“世界末日交易”到了？

現(xiàn)在到了世界末日交易了嗎?

In other words, is it time for fund managers to buy ultra-safe assets — the so-called end of the world trades — as the election of Donald Trump as US president heralds a new and highly uncertain period for investors?

換句話說(shuō)，現(xiàn)在是基金經(jīng)理購(gòu)買超級(jí)安全資產(chǎn)(所謂的世界末日交易)的時(shí)候嗎?因?yàn)樘萍{德•特朗普(Donald Trump)當(dāng)選美國(guó)總統(tǒng)給投資者帶來(lái)一段高度不確定的新時(shí)期?

Despite a boost to US stocks on expectations of Trump tax cuts and infrastructure spending, fund managers may be entering a period of extreme instability as a populist backlash threatens to create havoc with the markets.

盡管對(duì)特朗普減稅以及基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出的預(yù)期提振了美國(guó)股市，但基金經(jīng)理們可能正進(jìn)入一個(gè)極度不穩(wěn)定時(shí)期，其間民粹主義反彈可能會(huì)震蕩市場(chǎng)。

Lightning is not supposed to strike twice. But after the Brexit poll in June and Mr Trump’s victory last week, there is a danger that other populist electoral bolts from the blue will rock the world over the coming months.

閃電不應(yīng)該兩次擊中同一個(gè)地方。但在今年6月的英國(guó)退歐公投和特朗普最近當(dāng)選美國(guó)總統(tǒng)后，危險(xiǎn)在于，其他突如其來(lái)的民粹主義投票結(jié)果將在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月震撼世界。

The Italian government faces the prospect of a reverse in a constitutional referendum next month, National Front leader Marine Le Pen could win the French presidency next year, while Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, could be deposed in her country’s elections, also next year. Populist victories in any of these polls will represent not just a political sea change, but an oceanic upheaval.

意大利政府下月將面臨被憲法公投趕下臺(tái)的可能性。國(guó)民陣線(National Front)領(lǐng)袖馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)可能會(huì)贏得明年的法國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選。德國(guó)總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)可能會(huì)在該國(guó)明年大選中被趕下臺(tái)。民粹主義勢(shì)力在這些選舉中的勝利不僅代表著政治劇變，而且代表著翻天覆地的全方位變化。

So does it make sense to plump for safety trades, rather than bank on the so-called Trump reflation trade that has boosted US stocks?

那么選擇安全交易(而不是指望近期提振了美國(guó)股指的特朗普通貨再膨脹交易)是否合理?

UK government bonds, particularly at the short end of the curve, could offer a good store of value. Gains in the gilts market have reversed over the past few weeks, making them more attractive.

英國(guó)政府債券(尤其是期限較短的)可能提供很好的保值手段。過去幾周，英國(guó)金邊債券市場(chǎng)的上漲趨勢(shì)已逆轉(zhuǎn)，這讓它們顯得更具吸引力。

There is also logic in buying sterling at low levels, as these UK assets have what some investors are describing as first-mover advantage. They have already taken their hit from the UK’s vote to leave the EU in June.

以低價(jià)買入英鎊也有道理，這些英國(guó)資產(chǎn)具備某些投資者所稱的先行者優(yōu)勢(shì)。英國(guó)在今年6月投票脫離歐盟已讓它們?cè)馐艽驌簟?/p>

Gold is another haven trade, particularly with some investors arguing that Mr Trump’s policies may be inflationary. Gold is considered a good hedge against inflation and uncertainty.

黃金是另一種避險(xiǎn)交易，特別是一些投資者辯稱，特朗普的政策可能會(huì)引發(fā)通脹。黃金被視為對(duì)抗通脹和不確定性的良好避險(xiǎn)工具。

With Mr Trump and other governments keen to use infrastructure investment as a way to boost their economies as monetary policy runs out of steam, stocks that benefit from this type of spending would make obvious trades in the equity markets.

隨著貨幣政策逐漸失去效力，特朗普和其他國(guó)家的政府希望利用基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資來(lái)刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)，獲益于此類支出的股票將成為股市中的明顯買入對(duì)象。

The possible reflation trade from Mr Trump’s victory is interesting. It shows the playbook in the wake of his election may not be the same as the one after Brexit.

特朗普成功當(dāng)選可能帶來(lái)的通貨再膨脹交易很有意思。這表明，他當(dāng)選后的股市操盤對(duì)策可能與英國(guó)退歐后不同。

If Mr Trump does implement his pledges on infrastructure, then that should help economic growth, not weigh on it as Brexit has done. Another factor that may help growth is the increasing likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will delay rate rises. Markets have scaled back expectations for rate increases in December.

如果特朗普果真兌現(xiàn)其基建承諾，那應(yīng)該有利于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，而不是像英國(guó)退歐那樣令經(jīng)濟(jì)承壓。另一個(gè)可能有利于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的因素是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)推遲加息的可能性越來(lái)越大。市場(chǎng)已降低對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)12月加息的預(yù)期。

This should restrain the dollar, which may be reaching its ceiling, even if the Fed tightens. This would be positive for emerging markets.

這應(yīng)該會(huì)制約美元匯率(美元匯率可能正接近峰值)——即便美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收緊也是如此。這將對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)有利。

However, Mr Trump’s rhetoric and his actions may be very different. He could face opposition from Congress in terms of what he might like to do on infrastructure spending and tax cuts. Paul Ryan, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, is a fiscal conservative, who will probably act as a constraint on Mr Trump and his plans.

然而，特朗普可能會(huì)言行不一。在基建支出和減稅方面，他希望采取的行動(dòng)可能會(huì)遭遇國(guó)會(huì)反對(duì)。眾議院議長(zhǎng)、共和黨人保羅•瑞安(Paul Ryan)是個(gè)財(cái)政保守派，他很可能會(huì)牽制特朗普及其計(jì)劃。

The other important factor is international trade. If Mr Trump commits himself to even half of what he has promised in terms of protecting the US and American workers’ jobs from overseas competition, then world trade and the US economy is likely to suffer.

另外一個(gè)重要因素是國(guó)際貿(mào)易。如果特朗普在保護(hù)美國(guó)和美國(guó)勞動(dòng)者就業(yè)不受海外競(jìng)爭(zhēng)影響方面哪怕只兌現(xiàn)了一半的承諾，世界貿(mào)易和美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)也很可能會(huì)受損。

But, crucially, Mr Trump and Brexit may be the populist canaries in the coal mine. If the Italian referendum and French and German elections are overwhelmed by a wave of populist anger and resentment, then the whole EU project may be thrown into grave doubt, as well as the US economy.

然而，重要的是，特朗普和英國(guó)退歐可能是在煤礦中發(fā)出民粹主義警報(bào)的金絲雀。如果意大利憲法公投以及法國(guó)和德國(guó)大選被民粹主義憤怒和憎恨的浪潮所吞噬，那么整個(gè)歐盟一體化項(xiàng)目可能受到嚴(yán)重質(zhì)疑，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)也是如此。

That really would leave fund managers with little choice but to play it safe with clients’ investments. When Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, assets across the board went into reverse, with very few exceptions. If that is repeated in the event of a growing populist backlash, the so-called end of the world trade may be limited to buying short-dated Treasury bills and cash — and little else.

那將真的會(huì)讓基金經(jīng)理幾乎毫無(wú)選擇，只能安全處置客戶的投資。雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)在2008年倒閉后，各類資產(chǎn)全面逆轉(zhuǎn)方向，幾乎無(wú)一例外。如果這種情況在民粹主義反彈加劇時(shí)再度出現(xiàn)，那么所謂的世界末日交易可能僅限于購(gòu)買短期美國(guó)國(guó)債和現(xiàn)金，幾乎沒有其他資產(chǎn)值得擁有。