焦煤價格飆升背后的中國因素

The ability of policymakers in Beijing to roil global commodity markets has been underlined by a breathtaking rally in a key steelmaking ingredient that has caught consumers cold, but promises a profit windfall for the struggling mining industry.

一種關鍵煉鋼材料的大漲價突顯出北京政策制定者攪動全球大宗商品市場的能力——這種上漲讓消費者感到不適，但有望給陷入困境的采礦業(yè)帶來意外利潤。

The price of premium hard coking coal has more than doubled in the past six weeks to more than $200 a tonne as supplies have dwindled and buyers have scrambled to find cargoes in the spot market.

隨著供應縮減以及買家競相尋找現貨市場貨源，優(yōu)質硬焦煤的價格在6周期間(截至上周)上漲了兩倍多，至每噸逾200美元。

Behind the surge — or “met coal mania” as it has been dubbed by one bank — are production curbs in China where the government is restricting the number of working days at domestic coal mines to 276 a year, down from 330.

價格飆升(或者被一家銀行稱作的“焦煤熱”)的背后是中國的限產政策——中國政府將國內煤礦每年的工作日天數從330天降至276天。

This policy is mainly aimed at improving the profitability of its bloated and heavily indebted coal industry so it can repay loans to domestic banks. But it has also reduced output and tightened the global coking coal market. Its impact has been magnified by a string of disruptions in Australia, a leading supplier to the seaborne or export market.

該政策主要目的是提高臃腫而負債累累的煤炭行業(yè)的盈利能力，從而讓它們能夠償還國內銀行的貸款。但它也降低了產量，減少了全球焦煤市場的供應。澳大利亞一系列的生產中斷放大了該政策的影響——澳大利亞是焦煤海運或出口市場的主要供應國。

If the price rise is sustained it could add billions of dollars to the bottom lines of the industry’s biggest producers, which include Anglo American, BHP Billiton, South 32 and Canada’s Teck. Coking coal is an important raw material used in blast furnace steel production.

如果價格持續(xù)上漲，就可能讓該行業(yè)最大的生產商增加數十億美元的利潤。它們包括英美資源集團(Anglo American)、必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、South 32和加拿大的泰克(Teck)。焦煤是高爐鋼生產中使用的重要原材料。

“It’s been a perfect storm on the supply side,” said Christopher LaFemina, analyst at Jefferies.

杰富瑞(Jefferies)的分析師克里斯托弗•拉菲米納(Christopher LaFemina)表示：“這是供應方面的完美風暴。”

Caught between an oversupplied Chinese market and faltering demand for steel, 2016 was supposed to bring more pain for the coking coal industry. But things have not worked out that way.

受中國市場供應過剩以及鋼鐵需求低迷的困擾，焦煤行業(yè)在2016年本應更加艱難。但情況并非如此。

Instead of adding to last year’s 30 per cent drop, coking coal has staged a dramatic recovery, rising 164 per cent which has made it the best performing commodity of 2016.

焦煤價格沒有繼續(xù)去年下跌30%的勢頭，而是步入明顯回升階段，上漲了164%，這讓它成為2016年表現最佳的大宗商品。

“In bulk and base commodities if you get Chinese policy right you are a long way towards getting the market right,” said Colin Hamilton, head of commodities research at Macquarie.

麥格理(Macquarie)大宗商品研究主管科林•漢密爾頓(Colin Hamilton)表示：“在大宗商品領域，如果你光是弄明白中國政策，你離弄明白市場還遠著呢。”

China sprang its first surprise this year when policymakers, alarmed by slowing economic growth and capital flight, injected a huge amount of cash into the banking system. This boosted construction activity and demand for steelmaking materials such as iron ore and coking coal.

中國政策制定者對經濟增長放緩和資本外流感到不安，向銀行業(yè)體系注入了大量資金，這是中國今年首次的意外之舉。它拉動了建筑活動，推高了鐵礦石和焦煤等煉鋼原材料的需求。

The credit surge was followed by the 276-day policy, which first lifted the price of thermal coal, used to generate electricity in power stations.

信貸飆升之后是276個生產日政策，這首先提高了用于電廠發(fā)電的熱能煤的價格。

Coking coal did not start its vertiginous ascent until July when heavy rain and flooding reduced supply from Shanxi province. This forced Chinese buyers into the seaborne market, which was then hit by a number of unexpected outages at mines in Australia that further crimped supplies.

焦煤價格直到7月暴雨和洪水導致山西省供應下降后才開始了令人目眩的上漲。這迫使中國買家進入海運市場，當時澳大利亞煤礦發(fā)生了一系列意外生產中斷事故，進一步減少了供應。

While about 300m tonnes of seaborne coking coal is produced each year most of it is traded on a contractual basis and priced off the spot market or monthly or quarterly averages. The amount of material readily available to buy — even when the market is not grappling with supply side issues, is very small — fewer than 10m tonnes according to Mr Hamilton.

盡管每年的海運焦煤產量大約有3億噸，但這些焦煤大多按合同價交易，價格低于現貨市場或者月度和季度平均價格。漢密爾頓表示，即便市場沒有供應問題的困擾，現成可買的焦煤數量也非常少，不足1000萬噸。

“We have basically gone from $100 to $200 a tonne on the back of a few deals,” he said of the recent rally.

他在談到最近的上漲時說：“在一些協(xié)議的支持下，我們基本上從每噸100美元漲到了每噸200美元。”

According to Ernie Thrasher, chief executive of US coking coal producer Xcoal, most of the recent buying in the spot market has come from steel mills in Europe and India. “They realised they needed coal but the market had started to run away from them,” he said. “Buyers tend to be much more reactive when the price goes against them.”

美國焦煤生產商Xcoal首席執(zhí)行官厄尼•思拉舍(Ernie Thrasher)表示，最近現貨市場上的買盤大多來自歐洲和印度的鋼廠。他說：“他們意識到他們需要煤炭，但市場開始遠離他們。當價格對他們不利的時候，買家往往積極得多。”

Industry watchers do not think the price surge can continue for much longer. Knowing that contract prices will rise in the fourth quarter — possibly to $170 a tonne — steel mills will have been buying as much as they can under existing arrangements. Many of these contracts have options to buy an extra 10 per cent of agreed volumes, say traders.

行業(yè)觀察家們認為這種價格飆升不會持續(xù)太長時間。鋼廠知道，合同價將在第四季度上升(可能到每噸170美元)，因此將在現有協(xié)議下盡可能地購買焦煤。交易員們表示，許多合同帶有可額外購買約定總量的10%的選項。

Tom Price, analyst at Morgan Stanley, said that road conditions in Shanxi had started to improve while China’s National Development and Reform Commission has requested a short-term lift in coal supply primarily to cap thermal coal prices.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析師湯姆•普萊斯(Tom Price)表示，山西路況開始改善，同時中國發(fā)改委(NDRC)要求短期增加煤炭供應，這主要是為了限制熱能煤價格。

Prices above $200 a tonne will also trigger a supply response, particularly from producers in North America.

每噸200美元以上的價格將引起供應方面的回應，尤其是北美供應商的回應。

Mr Thrasher said Xcoal would increase its exports and expected others to follow although they might take a bit longer — between three and six months.This is because many US mines were mothballed in 2015 while others were placed under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

思拉舍表示，Xcoal將會增加出口，并預計其他生產商將會效仿，盡管它們花的時間可能更長些，估計在3到6個月之間。這是因為許多美國礦場在2015年停產，同時其他礦場處于第11章破產保護的狀態(tài)。

“What you will see at this price level is that anyone who can produce will produce,” he said.

他說：“你在這個價格水平上將會看到的是，所有能生產的都將生產。”

However, few people expect prices to fall sharply unless Beijing performs a policy U-turn, something that seems unlikely in the near term.

然而，沒多少人預計價格將會大幅下降，除非北京方面的政策發(fā)生一百八十度大轉彎，這在近期似乎不太可能。

“We expect supply increases to put some downward pressure on the coking coal prices in the very near future,” said Mr LaFemina. “But we do not expect a collapse to the levels of earlier this year as the government clearly wants to avoid financial stress in the domestic coal industry.”

拉菲米納表示：“我們預計供應增加將會在近期內對焦煤價格產生一些下行壓力。但我們預計不會下跌至今年早些時候的水平，因為中國政府顯然希望避免本國煤炭行業(yè)出現財務緊張局面。”