10月份中國零售總額增長放緩

China’s retail sales softened as industrial production and investment held more or less steady in spite of a weaker showing from exports last month.

10月份，中國社會消費品零售總額增長放緩。另一方面，盡管上月出口走弱，中國規(guī)模以上工業(yè)增加值和全國固定資產(chǎn)投資增長仍大致保持平穩(wěn)。

Industrial production rose 6.1 per cent year on year in October, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, unchanged from September’s level and just below a median forecast from economists of 6.2 per cent.

根據(jù)中國國家統(tǒng)計局的數(shù)據(jù)，10月份中國規(guī)模以上工業(yè)增加值同比增長6.1%，與9月份的增幅一致，略低于經(jīng)濟學(xué)家的預(yù)期中值6.2%。

That was in line with last month’s manufacturing PMIs, which showed an uptick in sector activity, and despite exports having fallen 7.3 per cent during the same period.

這與上月制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(PMI)的表現(xiàn)相一致，PMI顯示制造業(yè)活動有所擴張。此外，規(guī)模以上工業(yè)增加值的同比增長，是在同期出口下滑7.3%的背景下取得的。

But retail sales growth softened to 10 per cent in October, betraying economists’ expectations it would hold steady at 10.7 per cent growth from September. That deceleration could prove a spoiler to broader growth if it continues apace, as observers have attributed sustained activity growth among manufacturers to stronger domestic demand.

不過，10月份社會消費品零售總額增速放緩至10%，低于經(jīng)濟學(xué)家的預(yù)期。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家曾預(yù)期，10月份的增速將與9月份一致，同為10.7%。這種迅速放緩的勢頭如果延續(xù)下去，可能會阻礙更廣泛的增長。觀察人士認為，制造業(yè)企業(yè)活動的持續(xù)擴張源于國內(nèi)需求的增長。

Economists had likewise expected year-to-date urban fixed asset investment, a rough proxy for long-term spending, to remain at September’s level of 8.2 per cent year on year growth. Instead it ticked upward slightly to 8.3 per cent.

經(jīng)濟學(xué)家原本還預(yù)計，今年1至10月份全國固定資產(chǎn)投資(不含農(nóng)戶)增長速度會與1至9月份的增長速度8.2%持平。實際上，1至10月份的增速小幅升至8.3%。該指標大致反映了長期支出。

Private investment for the year ended October was up 2.9 per cent, up 0.4 percentage points, while state investment dropped 1.1 percentage points to 20.5 per cent. That pushed the state share of total investment for the year to date down marginally to 36.6 per cent, still the largest share since 2011 and reflecting the outsize role of government spending in sustaining economic growth during 2016.

今年1至10月份的民間固定資產(chǎn)投資同比增長2.9%，比1至9月份的增速快了0.4個百分點。國有控股投資增速下滑1.1個百分點至20.5%，這使得國有控股投資在今年1至10月份全國固定資產(chǎn)投資總額中所占的比例小幅下滑至36.6%，但這仍是2011年以來的最高占比之一，反映出今年政府開支在支撐經(jīng)濟增長方面發(fā)揮著巨大作用。