退歐將永久損害英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)

A British exit from the EU would cause “permanentdamage” to the UK economy, cutting output by 6.2per cent and blowing a ￡36bn hole in the publicfinances, finance minister George Osborne claimedyesterday.

英國(guó)財(cái)政大臣喬治•奧斯本(George Osborne，見上圖)昨日宣稱，英國(guó)退出歐盟(EU)將給英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)“永久損害”，使經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出縮水6.2%，給公共財(cái)政帶來(lái)360億英鎊的缺口。

In the most significant day so far of the campaignfor the June 23 referendum on EU membership, MrOsborne sought to destroy the economic arguments for Brexit in a 200-page Treasury analysisof the impact of a Leave vote.

在為6月23日就決定是否留在歐盟的全民公投所進(jìn)行的宣傳活動(dòng)中，奧斯本在迄今最重大的一天試圖用財(cái)政部一份分析英國(guó)退歐投票結(jié)果影響的200頁(yè)報(bào)告粉碎退歐的經(jīng)濟(jì)論據(jù)。

With some polls showing the Remain and Leave camps running neck-and-neck, DavidCameron’s government hopes to shift votes with a relentless focus on the alleged threat togrowth and jobs of a British withdrawal.

鑒于一些民調(diào)結(jié)果顯示留歐陣營(yíng)和退歐陣營(yíng)勢(shì)均力敵，戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的政府希望通過(guò)緊緊聚焦于其聲稱的英國(guó)退歐對(duì)增長(zhǎng)和工作機(jī)會(huì)的威脅來(lái)拉票。

Mr Cameron is expected to receive further support for his campaign on Friday when BarackObama arrives in London; the US president is expected to back Britain staying in the EU.

卡梅倫的宣傳努力有望在巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)周五抵達(dá)倫敦后獲得進(jìn)一步的支持;預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)總統(tǒng)將支持英國(guó)留在歐盟。

The Treasury paper claimed that an exit would lead to falling trade and would put a ￡36bnannual dent in the public finances, equivalent to 8p on the basic rate of income tax.

英國(guó)財(cái)政部的文件宣稱，英國(guó)退歐將導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易額下降，將使公共財(cái)政收入每年減少360億英鎊，相當(dāng)于所得稅的基本稅率需要上調(diào)8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

Pro-Leave campaigners have accused the chancellor of scaremongering. But Mr Osborneinsisted the Treasury’s analysis of the costs and benefits of EU membership was “serious andsober and conclusive”.

退歐陣營(yíng)人士指責(zé)財(cái)相危言聳聽。但奧斯本堅(jiān)稱，財(cái)政部對(duì)歐盟成員國(guó)身份的代價(jià)和收益分析是“嚴(yán)肅、冷靜和確鑿的”。

In the central scenario of a bilateral trade deal with the EU, similar to that negotiated withCanada, the economy would be 6.2 per cent smaller after 15 years than if Britain stayed in theEU, equating to ￡4,300 per household.

按照文件預(yù)測(cè)的核心情景，若英國(guó)和歐盟達(dá)成類似歐盟和加拿大談判的雙邊貿(mào)易協(xié)定，15年后英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模將比留歐情況下縮小6.2%，相當(dāng)于每個(gè)家庭損失4300英鎊。

In a scenario where Britain falls back on its membership of the World Trade Organisation, thehit would be more severe with the economy up to 9.5 per cent smaller and households as muchas ￡6,600 poorer, the Treasury calculated.

根據(jù)英國(guó)財(cái)政部的計(jì)算，若英國(guó)只能依靠其世界貿(mào)易組織(WTO)成員國(guó)身份，其受到的沖擊將更為嚴(yán)重，經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的縮水幅度將高達(dá)9.5%，每個(gè)家庭將蒙受高達(dá)6600英鎊的損失。

The idea of Britain negotiating a deal for full access to the European single market while notbeing an EU member was “complete fantasy”, Mr Osborne said. But Eurosceptics pointed outthat if the economic consequences of a Brexit were so disastrous, it was odd that the primeminister should have put the choice to the British public

奧斯本表示，英國(guó)能夠在不作為歐盟成員國(guó)的情況下談判獲得歐洲單一市場(chǎng)完全準(zhǔn)入的想法是“徹頭徹尾的幻想”。但歐洲懷疑論者指出，如果英國(guó)退歐真的會(huì)帶來(lái)如此災(zāi)難性的后果，首相把這個(gè)選擇權(quán)交給英國(guó)公眾豈不是很奇怪嗎?

Michael Gove, a pro-Brexit minister, will say today the Remain campaign “treats people likemere children, capable of being frightened into obedience”.

支持英國(guó)退歐的大臣邁克爾•戈夫(Michael Gove)今天將會(huì)說(shuō)，留歐運(yùn)動(dòng)“把人民當(dāng)做會(huì)因?yàn)楹ε露牡暮⒆?rdquo;。