特朗普顧問(wèn)淡化美中貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)可能性

Advisers to president-elect Donald Trump have already begun playing down the prospect of a full-blown US trade war with China, amid concern that a new era of US protectionism would have damaging consequences for the global economy.

美國(guó)當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的顧問(wèn)們已經(jīng)在著手淡化美中發(fā)生全面貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的可能性。人們擔(dān)心，美國(guó)步入新的貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義時(shí)代會(huì)對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)造成破壞性影響。

Indeed, some analysts wonder whether the tough trade promises made on the campaign trail may take a back seat as Mr Trump focuses on tax cuts and an infrastructure programme designed to boost US growth, the prospect of which has buoyed markets since Tuesday’s election.

事實(shí)上，部分分析人士在想，特朗普會(huì)不會(huì)把競(jìng)選過(guò)程中作出的強(qiáng)硬貿(mào)易承諾放在次要位置上，而集中精力推行減稅和旨在促進(jìn)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的基建計(jì)劃——自上周二美國(guó)大選以來(lái)，這種可能性對(duì)市場(chǎng)起到了提振作用。

“There aren’t going to be trade wars,” Wilbur Ross, the New York investor and Trump adviser, told US media last week.

特朗普的顧問(wèn)、紐約投資人士威爾伯•羅斯(Wilbur Ross)上周向美國(guó)媒體表示：“不會(huì)發(fā)生貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的。”

Mr Ross argues that Mr Trump’s widely-quoted campaign threat to impose a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese imports — seized on by economists as the potential trigger for a trade war with Beijing — has been misunderstood and amounts only to negotiating tactics.

特朗普曾在競(jìng)選過(guò)程中威脅稱，要對(duì)從中國(guó)進(jìn)口的商品征收稅率為45%的關(guān)稅。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們抓住這句話不放，稱此舉可能引發(fā)與中國(guó)的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。對(duì)此，羅斯辯稱道，人們誤解了特朗普這句被廣泛援引的話，它只能算是談判的戰(zhàn)術(shù)。

Such a figure would be dependent on a finding that China’s currency, the renminbi, was undervalued by 45 per cent, Mr Ross says. The International Monetary Fund has called the RMB fairly valued while US officials point out any recent intervention by Beijing in currency markets has been designed to slow a market-driven decline, arguably to the US’s benefit.

羅斯表示，這一數(shù)字可能是基于一項(xiàng)認(rèn)為人民幣匯率被低估了45%的研究結(jié)果。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)已表示，人民幣的估值是合理的。美國(guó)官員也指出，中國(guó)政府最近對(duì)匯市作出的任何干預(yù)，都旨在延緩一輪由市場(chǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)的人民幣貶值，這可以說(shuō)是對(duì)美國(guó)有益的。

While escalation to a full trade war is in doubt, this does not mean a Trump administration is planning to be soft with China.

雖然升級(jí)為全面貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的前景存疑，但這并不意味著特朗普政府打算對(duì)華采取溫和立場(chǎng)。

Mr Trump has promised to direct his Treasury Secretary to label China a currency manipulator within his first 100 days, something the outgoing President Barack Obama avoided doing for fear of provoking Beijing.

特朗普承諾，要在上任百日內(nèi)指示美國(guó)財(cái)政部將中國(guó)列為匯率操縱國(guó)。由于擔(dān)心激怒北京方面，目前即將卸任的美國(guó)總統(tǒng)巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)過(guò)去一直沒(méi)有這么做。

Although such a move would be largely symbolic and carry few immediate trade consequences “this would almost certainly incite an aggressive reaction from China, rapidly escalating bilateral tensions,” says Eswar Prasad, a former IMF China expert now at Cornell University.

曾任IMF中國(guó)部專家、如今在康奈爾大學(xué)(Cornell University)任教的埃斯瓦爾•普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示，雖然此類舉措在很大程度上將是象征性的、對(duì)貿(mào)易幾乎沒(méi)有什么即刻影響，但“這么做幾乎肯定會(huì)引發(fā)中國(guó)的強(qiáng)硬反應(yīng)，迅速加劇雙方之間的緊張態(tài)勢(shì)”。

Mr Trump would undoubtedly bring high-profile cases against China at the World Trade Organisation and impose steep anti-dumping tariffs against steel and other Chinese imports, much as the Obama administration has. His 100-day plans calls for his administration to “identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers” and “use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately”.

特朗普無(wú)疑會(huì)在世界貿(mào)易組織(WTO)對(duì)華發(fā)起高調(diào)的訴訟，對(duì)鋼材和其他從中國(guó)進(jìn)口的商品征收高額反傾銷稅——這很像奧巴馬政府已經(jīng)采取的做法。特朗普的百日計(jì)劃要求其政府“甄別出一切對(duì)美國(guó)勞動(dòng)者造成不公平影響的外國(guó)貿(mào)易不當(dāng)行為”，并“依據(jù)美國(guó)及國(guó)際法律動(dòng)用各種手段立刻掃滅這些不當(dāng)行為”。

Mr Trump could also toughen foreign investment rules and the national security-focused review process conducted by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS).

特朗普還可能收緊外國(guó)投資規(guī)定和由美國(guó)外國(guó)投資委員會(huì)(CFIUS)開(kāi)展的、聚焦于國(guó)家安全的審查流程。

China has long complained the current system discriminates against its companies. Yet some see Mr Trump embracing congressional calls to broaden CFIUS’s remit to add a net economic benefit test or other strategic considerations in a move that could block more Chinese investments in the US.

長(zhǎng)時(shí)間來(lái)，中國(guó)一直抱怨美國(guó)現(xiàn)行制度歧視中國(guó)企業(yè)。不過(guò)，有些人認(rèn)為特朗普會(huì)對(duì)國(guó)會(huì)擴(kuò)大CFIUS職責(zé)的呼聲采取支持態(tài)度。美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)呼吁在CFIUS的審查流程中增添一項(xiàng)凈經(jīng)濟(jì)效益考察或者其他戰(zhàn)略考量，此舉可能會(huì)封殺更多的中國(guó)對(duì)美投資。

But such a step would hit part of the economic relationship growing in the US’s favour. According to a new study by the Rhodium Group, a research firm, cumulative US direct investment in China between 1990 and 2015 reached $228bn. The Chinese equivalent into the US was worth $64bn. But this year alone Chinese FDI into the US is poised to hit a record $30bn, according to Rhodium, and anything disturbing that would hit American workers.

但這樣的舉動(dòng)將對(duì)日益有利于美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)往來(lái)造成部分沖擊。研究機(jī)構(gòu)榮鼎咨詢(Rhodium Group)的一項(xiàng)新研究顯示，1990年至2015年間，美國(guó)對(duì)華直接投資累計(jì)達(dá)2280億美元。而中國(guó)對(duì)美的同類投資為640億美元。但榮鼎咨詢的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，僅今年一年中國(guó)對(duì)美的直接投資就將達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的300億美元，任何干擾這一趨勢(shì)的舉措都將對(duì)美國(guó)勞動(dòng)者造成沖擊。

What happens next will depend on who Mr Trump brings into office with him.

至于接下來(lái)會(huì)發(fā)生什么，取決于特朗普會(huì)任命誰(shuí)進(jìn)入他的政府。

Dan DiMicco, the former chief executive of steel company Nucor and a longtime advocate of a tougher US line on China, is the point person on trade in Mr Trump’s transition team. Mr DiMicco, who is a candidate for both Commerce Secretary and US Trade Representative, told the FT on Saturday that any notions of a Trump administration taking a softer post-election line on trade were “false rumours”.

在特朗普的過(guò)渡班子中，貿(mào)易問(wèn)題的負(fù)責(zé)人是鋼鐵企業(yè)紐柯(Nucor)前首席執(zhí)行官、長(zhǎng)期鼓吹美國(guó)對(duì)華采取更強(qiáng)硬立場(chǎng)的丹•迪米科(Dan DiMicco)。迪米科既是美國(guó)商務(wù)部長(zhǎng)的候選人，也是美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表(US Trade Representative)的候選人。上周六，迪米科向英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示，所有關(guān)于大選后上臺(tái)的特朗普政府會(huì)軟化其先前貿(mào)易立場(chǎng)的說(shuō)法都是“謠言”。

Another campaign adviser, economist Peter Navarro, is a well-known China hawk whose 2013 film “Death by China” was praised by Mr Trump as an “important documentary”.

特朗普的另一位競(jìng)選顧問(wèn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家彼得•納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)是著名的對(duì)華鷹派，特朗普曾稱贊他在2013年制作的影片《致命中國(guó)》(Death by China)是一部“重要的紀(jì)錄片”。

But Mr Trump’s running mate, Mike Pence, who has taken charge of the transition, is a free trader who as governor in Indiana has travelled to China to court investment. Moreover, there are already signs the Republican trade establishment is entering the fray with a former US Chamber of Commerce lobbyist, Rolf Lundberg, put in charge of the transition’s trade policy implementation.

不過(guò)，特朗普的競(jìng)選搭檔、負(fù)責(zé)過(guò)渡工作的邁克•彭斯(Mike Pence)是個(gè)主張自由貿(mào)易的人。作為印第安納州州長(zhǎng)，彭斯曾赴中國(guó)招商引資。此外，已有跡象顯示共和黨貿(mào)易建制派正參與進(jìn)來(lái)，前美國(guó)商會(huì)(US Chamber of Commerce)游說(shuō)人士羅爾夫•倫德伯格(Rolf Lundberg)就被指派負(fù)責(zé)過(guò)渡班子的貿(mào)易政策實(shí)施工作。

“Given how the financial markets are reacting — which is splendid from a Trump viewpoint — I don’t think Trump’s trade team will want the trade part to spoil the [economic benefits of the] fiscal stimulus part,” says Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高級(jí)研究員加里•赫夫鮑爾(Gary Hufbauer)表示：“考慮到金融市場(chǎng)目前的反應(yīng)——在特朗普看來(lái)反應(yīng)相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)——我不認(rèn)為特朗普的貿(mào)易團(tuán)隊(duì)希望貿(mào)易這部分毀掉財(cái)政刺激那部分(帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)好處)。”

Some in China are optimistic. “Most American presidential candidates don’t carry out their threats once they become president,” says Li Xinchuang, head of the China Metallurgical Planning and Research Institute.

部分中國(guó)人士持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度。中國(guó)冶金工業(yè)規(guī)劃研究院(China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute)院長(zhǎng)李新創(chuàng)表示：“多數(shù)美國(guó)總統(tǒng)候選人在當(dāng)選后都不會(huì)把選舉時(shí)的威脅付諸實(shí)施。”

Others remain fearful, however. “In the post-Cold War era, Trump is an unprecedented protectionist,” says Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing. “Sooner or later his protectionism and populism will damage Sino-US trade relations.”

但也有些人士仍然感到擔(dān)憂。“在后冷戰(zhàn)時(shí)代，特朗普是個(gè)史無(wú)前例的貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義者。”中國(guó)人民大學(xué)(Renmin University)國(guó)際關(guān)系學(xué)教授時(shí)殷弘表示，“他的保護(hù)主義和民粹主義遲早會(huì)破壞中美貿(mào)易關(guān)系。”