新興市場貨幣匯率反彈

Emerging market currencies are benefiting from a “Goldilocks” global economy to rebound to their highest levels against the US dollar in a year.

新興市場貨幣正受益于“金發(fā)姑娘般的”全球經(jīng)濟，兌美元匯率反彈至一年高點。

JPMorgan’s index of emerging market currencies has climbed 5.8 per cent so far in 2016, driven by the Brazilian real and South African rand, as developing economies reap the rewards of stable global growth, led by the US, without the imminent threat of rising interest rates.

受巴西雷亞爾和南非蘭特驅(qū)動，摩根大通(JPMorgan)的新興市場貨幣指數(shù)2016年以來已上漲5.8%。目前發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體正受益于由美國引領(lǐng)的全球穩(wěn)定增長，同時不存在迫在眉睫的加息威脅。

The UK’s decision to leave the EU and the Bank of England’s subsequent interest rate cut and asset buying have provided a further boost to emerging markets, increasing demand for riskier investments with higher returns as yields in developed markets fall to record lows.

英國決定離開歐盟以及英國央行(Bank of England)隨后的降息和資產(chǎn)購買，為新興市場提供了進一步提振，在發(fā)達市場的收益率降至創(chuàng)紀錄低點之際，增加了對風(fēng)險和回報都較高的投資的需求。

Credit analysts at Rabobank describe the gradual recovery of the US economy combined with external headwinds that have prevented the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates as a “Goldilocks scenario”, adding that in such an environment demand for risky assets was likely to continue to rise.

荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)把當(dāng)前局面形容為“金發(fā)女孩般的情景”：美國經(jīng)濟逐步復(fù)蘇，而外部不利因素阻止美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)提高利率。他們補充稱，在這樣的環(huán)境下，對高風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)的需求很可能會繼續(xù)上升。

South Africa’s rand has appreciated 14.8 per cent against the US dollar this year, helped by a rising gold price and greater risk appetite, while Brazil’s real has rallied to its highest level against the dollar for more than a year amid optimism that interim president Michel Temer can curb the country’s budget deficit.

南非蘭特今年對美元升值14.8%，得益于金價上漲和更大的風(fēng)險偏好，而巴西雷亞爾對美元升至一年多來最高水平，目前各方樂觀地認為，巴西臨時總統(tǒng)米歇爾•特梅爾(Michel Temer)能夠遏制該國的預(yù)算赤字。

The performance of emerging market currencies marks a reversal from last year, when the US dollar’s appreciation, falling oil prices and concerns about Chinese growth led international investors to recoil from riskier assets.

新興市場貨幣的表現(xiàn)標(biāo)志著逆轉(zhuǎn)去年的局面，當(dāng)時美元升值、油價下跌以及有關(guān)中國經(jīng)濟增長的擔(dān)憂導(dǎo)致國際投資者回避高風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)。

“Over the past five years, conditions for emerging markets have been tough,” said Dean Newman, head of emerging markets equity at Invesco Perpetual, although he added that factors such as favourable demographics, urbanisation and a growing middle class had remained favourable.

“過去5年里，新興市場的狀況一直很艱難，”景順基金(Invesco Perpetual)新興市場股票負責(zé)人迪恩•紐曼(Dean Newman)表示，盡管他補充說，各種有利因素，包括有利的人口結(jié)構(gòu)、城市化和不斷壯大的中產(chǎn)階級，一直存在。

Now, the environment was more benevolent, said Devan Kaloo, head of global emerging markets at Aberdeen Asset Management. Although the US has reported better than expected jobs data, policymakers have been keen to stress they are in no rush to raise interest rates. “Barring any shocks, ‘lower-for-longer’ US rates should help support EM,” he said.

安本資產(chǎn)管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management)新興市場股票主管德萬•卡盧(Devan Kaloo)表示，現(xiàn)在大環(huán)境變得更加友善。盡管美國報告了好于預(yù)期的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)，但政策制定者近來熱衷于強調(diào)他們并不急于升息。“只要不出現(xiàn)任何沖擊，‘在較低水平維持更久的’美國利率應(yīng)該有助于支撐新興市場，”他說。