白宮和中情局又要鬧僵了

The presidential transition of Donald Trump has turned from reality television into a spy story even Hollywood could not sell: US intelligence services have concluded, along with their British cousins, that President Vladimir Putin of Russia has run a campaign of information warfare to disrupt democracies. The Central Intelligence Agency believes that Moscow aimed to elect Mr Trump.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的總統(tǒng)接班已經(jīng)從電視真人秀演變成了即使是好萊塢也不會兜售的諜戰(zhàn)故事：美國情報人員還有他們的英國同仁都認(rèn)為，俄羅斯總統(tǒng)弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)打了一場旨在破壞民主的信息戰(zhàn)。美國中央情報局(CIA)相信莫斯科的意圖是助特朗普當(dāng)選。

These goals are one and the same. Mr Trump is odds-on to be the most disruptive US president in history. We are in uncharted waters: an American election has never been the target of an intelligence operation run by a KGB veteran. That said, the history of the cold war is a guide to where we are headed.

目的只有一個。特朗普極有可能成為史上最具破壞性的美國總統(tǒng)。我們正航行在一片未知海域：從來沒有一次美國選舉成為一位資深克格勃(KGB)開展情報行動的目標(biāo)。盡管如此，以冷戰(zhàn)的歷史為鑒，我們或許可以知道前方有什么在等著我們。

The CIA itself began trying to fix elections within months of its creation in 1947. The first target was Italy; American spies backhanded bushels of cash to conservative politicians and Catholic priests to shore up Christian Democrats and defeat Communist candidates. It worked. Millions laundered through the Marshall Plan went to conservative and centrist parties in western Europe.

CIA本身從1947年剛成立沒幾個月就開始試圖操縱他國選舉。第一個目標(biāo)是意大利，美國間諜以不尋常的手法向保守派政客和天主教牧師輸送了大量現(xiàn)金，目的是支持天主教民主黨候選人，讓共產(chǎn)黨人落選。這一策略很管用。通過馬歇爾計劃(Marshall Plan)，大量資金流向了西歐的保守政黨和中間路線的政黨。

Then the CIA went global, financing coups d’état and installing corrupt and cruel regimes from Iran to Indonesia. In Japan the agency helped create the Liberal Democratic party that has held power almost continuously from 1955.

接著，CIA把目光放到全球，在從伊朗到印尼等多個國家資助政變、扶植腐敗殘暴的政權(quán)。在日本，CIA幫助創(chuàng)立了自民黨(LDP)，該黨從1955年起幾乎一直掌權(quán)。

The communists were more cruel — and impecunious. The decisive factor was the dollar. Money defeated Moscow in the cold war. US intelligence had the wherewithal to win. Money is power. Mr Trump grasps this. But information is power too. Mr Putin knows that well. And secret information stolen from your enemy is power squared.

共產(chǎn)主義者更冷酷——也更窮。決定性因素是美元。在冷戰(zhàn)中，金錢打敗了莫斯科。美國情報機(jī)構(gòu)擁有獲勝所需的資金。金錢就是力量。特朗普深諳此道。但信息同樣也是力量。普京明了這一點。而從你的敵人那里竊取的秘密情報，就是力量的平方了。

So cold war 2.0 is on. It will be a long game, but right now Mr Putin has an edge. It appears Moscow set out to pick the locks and rifle the files of America’s political parties. But it only used the data purloined from Democrats. WikiLeaks and Twitter bots mindlessly multiplied manipulated news feeds. Together they inflicted death by a thousand tweets on Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

冷戰(zhàn)2.0已經(jīng)打響。這將是持久戰(zhàn)，不過目前普京占了上風(fēng)。似乎是莫斯科撬鎖竊取了美國政黨的文件。不過，它只用了從美國民主黨那里盜走的數(shù)據(jù)。而維基解密(WikiLeaks)和Twitter無意間成倍放大了經(jīng)人為挑選后投送的新聞。它們一道通過上千條Twitter消息宣判了希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)選戰(zhàn)的死刑。

Mr Trump’s hold on the electoral college stands on roughly 80,000 votes. He calls this a landslide while denigrating the CIA and the rest of the US intelligence establishment for their reporting on the Kremlin’s cyberwarfare. Republican leaders in Congress have vowed to lead investigations into Moscow’s manipulations after Mr Trump’s inauguration on January 20. They will not be pretty as they play out.

特朗普憑借大約8萬張普選票鎖定了選舉人票的勝局。他稱這是一次壓倒性勝利，而因為情報部門向國會匯報了克里姆林宮網(wǎng)絡(luò)戰(zhàn)的情況，他對CIA及其他美國情報機(jī)構(gòu)大加貶斥。美國國會的共和黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人已發(fā)誓要在1月20日特朗普就職后，針對莫斯科操縱選舉一事發(fā)起調(diào)查。隨著調(diào)查的展開，情況將不會那么光彩。

Nor will Senate confirmation hearings for the post of secretary of state. Mr Trump did himself no favours by nominating ExxonMobil chief Rex Tillerson, whose business ties to Russia are deep and cosy. The choice alone makes the president-elect look like the Siberian candidate.

參議院對國務(wù)卿人選的確認(rèn)聽證也同樣不會太好看。特朗普提名?？松梨?ExxonMobil)首席執(zhí)行官雷克斯•蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)擔(dān)任這一職位對他本人沒有好處，蒂勒森與俄羅斯保持著友好而密切的業(yè)務(wù)往來。光是這項提名，就讓這位候任美國總統(tǒng)看起來像是來自西伯利亞的候選人。

Mr Trump also has done a deep disservice to the national security of the US by deriding the entire intelligence community and declining to listen to CIA briefings. He evidently does not wish to hear what American spies have to say. His mind is made up; he will not be confused by facts.

特朗普對整個情報界的嘲笑以及他拒絕聽取CIA簡報的行為，對美國國家安全大為有損。他顯然不想聽美國間諜們能說些什么。他主意已定：他不會被事實迷惑。

CIA briefings have been a tradition since 1960. Some presidents-elect loved them, some listened with one ear, but none have cancelled their free subscription to the top-secret daily paper in favour of cable news. In office, presidents from Harry Truman to Barack Obama have used — and some have abused — the power of US intelligence. In 2004, President George W Bush said the CIA was “just guessing” about the course of the war in Iraq. Until now, this was the low point in post-cold war relations between the White House and the CIA. If the agency does not have the president’s ear, it is, to quote Benjamin Disraeli, an exhausted volcano.

聽取CIA簡報是自1960年以來的一個傳統(tǒng)。有的候任總統(tǒng)很喜歡CIA的簡報，有的則不把它們放在心上。不過，還沒有哪位候任總統(tǒng)取消對這一絕密每日報告的免費訂閱而選擇電視新聞的。在總統(tǒng)任內(nèi)，從哈里•杜魯門(Harry Truman)到巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)都曾動用過美國情報的力量——部分總統(tǒng)還濫用過。2004年，喬治•W•布什(George W Bush)總統(tǒng)曾表示CIA“只不過是在猜測”伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭的進(jìn)程。不說眼前，那是冷戰(zhàn)后白宮和CIA關(guān)系處于最低潮的時候。如果總統(tǒng)不再聽取CIA的意見，用本杰明•迪斯雷利(Benjamin Disraeli)的話說，CIA將無異于一座熄滅的火山。

Let me venture an educated guess based on 30 years of reporting and writing about US intelligence. I surmise that the secret services know more than has been disclosed about Mr Putin’s role in hacking and attacking the American political system. They know more about the specific mechanisms of Russia’s weaponising of information stolen from the Democrats and Mrs Clinton — and why the secrets stolen from the Republicans and Mr Trump stayed sheathed.

我根據(jù)自己從事美國情報報道和寫作三十載的經(jīng)驗，斗膽做個猜測。對于普京在竊聽和攻擊美國政治體系中所扮演的角色，美國情報部門了解的情況比披露的要多。關(guān)于俄羅斯為什么把從美國民主黨和希拉里那里竊取的情報當(dāng)作武器加以利用，卻不公開從美國共和黨和特朗普那里竊取的情報，他們知道更多內(nèi)情。

If this information is not disclosed, it will create an unbearable tension in Washington. And if it is disclosed, suspicions could lead straight to Trump Tower. And that in turn could set off a constitutional crisis the likes of which we have not seen since Richard Nixon’s helicopter lifted off from the White House lawn for the last time.

如果不披露這些信息，將會在華盛頓造成令人難以忍受的緊張局面。而如果披露這些信息，人們的懷疑或直指特朗普大廈。這繼而可能引發(fā)一場自理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)最后一次乘坐直升機(jī)從白宮草坪起飛以來最嚴(yán)重的憲政危機(jī)。

The writer’s books include ‘Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA’

本文作者著有《監(jiān)聽大國：首度揭開中情局情報霸權(quán)的驚世內(nèi)幕》(Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA)等書