三星召回事件為蘋果“獻(xiàn)大禮”

By Apple’s own high standards, the hype surrounding Wednesday’s iPhone launch was looking more subdued than usual.

按照蘋果(Apple)自身的高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，圍繞周三iPhone發(fā)布會的輿論熱度似乎比以往要低。

The company had just been hit by a €13bn tax bill by the European Commission. On top of that setback, for the first time since the device made its debut in 2007, sales of the iPhone are in decline. Supply-chain leaks point to a less radical redesign of the current model than Apple customers have come to expect every two years.

這家公司剛遭受歐盟委員會(European Commission) 130億歐元稅務(wù)罰單打擊。除了這一挫折，iPhone銷量自2007年問世以來首次滑坡。供應(yīng)鏈流出的消息顯示iPhone新機(jī)型在設(shè)計上沒有太多重大改變，不及蘋果客戶每隔兩年的期待。

Then on Friday Samsung handed its arch-rival an unexpected gift: one of the most costly product recalls the tech industry has ever seen.

而上周五，韓國電子制造商三星(Samsung)給自己的主要競爭對手送上一份意外大禮——高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)有史以來最昂貴的產(chǎn)品召回之一。

Samsung is replacing all 2.5m units that it has shipped of its Galaxy Note 7 smartphone just weeks after its release, due to a spate of exploding batteries. Just when the Korean electronics manufacturer was regaining momentum in the sluggish smartphone market, the sweeping recall resets Samsung’s attempt to head off Apple’s annual launch.

由于接連發(fā)生電池爆炸事件，三星將前幾周前剛發(fā)貨的250萬部Galaxy Note 7智能手機(jī)悉數(shù)召回。三星剛剛在低迷的智能手機(jī)市場重獲動力，此番大規(guī)模召回讓它搶在蘋果年度發(fā)布會前頭發(fā)布新品的努力回到原點。

“The timing is as bad for Samsung as it is positive for Apple,” said Geoff Blaber, analyst at CCS Insight. “If consumers are facing a lengthy wait, it undoubtedly opens the door for its closest rival.”

CCS Insight的分析師杰夫•布拉波(Geoff Blaber)表示：“這一時機(jī)對三星起到的負(fù)面作用，與對蘋果的正面作用相當(dāng)。如果消費(fèi)者要面臨漫長的等待，無疑會為最接近的競爭者帶來機(jī)會。”

Samsung has said it will take just two weeks to manufacture replacement phones for customers, which could leave just enough time for Apple to bring its new iPhones to market first. In the meantime, some mobile operators, including T-Mobile in the US, have said they will offer full refunds to Note buyers, leaving many with spare cash to spend on an iPhone if they feel they can no longer trust Samsung.

三星表示只用兩周就會為客戶制造出替換手機(jī)，這使得蘋果可以恰好先一步向市場推出新iPhone。此外，包括美國T-Mobile在內(nèi)的部分移動運(yùn)營商表示將向購買了三星Note 7的消費(fèi)者提供全額退款，這讓許多消費(fèi)者有閑錢購買iPhone——如果他們覺得無法再信任三星的話。

“The pressure is definitely on Samsung. It’s a huge amount of inventory that it needs to rebuild,” Mr Blaber said.

布拉波表示：“三星無疑承受著壓力。它需要重建龐大的庫存量。”

Until this incident, Samsung had been winning plaudits for its bold moves with the Galaxy S7 and latest Note 7 handsets. After its smartphones had struggled against soaring sales of the iPhone 6 in 2014 and 2015, Samsung has regained market share in 2016 thanks to its S7 Edge’s curved screen and strong battery performance, two areas where Apple is seen as lagging behind its rival. Following its mid-August debut, Samsung had sold 1m Notes before the recall.

在此事件之前，三星以圍繞Galaxy S7和最新發(fā)布的Note 7手機(jī)的大膽舉措贏得喝彩。2014年到2015年iPhone 6銷量飆升，三星智能手機(jī)陷入困境。隨后在2016年，三星憑借S7 Edge的曲面屏和強(qiáng)大的電池表現(xiàn)——外界認(rèn)為蘋果在這兩個領(lǐng)域落后其競爭對手——重奪市場份額。自8月中旬上市到此次召回前，三星Note 7已賣出1百萬部。

“There’s no doubt in my mind that the timing of the Note launch was intended to pre-empt Apple’s announcement,” said Jan Dawson, tech analyst at Jackdaw Research. “Arguably, it worked well for Samsung at first — the Note 7 has been one of Samsung’s best-reviewed phones ever and it seems to have got off to a great start sales-wise as well.”

Jackdaw Research科技業(yè)分析師簡•道森(Jan Dawson)表示：“我認(rèn)為Note的發(fā)布時機(jī)毫無疑問是為了搶在蘋果新品發(fā)布前頭?？梢哉f，這一策略一開始對三星效果很好，Note 7是三星有史以來評價最高的手機(jī)之一，而且銷量情況似乎也開了個好頭。”

Mr Dawson praised Samsung for its swift reaction to the exploding battery problem. Nonetheless, at the exact moment when the iPhone 7 arrives, it will be impossible to buy Samsung’s latest product.

道森稱贊了三星對電池爆炸問題作出的迅速反應(yīng)。但是恰恰在iPhone 7上市的那個時候，消費(fèi)者將不可能買到三星的最新產(chǎn)品。

“That’s a significant black eye for Samsung, which will not only have to cover the cost of the recall but also lose several critical weeks of sales as well,” Mr Dawson said. “That could mean losing hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of sales and customers to its arch-rival.”

道森說：“這對三星來說是一個重大恥辱，它不僅要承擔(dān)召回成本，還失去了關(guān)鍵當(dāng)口的數(shù)周銷量。這可能意味著數(shù)十萬、甚至可能數(shù)百萬的銷量和消費(fèi)者流失到其主要競爭對手那里。”

Even without product malfunctions, eking out growth in the smartphone market is tough enough at the moment. Analysts at IDC last week projected just a 1.6 per cent rise in global unit sales this year, down from 2015’s 10.4 per cent increase.

即使不出現(xiàn)產(chǎn)品故障，要在當(dāng)前智能手機(jī)市場維持增長已經(jīng)十分艱難。IDC分析師上周預(yù)計，今年全球智能手機(jī)銷量將僅增長1.6%，2015年該數(shù)字為10.4%。

Despite the iPhone 7’s anticipated new dual-lens camera and wireless headphones, Wall Street analysts had forecast that is the product’s current quarterly sales declines were unlikely to be reversed until next year.

盡管iPhone 7新的雙鏡頭和無線耳機(jī)受到期待，但華爾街分析師預(yù)測在明年之前，iPhone當(dāng)前的季度銷售下降趨勢不大可能逆轉(zhuǎn)。

“The dynamics in Apple’s largest user bases, being China and the US, have fundamentally changed,” said Ben Bajarin, tech analyst at Creative Strategies. “Apple is not really losing customers; people are just hanging on to their phones for longer.”

Creative Strategies分析師本•巴加林(Ben Bajarin)表示：“蘋果最大的用戶群在中國和美國，這些用戶的動態(tài)已經(jīng)有了根本變化。蘋果并沒有真的流失客戶，人們不過是降低了更換手機(jī)的頻率。”

Wall Street consensus forecasts are for iPhone unit sales to fall at least 8 per cent in the current quarter ending in September, which is likely to include at least a week of new product availability, to around about 44m units.

華爾街共識性的預(yù)測是，在截至9月底的當(dāng)前季度(包括蘋果新品上市后的至少一周)，iPhone銷量至少會降低8%，降至大約4400萬部。

Sales in the all-important December quarter are expected to be at best flat, at about 74m compared with 74.8m a year earlier, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

FactSet的調(diào)查顯示，在包含至關(guān)重要的12月的那個季度，銷量充其量有望與去年同期持平，達(dá)到大約7400萬部，去年同期的這個數(shù)字是7480萬部。

Fuelling the near-term iPhone pessimism is the sense that the really big upgrades for the iPhone are coming in 2017, when the product celebrates its tenth anniversary — including a Note 7-style curved screen.

就近期而言，令人們對iPhone悲觀的是這一判斷：在2017年，iPhone慶祝問世十周年時，iPhone將迎來真正重大的升級，其中包括采用三星Galaxy Note 7那種曲面屏。

“This year, we are not hearing any killer applications,” said Abhey Lamba of Mizuho Securities. “It’s hard to have a good gauge of demand right now.”

“今年，我們沒聽說有任何令人難以抗拒的新特性。”瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)的阿巴伊•蘭巴(Abhey Lamba)說，“目前很難對需求做出準(zhǔn)確的判斷。”

However, Samsung’s mis-step could make the difference between growth and decline for the iPhone in the coming months. Mr Blaber said the recall “could move the needle for Apple very slightly”, albeit “at most a couple of million” units.

然而，未來幾個月里，三星的失誤可能對iPhone是會增長還是會萎縮產(chǎn)生影響。布拉波表示，三星召回事件“可能會讓蘋果的銷量稍微增加一點點”，盡管“充其量會增加200萬”部。

“Apple’s iPhone Plus is the natural alternative to the Note 7 in that price tier,” Mr Blaber said. “It is beholden on Apple that they can really get as much stock [on to the market] as fast as they can.

“蘋果的iPhone Plus是同一價位上Galaxy Note 7的天然替代品。”布拉波說，“蘋果必須確保自己能真正盡快(向市場)供應(yīng)盡可能多的貨。”

“Assuming they can do that, they stand to do very well out of Samsung’s misfortune.”

“假設(shè)蘋果能做到這一點，他們肯定將從三星的不幸遭遇中獲益極多。”