強美元下特朗普如何削減貿(mào)易逆差？

Donald Trump railed against the effects of an overly strong dollar during the election campaign, warning about the damage it did to US companies’ competitiveness. Unfortunately for the president-elect, his own victory on November 8 has proven to be a catalyst for an even more expensive US currency — in part because of stimulus plans Mr Trump himself is pursuing.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在競選期間曾抱怨美元過分強勢的影響，并警告這對美國企業(yè)競爭力造成損害。不幸的是，他在11月8日的勝選已經(jīng)成為美元進一步走強的催化劑——這部分緣于他打算實施的經(jīng)濟刺激計劃。

America’s growing strong dollar conundrum poses a threat to Mr Trump’s vows to slash the trade deficit. Some leading analysts fear the elevated currency could prompt the incoming administration to lash out with protectionist measures as it attempts to prove it is fighting for US exporters’ interests, with China the likely focal point of early clashes.

美國日益突出的強勢美元難題對特朗普誓言大幅削減貿(mào)易逆差造成威脅。一些知名分析人士擔(dān)心，美元升值或?qū)?dǎo)致下屆政府大量祭出保護主義措施，因為新政府將力圖證明自己在為美國出口商爭取利益，而中國極有可能成為早期沖突的焦點。

“It looks like a slow motion train wreck to me,” said David Dollar, a former US Treasury official in China who is now at Brookings, the think-tank. The Trump plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending were likely to help drive up both interest rates and the dollar and cause the US trade deficit to continue widening, he said. “I’m not sure it’s rational to set reducing the US trade deficit as an objective. But if you do then this policy package does not seem to get us to a more balanced trade situation.”

美國財政部前駐華官員、現(xiàn)供職于智庫布魯金斯學(xué)會(Brookings Institution)的杜大偉(David Dollar)表示：“我覺得這就像一場慢鏡頭的火車事故。”他說，特朗普的減稅及基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出計劃可能幫助推高利率和美元，使美國的貿(mào)易逆差繼續(xù)擴大。“我不確定把減少美國貿(mào)易逆差作為目標是否合理。但是如果這樣做，這種政策組合似乎不會給我們帶來更平衡的貿(mào)易狀況。”

Since the election the trade-weighted dollar is up by about 3.3 per cent. With the incoming administration advocating policies that would boost the budget deficit, something that could prompt the US Federal Reserve to accelerate its rate-lifting plans, analysts including William Cline, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, see further currency gains ahead.

自此次大選開始以來，美元加權(quán)匯率上升了約3.3%。由于即將上臺的新政府提倡可能擴大預(yù)算赤字的政策，很可能促使美聯(lián)儲(Fed)加快其加息計劃，包括彼得森國際經(jīng)濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高級研究員威廉•克萊恩(William Cline)在內(nèi)的分析人士認為，未來美元匯率將進一步升高。

He estimates that as of mid-November the dollar was overvalued by around 11 per cent, and argues that fiscal stimulus and associated interest rate increases risk yet further increases in the dollar. The US current account deficit is on track to widen from 2.7 per cent of gross domestic product this year to nearly 4 per cent by 2021.

他估計，截至11月中旬，美元被高估了約11%，并稱財政刺激伴隨加息可能使美元進一步升值。美國經(jīng)常賬戶赤字預(yù)計將從今年占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)2.7%擴大到2021年的近4%。

Pledges to tackle the trade deficit were a central feature of Mr Trump’s campaign: a September report by advisers Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross, his nominee to be commerce secretary, claimed that eliminating the deficit would lead to a surge in growth — a notion heavily criticised by economists. Mr Trump warned of the damage from a high exchange rate: “It sounds good to say ‘we have a strong dollar’. But that’s about where it stops,” he said.

承諾解決貿(mào)易逆差是特朗普競選綱領(lǐng)中的一個要點：他的兩位顧問彼得•納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)和威爾伯•羅斯(Wilbur Ross)——他已提名后者當(dāng)商務(wù)部長——在9月份的一份報告中指出，消除逆差將使增長大幅加快——這個觀點遭到經(jīng)濟學(xué)家詬病。特朗普警告匯率處于高位所造成的損失，他說：“‘我們有強勢美元’這句話聽起來不錯，但問題在于它止步于何處。”

Some officials fear that with his stimulus and the surging dollar Mr Trump could be creating swings in exchange rates that would eventually lead him to blame trading partners such as China or the EU, heightening the temptation to resort to protectionist policies.

有些官員擔(dān)心在他的刺激政策和美元飆升作用下，特朗普可能造成匯率波動，這最終可能導(dǎo)致他怪罪中國或歐盟等貿(mào)易伙伴，使他更想采取保護主義政策。

The US can weather currency strength much better than many other major economies because of the relatively small role exports play in the economy. But that does not change the fact that a strong dollar would make Mr Trump’s stated goal of attracting manufacturing jobs back to the US more difficult and hurt US competitiveness.

美國對本幣強勢的耐受度遠超其他許多主要經(jīng)濟體，因為出口在其經(jīng)濟中所占分量相對較小。但這改變不了如下事實，強勢美元將令特朗普提出的吸引制造業(yè)工作回歸美國的目標更難實現(xiàn)，且會損害美國的競爭力。

“The main concern that many people should be focusing on is that you could have the beginning of a trade war with the surge in the dollar,” said a senior European trade official.

歐洲一名資深貿(mào)易官員表示：“許多人應(yīng)關(guān)注的主要問題是，美元升值可能是貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)爭的開端。”

Relations with China provide an early test. Having said he will brand the country a currency manipulator soon after taking office, Mr Trump this month accused China of hurting the US with a “devaluation”.

對華關(guān)系將較早經(jīng)受考驗。特朗普曾表示上任后將立即把中國歸為貨幣操縱者，本月他指責(zé)中國用“貶值”來傷害美國。

Yet while the renminbi has depreciated against the dollar since earlier this year, the Chinese authorities have recently been intervening to prevent even steeper declines in the currency.

然而，雖然人民幣兌美元匯率自今年年初以來持續(xù)貶值，但中國當(dāng)局近來一直在干預(yù)阻止人民幣更大幅貶值。

Mr Trump has a number of options if he wants to go after China. The current law would call for intensified dialogue with China — or negotiations — should the administration find Beijing to be a currency manipulator. If that did not lead anywhere it would call for possible sanctions, including the exclusion of Chinese companies from government procurement contracts, something that would have negligible impact on China.

特朗普如果想對付中國，他有很多選擇。美國政府若認為北京是貨幣操縱者，按照現(xiàn)行法律，其應(yīng)加強與中國的對話，或者說談判。如果對話沒有任何效果，就輪到采取可能的制裁措施，包括將中國企業(yè)排除在政府采購合同之外，這對中國的影響可以忽略不計。

Another response could be to declare a balance of payments emergency and invoke a 1974 law that would allow the president to unilaterally impose tariffs up to 15 per cent or other restrictions on Chinese goods for up to 150 days.

另一種對策是宣布美國國際收支進入緊急狀態(tài)，并援引一項1974年的法律，該法規(guī)允許美國總統(tǒng)單方面對中國貨物加征最高達15%的關(guān)稅或施加其他限制，有效期最長150天。