低價(jià)智能手機(jī)大行其道，蘋(píng)果能否穩(wěn)贏中國(guó)市場(chǎng)？

As China’s economy slows down, Apple could face problems of its own in the world’s secondlargest economy. Depending on which measures you believe, Chinese technology giant Xiaomirecently became the largest seller in the smartphone market, taking a market share of 13.7%during the last three months of 2014 compared to 12.3% for Apple during the same period,according to market intelligence firm IDC. While an alternate report by Canalys shows Appleas the top seller, another research firm, Kantar WorldPanel, also ranked Xiaomi as the marketleader.

隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)步伐放緩，，蘋(píng)果公司可能會(huì)在這個(gè)全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體面臨一些自己的問(wèn)題。市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)IDC的近期數(shù)據(jù)顯示，小米已成為中國(guó)智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)最大的出貨商，該公司2014年第四季度的國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)份額為13.7%，同期蘋(píng)果在中國(guó)的市場(chǎng)份額則為12.3%。不過(guò)，另一家調(diào)研公司Canalys的報(bào)告表明蘋(píng)果的智能手機(jī)銷(xiāo)量仍居行業(yè)之首。而另一家市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)Kantar WorldPanel則將小米列為市場(chǎng)龍頭。實(shí)際情況如何，就要看大家相信哪種衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)了。

Beyond these reports, Apple’s phones continue to be popular in China. The company sawexplosive growth during the last quarter, but Xiaomi’s ascendance could become a headachefor the iconic American brand, as it has for the biggest Android phone maker in the world,Samsung SRX . In 2014, Xiaomi’s market share in China jumped by 186% from the previousyear, while Samsung’s declined by 22% during the same period.

盡管這些報(bào)告結(jié)論不同，但蘋(píng)果手機(jī)在中國(guó)仍很受歡迎。上季度，該公司實(shí)現(xiàn)了爆炸式增長(zhǎng)。然而，小米的崛起已經(jīng)給全球最大的安卓手機(jī)制造商三星帶來(lái)了麻煩。作為美國(guó)的標(biāo)志性品牌，蘋(píng)果可能也會(huì)對(duì)此感到頭疼。2014年，小米在中國(guó)的市場(chǎng)份額同比增長(zhǎng)了186%，三星的份額卻下降了22%。

Xiaomi’s competitive advantage? Price.

小米的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)是什么呢?價(jià)格。

While the average price of an iPhone 6 rose to $687 at the end of last year, the average price ofAndroid phones fell to $254 – a significant gap. Xiaomi’s phones, which have a similar designaesthetic to Apple’s but runs on a modified version of the Android system, are even cheaper atan average price of $220 per phone.

到去年底，iPhone 6的平均售價(jià)已升至687美元，安卓手機(jī)的平均售價(jià)則降至254美元，二者差異巨大。小米手機(jī)采用了和蘋(píng)果類(lèi)似的設(shè)計(jì)美學(xué)，使用變種安卓系統(tǒng)，平均售價(jià)更低至220美元。

The fact that Chinese consumers have a significantly cheaper option could impact Apple sales ifChina’s economy remains sluggish and consumers become increasingly cost-conscious. In2014, China’s economy slowed to 7.4%, the lowest level in decades, and is expected to slowdown further in the next few years, according to the International Monetary Fund.

如果中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)依然乏力，消費(fèi)者對(duì)支出成本將日益敏感，他們可以選擇更便宜的替代品，這可能影響蘋(píng)果的銷(xiāo)售業(yè)績(jī)。2014年，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速降至7.4%，是幾十年來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織預(yù)計(jì)今后幾年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將進(jìn)一步放緩。

This is especially significant because China is one of Apple’s key markets. Even though thecompany did notsell more phones in China than in the U.S. in 2014, as analysts initiallyspeculated, its sales are reportedly on track to get there, partly due to its partnership withleading telecom provider China Mobile. In addition, the approximately 700 million smartphoneusers in China represent a vast market opportunity for Apple’s future growth.

這一點(diǎn)特別值得關(guān)注，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)是蘋(píng)果的主要市場(chǎng)之一。盡管如分析師當(dāng)初猜測(cè)的那樣，2014年iPhone在中國(guó)銷(xiāo)量并未超過(guò)美國(guó)，但據(jù)報(bào)道，蘋(píng)果與中國(guó)最大的電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商中國(guó)移動(dòng)達(dá)成合作后，銷(xiāo)量增勢(shì)迅猛。此外，中國(guó)約有7億智能手機(jī)用戶(hù)，對(duì)蘋(píng)果未來(lái)增長(zhǎng)意味著巨大的市場(chǎng)機(jī)遇。

It’s a safe bet that Apple will continue to see hefty profits from the region, but fast growingcompetition from Xiaomi and other Chinese smartphone makers like Huawei could slow thatprogress and represents a threat to be taken seriously; and not just because of the impact inChina either.

應(yīng)該說(shuō)蘋(píng)果仍將在中國(guó)獲利豐厚，但小米及華為等其他中國(guó)智能手機(jī)廠(chǎng)商帶來(lái)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)威脅正在加劇，蘋(píng)果需要嚴(yán)陣以待;與此同時(shí)，沖擊也不僅限于中國(guó)市場(chǎng)。

As Xiaomi expands its presence internationally, the popularity of its low-priced smartphonescould impact Apple in other large markets, too, especially those where per capita income is lowand a cheaper alternative to the iPhone is attractive.

隨著小米的國(guó)際化擴(kuò)張，其低價(jià)智能手機(jī)的火爆人氣也可能在其他幾大市場(chǎng)對(duì)蘋(píng)果造成沖擊，特別是在那些人均收入低、iPhone的低價(jià)替代品頗具吸引力的市場(chǎng)。

In India, for example, which is the fastest growing smartphone market, Apple only has a 2%market share because of a high price point, which makes it extremely vulnerable tocompetition. Xiaomi also has a modest market share of 4% so far. However, the importantmetric is that 64% of smartphones shipments during the fourth quarter were priced at lessthan $200, according to research firm Canalys. That’s a price range Xiaomi would find mucheasier to match than Apple.

以印度為例，這是全球增長(zhǎng)最快的智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)，但蘋(píng)果的份額只有2%，原因是iPhone價(jià)格較高，在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中不堪一擊。到目前為止，小米在印度的份額也只有4%。但Canalys公司指出，2014年第四季度，售價(jià)低于200美元的智能手機(jī)占印度智能手機(jī)出貨量的64%。和蘋(píng)果相比，小米更容易填補(bǔ)這一價(jià)格空間。

On the flip side, Apple could potentially benefit from regulatory hurdles that Xiaomi faces,such as in India where a court ruled that the Chinese company can’t sell phones that violateSwedish phone maker Ericsson’s patents until further hearings (although Xiaomi is temporarilyback on Indian e-commerce site Flipkart). Another factor in Apple’s favor is that its status asa luxury brand in emerging markets, combined with its marketing expertise, could enable itto keep market share despite higher prices.

但另一方面，小米面臨的監(jiān)管障礙有可能讓蘋(píng)果受益。例如，印度一家法院裁定，進(jìn)一步聆訊前，小米不得在印度銷(xiāo)售侵犯瑞典愛(ài)立信手機(jī)專(zhuān)利的產(chǎn)品(盡管小米的產(chǎn)品已暫時(shí)重返印度電子商務(wù)網(wǎng)站Flipkart)。另一個(gè)有利于蘋(píng)果的因素是，它在新興市場(chǎng)屬于奢侈品牌，再加上該公司的營(yíng)銷(xiāo)能力，有可能讓蘋(píng)果在產(chǎn)品售價(jià)較高的情況下仍有能力維持市場(chǎng)份額。

What all this means is that while Apple will certainly remain one of the dominant players in theglobal smartphone arena, emerging competition from aggressive low-cost technologycompanies like Xiaomi could still make a serious dent in Apple’s growth trajectory in some of itsbiggest markets.

總的來(lái)說(shuō)，雖然蘋(píng)果必將繼續(xù)在全球智能手機(jī)領(lǐng)域處于主導(dǎo)地位，但在某些最主要的市場(chǎng)，小米等新生力量積極采用低成本技術(shù)，將明顯削弱蘋(píng)果的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭。

Sanjay Sanghoee is a business commentator. He has worked at investment banks LazardFreres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, as well as at hedge fund Ramius Capital. Sanghoeeholds an MBA from Columbia Business School. He does not hold shares of Apple, Samsung,Xiaomi, or Huawei.

本文作者現(xiàn)為商業(yè)評(píng)論員，曾在投行拉扎德和德利佳華任職，還曾為RamiusCapital對(duì)沖基金效力，握有哥倫比亞商學(xué)院MBA學(xué)位。他本人并不持有蘋(píng)果、三星、小米和華為的任何股份。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))