特朗普過(guò)渡團(tuán)隊(duì)需要加快速度

On my first day as head of presidential personnel for Barack Obama, I woke to the surprising headline that Senator Tom Daschle of South Dakota had withdrawn his nomination to be health secretary.

在我擔(dān)任巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統(tǒng)的人事負(fù)責(zé)人的第一天，我注意到一條令人意外的頭條消息：南達(dá)科他州參議員湯姆•達(dá)施勒(Tom Daschle)退出了衛(wèi)生部部長(zhǎng)的提名。

What seemed like a relatively small tax issue was attracting too much media and he decided to bow out. Each day thereafter was filled with additional shocks and a schedule of back-to-back interviews, 400,000 CVs to review and background checks — all amid constant media predictions, which usually had no connection to reality.

看上去相對(duì)較小的稅務(wù)問(wèn)題卻引起了媒體的太多關(guān)注，因此他決定退出。后來(lái)的每一天都充滿更多的震驚和一個(gè)接一個(gè)的面試，需要評(píng)估40萬(wàn)份簡(jiǎn)歷，并展開(kāi)背景調(diào)查。同時(shí)媒體一直在預(yù)測(cè)，而這些預(yù)測(cè)通常都與現(xiàn)實(shí)毫無(wú)關(guān)系。

For a new US administration to begin work straight after inauguration day, a daunting number of decisions have to be made within the weeks following the election. This is particularly true in 2016, where policy differences with the outgoing administration are stark. Had Hillary Clinton won, it would have been a friendly process, with less pressure to replace people or policy. Yet even the most professionally managed transitions are chaotic. If Donald Trump hopes to avoid disruption to the work of government, he needs to organise quickly, starting with personnel.

新一屆美國(guó)政府要在總統(tǒng)就職后馬上開(kāi)展工作的話，必須在選舉后的幾周之內(nèi)做出數(shù)量驚人的決定。2016年尤其如此，因?yàn)樾抡c即將卸任的政府之間的政策分歧明顯。如果是希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)獲勝，這會(huì)是一個(gè)友好的過(guò)程，替換人員或政策的壓力較小。然而，即便是管理最專(zhuān)業(yè)的過(guò)渡也會(huì)是混亂的。如果唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)希望避免他的政府工作中斷，他需要迅速組織，從人事開(kāi)始。

More than 4,000 White House and executive branch positions need to be filled, including more than 1,000 that require Senate confirmation. Picking the appointee is merely the first stage and triggers Federal Bureau of Investigation security clearance, political vetting and a review by the Office of Government Ethics to avoid financial conflicts. For some individuals, it comes as a surprise that they must lay bare all of the activities from their adult lives and unwind financial holdings to remove conflicts. This takes weeks, where seemingly minor queries cripple the wider appointments process.

有超過(guò)4000個(gè)白宮和行政部門(mén)職位需要填補(bǔ)，其中1000多個(gè)需要參議院確認(rèn)。物色人選只是第一步，接下來(lái)是聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局(FBI)的安全檢查、政治審查和政府道德辦公室(Office of Government Ethics)為避免財(cái)務(wù)利益沖突所做的評(píng)估。一些個(gè)人會(huì)吃驚地發(fā)現(xiàn)，他們必須報(bào)告他們成年后的所有活動(dòng)，并賣(mài)掉金融資產(chǎn)，以消除利益沖突。這需要數(shù)周時(shí)間，在這個(gè)過(guò)程中，看似微不足道的調(diào)查會(huì)拖慢整個(gè)任命程序。

President-elect Trump’s transition team has to take some key decisions right now. First, they must be clear with nominees about their redlines on lobbying, representing foreign governments, employing illegal immigrants, infidelity or whether they have used marijuana (even in a state where it is legal). They will also need to consider the different standards of Senate committees; the banking committee has higher standards on tax issues for example. Being upfront will avoid future embarrassment, as the FBI uncovers everything.

當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)特朗普的過(guò)渡團(tuán)隊(duì)需要馬上做出一些重要決定。首先，他們必須讓被提名者清楚他們?cè)谟握f(shuō)、代表外國(guó)政府、聘用非法移民、不忠或者他們是否吸食大麻(即使是在吸大麻合法的州)等方面的紅線。他們還需要考慮各參議院委員會(huì)的不同標(biāo)準(zhǔn);例如，銀行業(yè)委員會(huì)在稅務(wù)問(wèn)題上的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)較高。開(kāi)誠(chéng)布公將避免未來(lái)的尷尬，因?yàn)槁?lián)邦調(diào)查局會(huì)揭露一切。

Second, the transition team needs to decide the importance of diversity in its administration. Once one position is decided, it will dictate the make-up of other appointments. And third, they will need to decide the balance of power in picking appointees in the cabinet agencies: does the cabinet secretary or White House make the final call?

第二，過(guò)渡團(tuán)隊(duì)需要確定新政府多樣性的重要性。一旦確定某個(gè)職務(wù)，它將影響其他任命。第三，他們需要決定內(nèi)閣部門(mén)人員遴選中的權(quán)力平衡：做出最終決定的是內(nèi)閣秘書(shū)長(zhǎng)還是白宮?

Concerns have been expressed that the Trump transition is behind schedule and is struggling to get organised.

有人擔(dān)心，特朗普政府的過(guò)渡工作已落后，而且忙亂沒(méi)有條理。

During the Obama transition, by this stage we had detailed policy plans and agency review teams in place, as well as lists of pre-vetted appointees for the positions requiring Senate confirmation ready on election day. We still entered a world of organised chaos. Our best-laid plans did not survive very long.

在奧巴馬政府過(guò)渡期間，到現(xiàn)在這個(gè)階段，我們已經(jīng)有了詳細(xì)政策計(jì)劃和部門(mén)評(píng)估團(tuán)隊(duì)，經(jīng)過(guò)預(yù)審的需要參議院確認(rèn)的崗位人選名單在選舉日就準(zhǔn)備好了。即便這樣我們還是進(jìn)入了一個(gè)有序混亂的世界。我們?cè)O(shè)計(jì)最完美的計(jì)劃也沒(méi)有堅(jiān)持很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。

Given the apparent lack of planning, Mr Trump’s transition will encounter an exacerbated version of these challenges. The appointments and confirmation process may be messier, particularly at levels below the cabinet where it seems even fewer preparations have been made. This will have a knock-on effect: without these appointees in place, the administration will not be able to implement its policy and budget priorities.

鑒于明顯缺乏計(jì)劃，特朗普的過(guò)渡團(tuán)隊(duì)將遭遇更嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。任命和確認(rèn)程序可能會(huì)更加混亂，尤其是內(nèi)閣以下職務(wù)，特朗普在這方面的準(zhǔn)備似乎做得更少。這將產(chǎn)生連鎖效應(yīng)：如果這些被提名人選沒(méi)有到位，特朗普政府將無(wú)法實(shí)施其政策和預(yù)算優(yōu)先任務(wù)。

Perhaps in the coming weeks, we will see a more organised personnel process from Mr Trump. Failure to do so will mean a less capable leadership and further confusion in Washington. Suspicion will increase in foreign capitals too about Mr Trump’s ability to lead the US.

或許未來(lái)幾周，我們將看到特朗普制定出一個(gè)更有條理的人事任命程序。否則這將意味著領(lǐng)導(dǎo)能力不足，美國(guó)政府將更加混亂。外國(guó)政府也將更加質(zhì)疑特朗普領(lǐng)導(dǎo)美國(guó)的能力。