“蒜你狠”在中國卷土重來

The Dutch had Tulip mania in the 17th century, but the Chinese are grappling with a bubble in a bulb of a more pungent sort: garlic.

十七世紀，荷蘭曾出現對郁金香的狂熱炒作。如今，中國人正在應對一場涉及一種更辛辣植物球莖的泡沫：大蒜泡沫。

Prices have almost doubled in the past year to a record as poor weather and a surge of interest from speculative buyers has turbocharged the market. Given China accounts for more than 80 per cent of the world’s garlic exports, importers are struggling.

過去一年里，中國的大蒜價格幾乎上漲了一倍，達到創(chuàng)紀錄水平，惡劣的天氣和投機性買家的興趣大增令大蒜市場變得異?；鸨？紤]到中國占全球大蒜出口的逾80%，大蒜進口國目前的處境很艱難。

“I’ve just come back from China and you can’t buy [any garlic] now,” said Joey Dean of Denimpex, a fruit and vegetable trader in Amsterdam, “Big speculators with big amounts of money have bought quite a lot of volume.”

阿姆斯特丹水果蔬菜交易商Denimpex的喬伊•迪安(Joey Dean)表示：“我剛從中國回來，如今已經買不到(任何大蒜)了。擁有大筆資金的大投機商已經買走了相當多數量的大蒜。”

There no garlic futures in China, but the renminbi price for the physical product started to rally in late 2015 after heavy rains, then snow, damaged the Chinese crop planted for the 2016 harvest. The jump in the price to a record drew in speculative buying, fanning the upward surge, according to analysts.

中國沒有大蒜期貨，不過，大蒜現貨的人民幣價格自2015年底開始上漲，因為多場大雨及隨后下的雪對中國2016年收獲季的大蒜收成產生了破壞性影響。分析師認為，大蒜價格躍升至創(chuàng)紀錄水平吸引來了投機性買盤，對上漲行情起到了推波助瀾的作用。

Garlic is predominantly grown in Shandong, an eastern province in China. Expectations of poor harvests have previously led to hoarding by locals, but money from Beijing and other large cities is now flowing into the market, according to Cui Xiaona, analyst at Sublime China Information Group, a commodity information service.

大蒜的主要種植區(qū)域是華東的山東省。卓創(chuàng)資訊(Sublime China Information Group)分析師崔曉娜稱，起初，是對收成不佳的預期導致了當地人囤積大蒜，但現在，來自北京及其他大城市的資金正流入大蒜市場。卓創(chuàng)是一家大宗商品資訊服務機構。

“This year many people knew that the garlic harvest was poor, so they thought, ‘well, I make money out of the price difference’. So many rushed to stock up on garlic,” she said.

她表示：“今年，許多人都知道大蒜收成不好，于是他們就想：‘我可以從價差中賺錢’。就這樣，許多人爭相囤積大蒜。”

Efforts by Chinese authorities to stabilise the country’s stock market by imposing curbs on equities trading last year has resulted money flowing instead into a wide range of commodities.

去年，中國當局曾展開多次努力，試圖通過限制股票交易來穩(wěn)定中國股市。此舉導致資金轉而流入一系列大宗商品市場。

Garlic growers and merchants are no strangers to a rollercoaster ride. In 2009 and 2010, prices soared after speculators bought up bulbs following smaller planted acreage and a belief garlic would ward off swine flu. Prices are now higher than those seen between 2009 and 2010, according to Mintec, the commodities data firm.

中國的蒜農和蒜商對這種“過山車”行情并不陌生。2009年和2010年，受種植面積縮減和所謂大蒜可預防豬流感的觀點影響，投機者大舉買入大蒜，導致蒜價飆升。大宗商品數據公司Mintec的數據顯示，目前的蒜價比2009年至2010年間的水平還要高。

Garlic has not been the only niche market targeted by China’s speculators. Mung beans, pickled walnuts and fermented black tea have at some point all fallen to the vagaries of “hot money”.

大蒜并不是中國投機者瞄準的唯一一個利基市場。綠豆、紅茶都曾被變幻無常的“熱錢”左右。

The lack of supply and high prices have led to a decline in Chinese exports, which are at a four-year low. In the first seven months of this year, fresh garlic exports fell 12 per cent to 895,000 tonnes.

供應短缺和高昂的價格已導致中國大蒜出口下滑。目前，中國的大蒜出口正處于四年低點。今年頭七個月，鮮蒜出口下滑了12%，至89.5萬噸。

The situation is even more acute in dried garlic, which is easier to store than fresh bulbs. Stricter environmental regulation has also meant that many processing factories have been taken out of commission, further reducing dried garlic supplies, according to Vinayak Narain, senior vice-president at agricultural trader Olam’s spices and vegetable ingredients business.

比鮮蒜更易儲存的干蒜面臨的形勢更加嚴峻。農業(yè)交易商奧蘭(Olam)的香料及蔬菜配料業(yè)務高級副總裁維納亞克•納拉因(Vinayak Narain)稱，更加嚴格的環(huán)保監(jiān)管意味著，許多加工廠已被迫退出生產，干蒜的供應將進一步減少。

China accounts for almost 90 per cent of the world’s dried garlic exports that are mainly used in food manufacturing. The Chinese supply shortage has coincided with a shortfall in the crop in the US, another leading supplier.

中國干蒜出口占全球的近90%。干蒜主要用于食品加工。中國供應短缺的同時，另一主要供應國美國的供應也出現了短缺。

Traders expect prices to remain firm in the near term.

交易商預計，蒜價在近期內會保持堅挺。

“If the next harvest is normal you are going to see this rollercoaster come down by the end the second quarter next year, said Mr Narain.

納拉因表示：“如果下一次收獲產量正常，你會看到這列過山車在明年第二季度末前回落。”