西方應該如何遏制俄羅斯？

Relations between the US and Russia have reached their lowest point in 30 years. Not since Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev began the effort to end the cold war have relations between the two been this bad.

美國與俄羅斯的關系已跌落至30年來最低點。自從羅納德•里根(Ronald Reagan)和米哈伊爾•戈爾巴喬夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)啟動結束冷戰(zhàn)的努力以來，兩國關系從未像現(xiàn)在這么糟糕過。

On October 7, the US intelligence chief General James Clapper announced that the Kremlin’s “senior-most officials” had authorised hacks into the emails of US individuals and institutions to interfere in the election process. This followed a decision by John Kerry, secretary of state, to end a bilateral effort to negotiate an end to the brutal fighting in Syria and his accusation that Russian military actions in Aleppo amounted to war crimes.

10月7日，美國國家情報總監(jiān)(DNI)詹姆斯•克拉珀(James Clapper)宣布，克里姆林宮的“最高級官員”授權黑客入侵美國個人和機構的電郵，以干擾美國的大選進程。此前，美國國務卿約翰•克里(John Kerry)決定叫停旨在結束敘利亞血腥戰(zhàn)斗的雙邊努力，并指責俄羅斯在阿勒頗的軍事行動構成戰(zhàn)爭犯罪。

In turn, President Vladimir Putin ended participation in an agreement with the US to dispose of weapons-grade plutonium. And then Moscow shipped nuclear-capable missile systems to Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Poland and the Baltic states, posing an immediate threat to America’s most exposed Nato allies.

對此，俄羅斯總統(tǒng)弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)退出了與美國的武器級钚處理協(xié)議。接著，莫斯科方面將能夠搭載核彈頭的導彈系統(tǒng)運至夾在波蘭與波羅的海國家之間的加里寧格勒(Kaliningrad)，對處在最大風險位置的美國在北約的盟友構成直接威脅。

This shows how badly relations have deteriorated since the illegal annexation of Crimea and invasion of Ukraine in early 2014. So far, neither Washington nor its European allies have produced a coherent response to Russia’s increasingly dangerous behaviour.

這表明，自2014年初俄羅斯非法吞并克里米亞并入侵烏克蘭以來，美俄關系已惡化到非常嚴重的程度。迄今為止，美國及其歐洲盟友都沒有對俄羅斯日益危險的行為做出一致回應。

Nato has taken some steps to bolster the defence of its allies in the east, and European members have begun to reverse the decade-long slide in defence spending and capabilities. The US and Canada joined the EU in imposing sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and the downing of a Malaysian airliner in July 2014.

北約已采取一些措施加強對其東翼盟友的防御，歐盟成員國已開始逆轉國防開支和軍事實力長達10年的滑坡。在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以及馬來西亞一架民航客機在2014年7月被擊落以后，美國和加拿大加入歐盟的行列，一起對俄羅斯實施了制裁。

But none of this adds up to a coherent strategy. Too many, in Europe especially, believe that political and economic engagement, coupled with military forbearance, will eventually bring Moscow around to a more constructive attitude. While the attempt to integrate Russia into the western system was a worthwhile experiment, it failed. Integration is Mr Putin’s greatest fear, because it would undermine his control of the Russian system. Like his Soviet predecessors, he needs the antagonism of the west to protect his standing at home.

但所有這些都算不上一致的戰(zhàn)略。太多人(特別是在歐洲)認為，政治和經(jīng)濟上的接觸，加上軍事上的克制，最終將讓俄羅斯拿出更建設性的態(tài)度。讓俄羅斯加入西方體系的嘗試是有意義的，但失敗了。融合是普京最擔心的，因為這將削弱他對俄羅斯體制的控制。與他在蘇聯(lián)時代的前任一樣，他需要西方的敵對來保護自己在國內(nèi)的地位。

What, then, would be an effective response to Russia’s behaviour? The answer is a strategy of containment.

那么，什么才是針對俄羅斯行為的有效回應呢?答案是遏制戰(zhàn)略。

In 1946, the American diplomat George Kennan argued that containment was the necessary response to a Soviet system that was driving towards external expansion because of internal weaknesses. Bringing Moscow into the family of nations, as Franklin Roosevelt had attempted to do, was bound to fail. Outside pressure would lead to the internal change necessary to modify external Soviet behaviour, Kennan said.

1946年，美國外交家喬治•凱南(George Kennan)主張，遏制是對蘇聯(lián)體制的必要回應，當時蘇聯(lián)正因國內(nèi)虛弱轉向對外擴張。像富蘭克林•羅斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)那樣試圖把俄羅斯納入國際大家庭的努力注定要失敗。凱南表示，外部壓力將促成改變蘇聯(lián)對外行為所必需的國內(nèi)改革。

During the cold war, the big question for the US and its allies was whether to oppose expansion whenever and wherever it occurred, or to isolate Moscow diplomatically and economically while bolstering the protection of American interests in Europe and Asia.

在冷戰(zhàn)時期，美國及其盟友面臨的一個重大問題是，應該在擴張發(fā)生的任何時間和任何地方作出反制，還是在外交和經(jīng)濟上孤立俄羅斯、同時增強對美國在歐洲和亞洲利益的保護?

The debate is much the same today. Some maintain that we need to oppose Russia everywhere it manifests its power — in Ukraine, in Syria and in cyber space. Others that we need to strengthen Nato and exploit Russia’s deteriorating economy and lack of ideological appeal abroad.

如今的辯論大致相同。一些人堅稱，我們需要在俄羅斯炫耀實力的所有地方(烏克蘭、敘利亞和網(wǎng)絡空間)跟俄羅斯作對。還有一些人聲稱，我們需要加強北約的實力，同時利用俄羅斯的弱點，包括經(jīng)濟日益惡化和在國外缺乏意識形態(tài)影響力。

Now, as then, containment must be a long-term strategy, best sustained by emphasising western strengths and Russian weaknesses. The core of our strength is western unity. That is why President Barack Obama and other Nato leaders were right to respond to the invasion of Ukraine by boosting the alliance’s defences. Russia’s greatest vulnerability is its economy, dependent as it is on resource extraction; a strong regime of sanctions will hurt Moscow.

如今，與過去一樣，遏制必須是一項長期戰(zhàn)略，強調西方優(yōu)勢和俄羅斯劣勢將最有利于維持這一戰(zhàn)略。我們的力量核心是西方陣營的團結。正因如此，美國總統(tǒng)巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)和其他北約領導人通過增強同盟防御來回應俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的做法是正確的。俄羅斯的最大脆弱性在于國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟依賴資源開采;強大的制裁機制將觸到莫斯科方面的痛處。

We need to recognise Russia is an insecure power driven by internal weakness. Containment took 40 years to bring about a change in Soviet behaviour and ultimately the collapse of the USSR. Russia is far weaker now than the Soviet Union was then, but it will still take years to change the way it behaves. Like then, containment requires patience and firmness to succeed.

我們需要認識到，俄羅斯是一個缺乏安全感的大國，其推動力是內(nèi)部虛弱。遏制戰(zhàn)略用了40年時間讓蘇聯(lián)的行為發(fā)生改變，最終導致蘇聯(lián)解體?，F(xiàn)在的俄羅斯比當年的蘇聯(lián)虛弱得多，但仍需堅持多年才能改變其行為方式。與那時一樣，遏制戰(zhàn)略需要耐心和堅定才能成功。