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)中的支出。
The euro rose 0.7 per cent to hit a weekly high of $1.0615 and the yield on the benchmark 10-year German Bund reached their highest levels since early February, at 0.42 per cent. Frederik Ducrozet, senior Europe economist at Pictet Wealth Management, said investors had been poised to react to any hints on tapering: “We know it’s coming but we don’t know when.”
歐元兌美元匯率上漲0.7%，至1歐元兌1.0615美元，為一周高位，基準(zhǔn)的德國10年期國債收益率觸及自2月初以來最高水平，為0.42%。百達(dá)資產(chǎn)管理(Pictet Wealth Management)歐洲高級經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家弗雷德里克•杜克羅澤(Frederik Ducrozet)表示，投資者已準(zhǔn)備好對任何縮減暗示做出反應(yīng)：“我們知道這會出現(xiàn)，但不知道是在何時。”
The shift came as eurozone inflation rose above the ECB’s target of just under 2 per cent for the first time in four years, levels that increased pressure on the bank from German critics to tighten policy. Low interest rates have become politically toxic in Germany, where they are seen as helping struggling southern eurozone members at the expense of German savers.
歐洲央行改變口風(fēng)之際，歐元區(qū)通脹率升至高于歐洲央行設(shè)定的略低于2%的目標(biāo)水平，這是4年來首次，這加大了德國批評者向該銀行施加的收緊政策的壓力。低利率已變成德國的政治毒藥，在德國，這些政策被視為以犧牲德國儲戶的利益為代價，幫助舉步維艱的歐元區(qū)南部成員國。
In yesterday’s closed-door meeting, a group including members of the ECB’s executive board and heads of the German, Dutch, French and Spanish central banks called on Mr Draghi to focus less on the bank’s readiness to step in and offer more stimulus. They urged him to shy away from any remarks that would signal that he believed the recent rise of inflation might peter out.
在昨日的閉門會議上，包括歐洲央行執(zhí)委會成員以及德國、荷蘭、法國和西班牙央行的行長在內(nèi)的人士，呼吁德拉吉減少對該銀行愿意出手并提供更多刺激的關(guān)注。他們敦促他避免作出這樣的表態(tài)，即暗示他認(rèn)為最近的通脹率上升可能會失去后勁。
Speaking to the press after the meeting, Mr Draghi said the ECB was not planning to unleash another round of cheap bank loans and that, because of the improving economy, he had dropped a sentence from his remarks that referred to the ECB’s willingness “to use all the instruments available in its mandate”, if warranted.
德拉吉在會后向媒體發(fā)表講話時表示，歐洲央行不計(jì)劃釋放另一輪廉價銀行貸款，同時由于經(jīng)濟(jì)正在改善，他從他的講話中刪除了提到如果需要，歐洲央行愿意“動用現(xiàn)有授權(quán)中可用的所有工具”的字眼。
While this was a more subtle shift than council hawks wanted, it was more aggressive than markets expected.
盡管這番言論相比執(zhí)委會鷹派人士的愿望是一個更加細(xì)膩的轉(zhuǎn)變，但其激進(jìn)程度仍超過市場預(yù)期。
Markets are now pricing in a 68 per cent chance that the ECB will raise interest rates by August 2018 — up from 31 per cent last week. The bank has made clear for months it will raise interest rates only after it winds down its €60bn-per-month bond-buying programme.
市場現(xiàn)在認(rèn)為，歐洲央行有68%的幾率在2018年8月之前加息，遠(yuǎn)高于上周的31%。數(shù)月以來，歐洲央行已明確表示，只會在結(jié)束其每月600億歐元的債券購買計(jì)劃后才會加息。
