中國出臺“最嚴措施”限制赴香港買保險

Queueing outside insurance sales offices is not a normal Friday night activity in any part of the world. So when Chinese citizens started lining up to see insurance agents in Hong Kong last month, it was clear that something was amiss.

無論是在世界上的哪個地方，在保險公司外面排隊都不會是周五晚上的正?；顒影才?。因此，上個月中國內地居民開始排隊與香港的保險經紀人會面的時候，顯然是出了什么事了。

Mainland Chinese customers have been buying life insurance in Hong Kong for more than a decade. The pace has quickened over the past 15 months, however, with some people paying millions of dollars in premiums as a means of moving their cash offshore and into a different currency.

中國內地客戶從10多年前就開始在香港購買人壽保險了。然而，過去15個月這種現象猛增，一些人支付數百萬美元的保費，作為一種將現金轉移出境并兌換成不同貨幣的途徑。

But China UnionPay, the state-backed bank card monopoly that has acted as the primary conduit for purchases of insurance policies in Hong Kong, has moved to limit use of the channel, delivering what is likely to be a blow to the rapid growth in premiums many insurers have enjoyed over the past year.

但中國政府支持的銀行卡壟斷機構中國銀聯(China UnionPay)已著手限制使用銀聯卡進行這種交易。此前，銀聯卡是內地居民在香港購買保險的主要支付渠道。這一限制措施可能讓許多在過去一年里保費高速增長的保險公司遭受沖擊。

The rise of cross-border business in Hong Kong has been a boon to many Asian insurers, coming at a time when growth in other parts of the region is stuttering.

香港跨境保險業(yè)務的增長對很多亞洲保險公司而言是福音，因為在同一時間，它們在亞洲其他地區(qū)的增長較為乏力。

At UK-based Prudential, for example, Hong Kong sales jumped 58 per cent year-on-year for the first six months of 2016. Sales in Indonesia and Singapore, by contrast, fell. Hong Kong now accounts for more than half of Prudential’s Asian sales, up from one-fifth five years ago.

比如，2016年上半年，英國保誠集團(Prudential)在香港的保險銷售額同比躍升58%。相比之下，該公司在印尼和新加坡的保險銷售額下降了。香港現在占保誠在亞洲保險銷售額的一半以上，5年前則為五分之一。

Hong Kong-based AIA has also benefited from the trend — Hong Kong now accounts for almost 40 per cent of its new business — as have other insurers such as Canada’s Manulife.

總部在香港的友邦保險(AIA)也得益于這股趨勢，香港現在占其新業(yè)務的近40%。加拿大宏利(Manulife)等其他保險公司也受益匪淺。

UnionPay said last month that cardholders would no longer be able to use its services to buy insurance products with investment or savings components — by far the best-selling policies on the market.

中國銀聯上月表示，銀聯卡持卡人今后不能刷銀聯卡購買具有儲蓄和投資性質的保險產品——這是該市場上最暢銷的保險品種。

The move follows two similar efforts earlier in the year, but Linda Sun-Mattison, a Bernstein analyst, says the latest change was “the most draconian”.

今年早些時候已有過兩次類似的動作，但伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)分析師琳達•蘇-馬蒂森(Linda Sun-Mattison)表示，最新的這次“最為嚴苛”。

“We believe . . . many of the companies will take a hit, at least in the short term,” says Grace Zhou, a Hong Kong-based ICBC International analyst. “The restrictions are for the most popular products.”

“我們認為……至少從短期來說，許多公司將遭受打擊，”香港工銀國際(ICBC International)分析師Grace Zhou說：“這些限制針對的是最受歡迎的產品。”

Mainland Chinese customers accounted for about 20 per cent of AIA’s total premium and 19.5 per cent of its value of new business, according to ICBC research. It is difficult to estimate what percentage is purchased with a UnionPay card but Ms Zhou says that if 50 per cent of the purchases were made with the cards, the clampdown could cut off 9.8 per cent of the company’s value of new business.

根據工銀的研究，中國內地客戶約占友邦保險總保費的20%，占其新業(yè)務價值的19.5%。很難估計刷銀聯卡購買的比例，但Grace Zhou表示，如果有50%的保險購買是用銀聯卡完成的，上述限制措施將使該公司的新業(yè)務價值減少9.8%。

Rumours of the clampdown, which circulated in Chinese media a day before the announcement from UnionPay, prompted long lines of customers hoping to buy products before the policies were taken off the shelves, according to analysts covering the industry.

據行業(yè)分析師稱，在銀聯發(fā)布聲明的前一天，中國內地媒體圈子里就流傳著銀聯將打擊購買香港保險的消息，這些傳言導致客戶排起長隊希望在政策出臺之前完成投保。

The mainland Chinese who succeeded in purchasing a policy will have been some of the last to do so using a China-issued card. The largest insurers in the city on the following day quickly changed the products available to UnionPay customers.

成功在香港投保的中國內地消費者將成為使用銀聯卡購買此類保險的最后一批人。在聲明公布后的第二天，香港大型保險公司迅速修改了針對銀聯客戶的產品。

UnionPay’s latest move will not kill the cross border business entirely. Analysts point out that Chinese customers have other ways to pay for their insurance policies and that regular premium business should be less affected than large, one-off policies. Prudential has focused on regular premium products across its Asian operations.

銀聯的最新舉措不會完全扼殺香港跨境保險業(yè)務。分析師指出，中國內地消費者還有其他支付方式，與一次性躉交大額保單相比，期交保費業(yè)務受到的影響較小。保誠的亞洲業(yè)務一直專注于期交保費產品。

Even if mainlanders buy less in the territory than they used to, the big insurers also have Chinese domestic businesses that could pick up some of the slack.

即便內地消費者在香港購買的保險產品數量不如以前，大型保險公司在中國內地還設有業(yè)務，可以彌補一些損失。

And while regulatory changes might affect new business in Hong Kong, the impact on insurers’ profits will be more muted.

監(jiān)管改革可能會影響香港保險公司的新業(yè)務，但對保險公司利潤的影響將較為有限。

“With insurers, at least two-thirds of the value is in the back book,” says Gordon Aitken, analyst at RBC Capital Markets in London. “The Hong Kong growth will have an impact but these are 10-year policies.”

“對于保險公司而言，至少三分之二的價值來自于續(xù)期保單，”加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(RBC Capital Markets)駐倫敦分析師戈登•艾特肯(Gordon Aitken)表示，“香港保險業(yè)增長會受一定影響，但很多都是10年期的保單。”

For example, although Hong Kong is Prudential’s biggest Asian market in terms of sales, it is only number three in terms of profits. Analysts say that while the sales line fluctuates (five years ago, Indonesia was its biggest Asian market by sales), profits should be steadier.

例如，按照保險銷售額計算，香港是保誠在亞洲的最大市場，但如果按利潤算的話只能排在第三。分析人士表示，銷售額狀況會波動(5年前，印尼是該公司在亞洲銷售額最高的市場)，但利潤應該會比較穩(wěn)定。

The strength of Hong Kong has not been to everyone’s taste. “We downgraded [Prudential] stock in December because of Asian growth. We thought Hong Kong would be strong and we thought the market wouldn’t like the lack of diversity,” says Mr Aitken.

香港的優(yōu)勢并非人人看好。艾特肯表示：“去年12月，由于亞洲的增長狀況，我們下調了(保誠)股票的評級。我們認為，香港將表現強勁，我們認為這個市場不會喜歡缺乏多樣性。”

Prudential shares are down 12 per cent year to date, while AIA has managed a 5 per cent rise, broadly in line with the Hang Seng.

今年迄今，保誠股價下跌12%，而友邦股價則實現了5%的漲幅，與恒生(Hang Seng)指數的走勢基本一致。

And although Hong Kong is a strong market at the moment, Mr Aitken believes that other countries will recover. “Long-term growth drivers are there in all geographies. The growth in the middle class and the need to close the social security net are still there. Indonesia and Malaysia have stronger growth prospects than Hong Kong in the long term.”

盡管香港目前是一個強勁的市場，但艾特肯認為，其他市場將會回暖。“亞洲所有地區(qū)都出現了推動長期增長的因素。中產階級的壯大以及完善社保網絡的必要性仍然存在。長期來看，印尼和馬來西亞的增長前景好于香港。”