中國的消費(fèi)熱點(diǎn)在哪里？

As anyone who reads these pages knows, China’s growth has slowed and its economy is, little by little, rebalancing away from investment and towards consumption. Yet many are also left scratching their heads by news that sales of a wide range of consumer products, from luxury cars to cheap local beer, are so sluggish. If consumption is so strong, why can’t we see it? The answer is simple: people are looking in the wrong places. Both high-end and low-end retail are faring poorly. But look at the middle tier, and the story could scarcely be more different. This is where the consumption boom is unfolding.

看過相關(guān)報道的人都知道，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩，并且正在緩慢地進(jìn)行再平衡——從依靠投資轉(zhuǎn)向依靠消費(fèi)拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。然而許多人也對種類繁多的消費(fèi)品銷售疲弱——從豪車到國產(chǎn)廉價啤酒——的新聞摸不著頭腦。如果消費(fèi)非常強(qiáng)勁，我們?yōu)楹慰床坏?答案很簡單：人們找錯了地方。高、低端零售都表現(xiàn)不佳。但看看中端銷售，故事可能截然不同。這正是消費(fèi)熱潮正在上演的地方。

Start with the luxury segment. Its best days could well be over. Luxury consumption is slowing, weighed down by a decelerating economy, the ongoing crackdown on corruption and the ‘commodification’ of luxury goods — that is, the idea that Chinese buyers no longer see them as so special or unique. China’s luxury spending contracted for the very first time in 2014. This was just the tipping point. In 2015, Swiss watch exports to Hong Kong, a bellwether of Chinese luxury buying, fell 23 per cent. The sales of Rolls-Royce cars tumbled 54 per cent in China that same year.

先從奢侈品領(lǐng)域說起。奢侈品的黃金時期很可能已經(jīng)結(jié)束。受經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩、反腐運(yùn)動持續(xù)開展和奢侈品“大眾商品化”的影響，奢侈品消費(fèi)正在放緩——奢侈品“大眾商品化”是指中國買家不再認(rèn)為奢侈品非常特殊或獨(dú)特。中國奢侈品支出在2014年首次出現(xiàn)萎縮。這只是拐點(diǎn)。2015年，瑞士手表對香港出口——中國人購買奢侈品情況的晴雨表——下降23%。同一年，勞斯萊斯汽車在華銷售暴跌54%。

And it was not just hard for foreign brands. China is unlikely to be able to produce successful local luxury brands in the foreseeable future. Chinese consumers themselves simply do not associate made-in-China with luxury. This inertia of perception was foretold by the US experience. Despite being the world’s most powerful economy, the US has largely failed to produce top luxury brands such as Hermes or Cartier in Europe. Instead, it is affordable luxury brands such as Coach and Tiffany’s that have gained traction in the US.

不只是外國品牌處境艱難。在可預(yù)見的未來，中國不太可能創(chuàng)造出成功的本土奢侈品品牌。中國消費(fèi)者自己不會將“中國制造”與奢侈品聯(lián)系在一起。美國的經(jīng)歷揭示了這種思維慣性。盡管是全球?qū)嵙ψ顝?qiáng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，但美國基本上沒有創(chuàng)造出像歐洲愛馬仕(Hermes)或卡地亞(Cartier)那樣的頂級奢侈品牌。實際上，蔻馳(Coach)和蒂芙尼(Tiffany)等讓普通人負(fù)擔(dān)得起的奢侈品品牌在美國很受歡迎。

At the low end of the market, the drivers are different but the outlook is equally bleak. The race-to-the-bottom approach of cheap Chinese brands, a winning formula in the past, has run its course. Rising income levels have led consumers to focus more on questions of quality and health, for which they are now able and willing to pay. As a result, fast-moving consumer goods companies targeting blue-collar consumers are losing out. Sales volumes of instant noodles and beer (which is often cheaper than mineral water in China) fell 12.5 per cent and 3.6 per cent last year, respectively. The ecommerce space is also experiencing a tectonic shift, from consumer-to-consumer platforms for cheap unbranded goods to business-to-consumer alternatives for branded quality products. Transaction volumes on the latter rose from 25 per cent of the total ecommerce market in 2011 to 51 per cent in 2015.

在低端市場，誘因有所不同，但前景同樣黯淡。中國廉價品牌過去屢試不爽的“競相降價”策略已經(jīng)不靈了。收入水平不斷增長促使消費(fèi)者更加注重品質(zhì)和健康，他們現(xiàn)在有能力而且也愿意為此付費(fèi)。面向藍(lán)領(lǐng)消費(fèi)者的快速消費(fèi)品公司因此經(jīng)營慘淡。去年方便面和啤酒銷量分別下降12.5%和3.6%——啤酒在中國往往比礦泉水還便宜。電子商務(wù)領(lǐng)域也在經(jīng)歷“結(jié)構(gòu)性”變化，人們從在消費(fèi)者對消費(fèi)者(C2C)平臺購買廉價的無品牌商品，轉(zhuǎn)向在企業(yè)對消費(fèi)者(B2C)平臺購買優(yōu)質(zhì)品牌產(chǎn)品。后者交易額占整個電商市場的份額從2011年的25%，升至2015年的51%。

Amid all this upheaval at the high and low end of the market, the sweet spot is right in the middle. This value-for-money segment, which strives to balance quality and price, is already the fastest-growing consumer segment in China. As China’s middle class expands (McKinsey predicts it will increase from 174m households in 2012 to 271m by 2022), this middle retail segment will grow in lockstep with it.

在高低端市場的這種風(fēng)云變幻當(dāng)中，中檔產(chǎn)品市場如魚得水。此類努力在質(zhì)量和價格之間取得平衡、讓人們感覺物有所值的商品已經(jīng)成為中國增長最為快速的消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域。隨著中國中產(chǎn)階級數(shù)量擴(kuò)大——麥肯錫(McKinsey)預(yù)計到2022年，中國中產(chǎn)階級數(shù)量將從2012年的1.74億家庭增長至2.71億家庭——這種中檔零售部門將同步增長。

Consider a few examples of the consumer brands already profiting handsomely from this trend. Korean cosmetics brands with their “cheap chic”, offering design and marketing similar to European high-end brands but with affordable prices and more of an Asian style, are immensely popular in China, particularly among the younger generation. The front runner is Amorepacific, which owns brands including Innisfree, Laneige and Etude. It has quadrupled its stock price since 2014 on the back of strong China sales. Global fast fashion houses are also having a big run. Uniqlo, the Japanese clothing company, delivered a gob-smacking 62 per cent annualised sales growth in China from 2013 to 2015. Decathlon, a French sports supplies retailer, grew its store network in China from 55 in 2012 to 166 in 2015, capitalising on the value-for-money trend.

想想已經(jīng)顯著受益于這種趨勢的幾個消費(fèi)品牌吧。韓國化妝品品牌帶來了“廉價時尚”，它們采用與歐洲高端品牌類似的設(shè)計和營銷，但價格更為親民，而且更具亞洲風(fēng)格，從而在中國大受歡迎，尤其是在較年輕一代人當(dāng)中。領(lǐng)跑者是旗下?lián)碛袗傇婏L(fēng)吟(Innisfree)、蘭芝(Laneige)和伊蒂之屋(Etude)等品牌的愛茉莉太平洋(AmorePacific)。在中國市場銷售強(qiáng)勁的支持下，愛茉莉太平洋的股價自2014年以來上漲了3倍。全球快時尚公司也在高歌猛進(jìn)。從2013年至2015年，日本服裝公司優(yōu)衣庫(Uniqlo)在中國市場的年化銷售增長率達(dá)到令人咋舌的62%。法國體育用品零售商迪卡儂(Decathlon)利用這種注重性價比的消費(fèi)趨勢，將中國門店數(shù)量從2012年的55家增至2015年的166家。

China’s local brands are also charging ahead. Green Tea and Granma’s Home, both with their roots in the city of Hangzhou, operate chain restaurants across China and have tripled their locations in three years. They offer trendy casual dining experiences in central locations, coupled with seemingly unprofitable pricing for the dishes. Their secret is volume, attracting customers who are willing to come at off-peak hours or wait in line, sometimes for up to an hour. This translates into more sittings: they can achieve 6-8 table turns per day, roughly twice that of their peers.

中國國內(nèi)品牌也發(fā)展神速。總部均位于杭州的綠茶(Green Tea)和外婆家(Granma’s Home)在全國各地開設(shè)連鎖餐廳，門店數(shù)量在3年時間里增長了兩倍。它們在市中心地段提供時尚休閑的就餐體驗，以及似乎無利可圖的餐品價格。它們的秘訣在于規(guī)模，吸引愿意在非高峰時段或者排隊等候(有時長達(dá)一個小時)就餐的消費(fèi)者。這帶來了較高的入座率：兩家餐廳每天可以達(dá)到6至8次的翻臺率，幾乎是同行的兩倍。

Another successful case is Miniso, a high-quality dollar store chain that has been dubbed the “poor man’s Muji” (a premium Japanese equivalent). Their retail pricing is only twice their costs, compared with the industry norm of three-times. Coupled with a carefully curated product portfolio in a modern store format, it became an instant hit. Within two years of its inception, Miniso has opened more than 1,000 stores and made Rmb5bn ($750m) of annual sales.

另一個成功的例子是被稱為“窮人的無印良品”的高品質(zhì)低價連鎖店——名創(chuàng)優(yōu)品(Miniso)。該公司的零售定價只是成本的兩倍，而行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是3倍。再加上現(xiàn)代化店鋪模式里的精心設(shè)計的產(chǎn)品組合，名創(chuàng)優(yōu)品很快風(fēng)靡一時。在成立以來的兩年時間里，名創(chuàng)優(yōu)品開了1000多家門店，年收入達(dá)到50億元人民幣(合7.5億美元)。

Flashy Swiss watches are losing their grip on wealthy Chinese wrists. And ordinary Chinese are losing their taste for instant noodles. Consumption is instead converging on the middle, in terms of both product preference and customer base. This is a good thing for the economy, a reflection of a more balanced growth model and a more equal distribution of wealth. For consumer brands, both international and local, the challenge is to win the hearts of China’s rising middle class. They are educated and well informed, and they want to spend money on quality products, so long as the price is fair.

奢華的瑞士手表正逐漸失去對中國富人的強(qiáng)烈吸引力。中國普通民眾開始對方便面失去胃口。不管是從產(chǎn)品偏好還是從客戶基礎(chǔ)來說，消費(fèi)都在向中端(中檔產(chǎn)品、中產(chǎn)階層)集中。這對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)是好事，反映出增長模式更加平衡、財富分配更加平等。對國內(nèi)外的消費(fèi)品牌來說，挑戰(zhàn)在于如何贏得中國日益崛起的中產(chǎn)階級的心。他們受過良好教育而且見多識廣，他們希望購買優(yōu)質(zhì)產(chǎn)品，只要價格合理。

Tian Ai is a vice president at The Carlyle Group, advising Carlyle’s funds on growth capital investments in Asia. He is based in Beijing.

本文作者是凱雷投資集團(tuán)(The Carlyle Group)副總裁，就凱雷基金在亞洲進(jìn)行增長資本投資提供咨詢，常駐北京。