短線視點：美聯(lián)儲加息與人民幣貶值哪個更可怕？

The current will-they-won’t-they game is over at last: the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Wednesday. So say investors, who have fully priced in a quarter-point rise. But for emerging markets, particularly in Asia, such a move will only prompt another question, namely which matters more for 2017 — the Fed, or China?

當(dāng)下這場加不加息的游戲終于要落幕了：美聯(lián)儲(Fed)將在周三加息。投資者是這樣說的，他們?nèi)ρ鹤⒚缆?lián)儲肯定加息25個基點。但對新興市場、尤其是亞洲新興市場而言，此舉只會引發(fā)另一個問題：2017年哪一個因素更重要——美聯(lián)儲，還是中國?

Emerging Asia just suffered its worst month of outflows since the “taper tantrum” of 2013. A net $22bn fled the region’s stock and bond markets in November, according to ANZ in a “Trump tantrum”. Departing investors expect that the president-elect’s infrastructure spending plans and tax cut plans would boost inflation and push up interest rates further. Until the latest move, links between US interest rates and local markets had appeared to weaken, leaving Asia to trade on its relative merits. As a result, this apparent re-coupling has come as a sharp shock.

亞洲新興市場剛剛遭受了自2013年“縮減恐慌”(taper tantrum)以來最嚴(yán)重的月度資金外流。澳新銀行(ANZ)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在“特朗普恐慌”(Trump tantrum)中，11月份亞洲新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體股票和債券市場凈流出220億美元。正在離場的投資者預(yù)期，特朗普的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出計劃及減稅計劃將提高通脹，并進(jìn)一步推高利率。在美聯(lián)儲采取最新動作之前，美國利率水平和亞洲市場之間的關(guān)聯(lián)似乎有所減弱，這使得亞洲可以利用自身的相對優(yōu)勢。因此，關(guān)聯(lián)性重新增強(qiáng)無疑是一次強(qiáng)烈沖擊。

The Fed risk is based on assumptions that the US will curb resurgent inflation with an unexpectedly speedy series of rate rises — hitting Asian borrowers hard. Sharp rises in US yields — 10-year Treasuries hit two-year highs on Monday — have already lifted Asian equivalents. Higher rates in the US would also limit the attraction of EM assets, whose currencies tend to gain only slightly from net inflows, according to research by Société Générale, but weaken sharply when the money moves out.

關(guān)于美聯(lián)儲會帶來什么風(fēng)險，基本假設(shè)是：美國將利用出其不意的一連串快速加息抑制通脹抬頭，這將對亞洲的借款者造成很大沖擊。美國國債收益率大幅上漲——10年期美國國債收益率周一觸及兩年高位——已經(jīng)帶動亞洲國債收益率上升。根據(jù)法國興業(yè)銀行(Société Générale)的研究，美國利率升高還將抑制新興市場資產(chǎn)的吸引力，新興市場的貨幣往往在資金凈流入時只獲得小幅升值，卻在資金流出時大幅貶值。

China’s role depends on its currency and its economy. In spite of Beijing’s slow-and-steady approach, a sharp weakening of the renminbi remains one of emerging Asia’s biggest fears: it risks denting rivals’ export competitiveness at a stroke, as well as destabilising global markets. China’s economic growth, too, is unpredictable as it tries to balance expansion with efforts to streamline inefficient industries. Expect any weakness to show up first in its neighbours’ export and commodity sectors.

中國扮演的角色取決于其貨幣和經(jīng)濟(jì)。雖然北京方面采取了穩(wěn)扎穩(wěn)打的方式，但是人民幣大幅貶值仍是亞洲新興市場最擔(dān)憂的問題之一：大幅貶值可能一舉削弱競爭對手的出口競爭力，還會讓全球市場陷入不穩(wěn)定。中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長也難以預(yù)料，因為中國力圖在精簡低效產(chǎn)業(yè)的同時維持經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張。預(yù)計會先出現(xiàn)疲軟的是其鄰國的出口和大宗商品領(lǐng)域。

The risks posed by China are more alarming, but less measurable than the actions of the Fed. Expect to see China fears cited in moments of market mayhem but the actions of the Fed to play a larger role in everyday emerging Asia.

中國帶來的風(fēng)險更令人擔(dān)憂，但沒有美聯(lián)儲行動所帶來的風(fēng)險那么容易察覺。一旦市場出現(xiàn)動蕩，對中國的擔(dān)憂會被認(rèn)為是造成混亂的原因，但在亞洲新興市場的日常市況中，美聯(lián)儲所采取行動的影響會更大。

Starting on Wednesday, the will-they-won’t-they game will begin all over again as investors attempt to gauge just how hawkish the US central bank really is.

從周三開始，隨著投資者嘗試判斷美國央行的立場到底有多么鷹派，揣測美聯(lián)儲加不加息的游戲?qū)⒃俣壬涎荨?br />