內地投資者推動香港股市上漲

CK Chow struck a cautious note at the start of the week when revealing the Hong Kong Exchange’s annual results. With average daily turnover down 37 per cent, the exchange chairman’s wariness was understandable as he talked of a “challenging” outlook and volatile markets.

本周初，當港交所(HKEx)年報公布時，周松崗(CK Chow)表達了謹慎的看法。在平均日成交量下降37%的情況下，當這位港交所主席談到“具有挑戰(zhàn)性的”前景和動蕩的市場行情時，他的謹慎是可以理解的。

Yet such caution is out of step with the mood. Hong Kong’s blue-chip Hang Seng and China-focused Hang Seng China Enterprises indices are among Asia’s best performers in 2017. Their rallies mark the first positive start to a year for either benchmark since 2012.

不過，這種謹慎與市場情緒不符。由藍籌股組成的恒生指數(Hang Seng Index)和聚焦內地企業(yè)的恒生中國企業(yè)指數(HSCEI，簡稱國企指數)居于2017年開年表現最好的亞洲股指之列。這兩大股指的上漲，均標志著各自2012年以來的首次開年上漲。

The Hang Seng has risen 7.9 per cent, while the HSCEI has climbed 9.5 per cent. Trading volumes in the past month are running a fifth above last year’s average, and block trades — a sign of institutional investor appetite — have picked up sharply.

恒生指數上漲了7.9%，國企指數上漲了9.5%。上個月的交易額比去年平均月交易額高五分之一，大宗交易——標志著機構投資者的胃口——大幅增加。

But this buoyant start has so far failed to deliver the Hang Seng a decisive break above the 24,000 mark, which has, more or less, acted as a ceiling for the past seven years. The index closed 0.8 per cent lower yesterday at 23,740.

但這輪上漲行情目前尚未能使恒生指數穩(wěn)穩(wěn)站到24000點的關鍵點位上方，這一關口或多或少地充當了過去7年恒生指數的天花板。昨日恒生指數收跌0.8%，收于23740點。

The key, say strategists, is how sentiment evolves towards China. More than three-quarters of the Hang Seng’s market capitalisation is made up companies from the mainland. That sharpens the focus on the HSCEI, which consists only of the Hong Kong listings of mainland-based companies.

策略分析師稱，關鍵是市場關于中國內地的情緒將如何演變。恒生指數超過四分之三的市值由內地企業(yè)構成。這強化了人們對國企指數——僅包含在香港上市的內地企業(yè)——的關注。

“Investors tend to only focus on China when they perceive trouble, but we believe now is a good time to consider the opportunities,” says Helen Zhu, head of China equities at BlackRock.

“當投資者察覺有麻煩時，往往只關注中國內地，但我們認為如今是考慮機會的好時機，”貝萊德(BlackRock)中國股票主管朱悅(Helen Zhu)表示。

In terms of earnings, the HSCEI has long appeared to be a bargain, trading on just eight times forecast profits. Although that is up from six times a year ago, it compares with 13 for Shanghai and 23 for the tech-heavy Shenzhen.

在收益方面，長期以來國企指數的估值似乎一直很低，預期市盈率僅為8倍。盡管比一年前的6倍預期市盈率高，但滬指和側重科技股的深指的預期市盈率分別為13倍和23倍。

Investor surveys suggest international fund managers hold the lowest positions in Chinese stocks in a decade, relative to benchmark indices. Yet traders and bankers say international buyers have not been driving the rally, leaving open the possibility they could provide fresh impetus if those underweight investors choose to buy later.

投資者調查表明，相比基準指數，國際基金管理公司持有中國股票的倉位為十年來最低。不過交易員和銀行人士稱，國際買家沒有推動此輪上漲，因此如果那些低配的投資者之后選擇買入，可能提供新的上漲動力。

“In our view, China’s improving fundamentals underpin the recent gains in the equity market,” says John Woods, Asia Pacific chief investment officer for Credit Suisse Private Bank.

“在我們看來，中國不斷改善的基本面支撐了股市最近的漲勢，”瑞士信貸私人銀行(Credit Suisse Private Banking)亞太區(qū)首席投資官約翰•伍茲(John Woods)表示。

He predicts the HSCEI can gain another 11 per cent over the next few months.

他預測，未來數月國企指數可能再上漲11%。

So far the evidence points to mainland investors driving the Hong Kong rally. Net inflows via the Stock Connect trading schemes that link Shenzhen and Shanghai with Hong Kong have reached almost $7bn in 2017 — almost 50 per cent higher than last year.

到目前為止，證據指向了推動香港股市上漲的是內地投資者。2017年，經由滬港通和深港通渠道的凈資金流入達到近70億美元，比去年增加了近50%。

“The key catalyst for the rally is the marked acceleration in southbound Connect flows,” explains Jonathan Garner, chief Asia and emerging markets equity strategist for Morgan Stanley. The bank has a year-end target of 26,000 for the Hang Seng.

“漲勢的關鍵催化劑是滬港通和深港通資金南向流動的明顯加快，”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)亞洲及新興市場首席股票策略師喬納森•加納(Jonathan Garner)解釋稱。該行認為年底恒生指數的目標點位為26000點。

Bankers say the flows are being led by an increase in interest from insurers and mutual funds. As a result, a persistent premium for the domestic A share market over H shares — the Hong Kong shares of mainland groups — is hovering near its lowest in two years. It has fallen to 19 per cent from 37 per cent a year ago.

銀行家表示，南向資金增加，是保險公司和共同基金對香港市場興趣日益濃厚的結果。因此，內地A股對H股(內地公司在香港上市的股票)的持續(xù)溢價徘徊在兩年來的最低點附近。溢價從一年前的37%下降到19%。

The efforts of policymakers in Beijing to cool China’s property market are also encouraging investors to turn to stocks: the Shanghai Composite index finished February with its best performance, up 2.6 per cent, since November.

北京政策制定者給中國房地產市場降溫的努力也促使投資者轉向股票：2月份上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)上漲2.6%，為去年11月以來的最好行情。

The renminbi is playing a role, too. Its fall last year — the offshore rate dropped 5.8 per cent against the dollar — encouraged the mainland move into dollar-pegged Hong Kong as a hedge. This year its gains have been viewed offshore, along with a series of surprisingly positive data on trade and manufacturing, as a sign of China’s stabilising economy.

人民幣匯率也在起作用。去年的人民幣貶值——人民幣兌美元離岸匯率下跌5.8%——促使內地資金進入跟美元掛鉤的香港，以此作為風險對沖。今年，人民幣離岸匯率升高，加上一系列令人驚訝的貿易和制造業(yè)樂觀數據，都表明中國經濟正在企穩(wěn)。

Yet analysts warn that Hong Kong’s rally could yet come undone. They cite the risk of US protectionism to export-heavy China, as well as the rising danger the Federal Reserve could tighten policy more than expected. China’s monetary policy has also been tightening.

然而，分析師們警告稱，香港股市的上漲也可能逆轉。他們提到了美國保護主義對于重度依賴出口的中國的風險，以及不斷升高的美聯儲(Fed)可能超預期收緊政策的危險。一段時間以來，中國也在收緊貨幣政策。

“We can tell a more positive macro story so far this year but I still think it’s too early to say everything is fine with China,” says Kinger Lau, chief China strategist at Goldman Sachs. “Things are getting better but complacency is also quite high — we can say market momentum in the short term will be OK, but longer term I am not so sure.”

“今年到目前為止，我們可以說宏觀經濟呈現出更樂觀的跡象，但我仍認為，要說中國經濟的方方面面都很好，還為時過早，”高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席中國策略師劉勁津(Kinger Lau)說，“形勢變得越來越好，但自滿情緒也相當高——我們可以說，短期市場勢頭將很不錯，但長期勢頭我就不太肯定了。”