隨著火箭發(fā)射變便宜 500強(qiáng)公司將競(jìng)逐"太空資源"

“這次離成功也就一步之遙。”

Behold the words of SpaceX founder Elon Musk,offering a post-op summary of the fiery crash-landing of one of his company’s first stage rocketboosters aboard a floating barge in the Atlanticearlier this month. It smacked of the billionaireentrepreneur’s typical comedic understatement.Video accompanying the comment, delivered in atweet, shows the rocket coming in too fast and toosteep before exploding in a magnificent fireball. Itwas a far cry from the soft landing Musk and SpaceX had planned.

請(qǐng)留意SpaceX公司創(chuàng)始人埃隆o穆斯克說(shuō)的這句話。1月初，該公司一枚一級(jí)火箭助推器拖著熊熊烈焰，墜落在大西洋的一個(gè)鉆井平臺(tái)上，他隨后發(fā)表了一番“行動(dòng)總結(jié)”。它聽(tīng)起來(lái)倒是很符合這位億萬(wàn)富翁一貫的語(yǔ)言風(fēng)格——很有喜感地輕描淡寫。這條發(fā)布于Twitter的評(píng)論還附帶一段視頻。從中可以看出，這枚火箭降落得太快太陡，隨即爆炸起火，變成熊熊火球。這與穆斯克和SpaceX公司當(dāng)初計(jì)劃的軟著陸相去甚遠(yuǎn)。

Most of the press called it a failure. Musk called it “close.” Experts familiar with the commercialspaceflight industry are calling it what it is: evidence that 2015 will be the year SpaceXmanages to successfully bring a first stage rocket booster and its nine rocket engines safelyback to Earth for reuse, potentially cutting the cost of space launch in half and upending thecommercial launch industry.

多數(shù)媒體認(rèn)為，這次發(fā)射徹底失敗，但穆斯克認(rèn)為它“接近成功”。熟知民用航天業(yè)的專家則給出了一個(gè)恰當(dāng)評(píng)論：很明顯， SpaceX公司將在2015年竭力回收一枚一級(jí)火箭助推器和它的9個(gè)火箭引擎，以重新使用。一旦成功，這將使得航天發(fā)射的成本減半，從而徹底顛覆商業(yè)發(fā)射業(yè)。

But lost in the whiz-bang awesomeness of rocket launches (and crashes) is the way SpaceX’sreusable rocket technology could impact industries beyond those associated with space, suchas telecommunications and imaging. The cost of space access could drop from its currentrange of between $65 million and $70 million to something more like $30 million, or even $20million, putting it within reach of companies and industries that couldn’t consider it before.

火箭發(fā)射(及墜毀)時(shí)驚心動(dòng)魄的轟然巨響背后，隱藏著巨大的成本，而這正是Space X公司的可循環(huán)火箭技術(shù)不僅將影響航空業(yè)，還將影響通訊和衛(wèi)星成像等其它行業(yè)的原因所在。依靠這種技術(shù)，太空探索的成本可能會(huì)從現(xiàn)在的6500萬(wàn)到7000萬(wàn)美元降至3000萬(wàn)美元左右，讓那些此前從未考慮過(guò)這種事情的企業(yè)和行業(yè)也能嘗試一下。

“When launch costs drop, new customers will emerge,” says Dick “Rocket” David, CEO of spaceindustry information provider NewSpace Global. “But most of the customers that will beinterested don’t even realize today what impact access to space will have on their businessmodels.”

NewSpace Global公司是一家航天信息供應(yīng)商，該公司首席執(zhí)行官迪克o戴維稱：“一旦發(fā)射成本下降，新客戶就會(huì)涌現(xiàn)。但很多潛在感興趣的客戶直到現(xiàn)在都還沒(méi)意識(shí)到，太空探索將對(duì)其商業(yè)模式產(chǎn)生什么影響。”

SpaceX wanted to bring its first stage booster back to Earth for a simple reason: the rocketboosters that are typically jettisoned after their fuel runs out cost millions of dollars to developand manufacture. If the company can return a stage to Earth intact for refurbishment andreuse, it can dramatically reduce what has long been considered a cost of doing business.

SpaceX公司想回收一級(jí)火箭助推器的原因很簡(jiǎn)單：推進(jìn)器的研發(fā)和制造過(guò)程都耗費(fèi)了巨資，燃料用盡后，它們就會(huì)被當(dāng)做垃圾丟棄。如果該公司能完整回收推進(jìn)器，翻修后重復(fù)使用，就能顯著降低航天業(yè)歷來(lái)被認(rèn)為高不可攀的巨額成本。

There remain questions: how much it costs to refurbish a rocket booster and how many timesa single booster can be reused, for example. And space industry analysts think costs could golower still. Musk has suggested that he’s eventually shooting for a sub-$10 million launchprice. But merely halving the cost of launch could stoke increased demand for launch servicesand bring a flood of new entrants into the orbital domain.

不過(guò)人們?nèi)杂泻芏嘁蓡?wèn)：比如，翻修要花多少錢?一枚推進(jìn)器能重復(fù)使用多少次?而航天業(yè)分析師認(rèn)為，成本還會(huì)不斷下降。穆斯克曾表示，他將全力以赴，最終讓發(fā)射價(jià)格降到1000萬(wàn)美元以下。但僅僅讓發(fā)射成本減半，就會(huì)帶動(dòng)發(fā)射服務(wù)的需求大幅增長(zhǎng)，從而使太空軌道迎來(lái)大批新成員。

How all this impacts the average Fortune 500 firm remains to be seen, but two things arealmost certain to happen in the near term. First, the services that companies and individualscurrently get from space will become better, less expensive, and more accessible, says CarissaChristensen, managing partner at defense, space, and technology consultancy Tauri Group.That’s not necessarily a groundbreaking development, but it’s certainly a meaningful one.Companies spend a whole lot of money on communications, imagery, and other data collectedand relayed by orbiting satellites. In some industries, the high cost of satellite services keepsmaller companies from competing as effectively with their larger counterparts. “Cheaper,cooler, and better things from space is kind of a big deal,” Christensen says. “The benefit ofmuch cheaper satellite services is not trivial.”

這些情況會(huì)對(duì)《財(cái)富》500強(qiáng)公司產(chǎn)生何種影響還有待觀察，但近期肯定會(huì)出現(xiàn)兩大新動(dòng)向。首先，國(guó)防、航天及科技咨詢公司金牛座集團(tuán)執(zhí)行合伙人卡瑞薩o克里斯滕森稱，企業(yè)及個(gè)人所獲得的航天技術(shù)服務(wù)會(huì)變得更加質(zhì)優(yōu)價(jià)廉，也更容易獲取。這也許不是什么巨大的突破，但一定是意義深遠(yuǎn)的進(jìn)步。目前凡是由軌道衛(wèi)星采集并傳送的通訊、影像及其他數(shù)據(jù)，各公司都要花大價(jià)錢才能獲得。在某些行業(yè)，衛(wèi)星服務(wù)的高昂成本使一些小型公司無(wú)法與大型企業(yè)有效抗衡?？死锼闺Q：“由航天技術(shù)提供的更便宜、更先進(jìn)、也更優(yōu)質(zhì)的服務(wù)將是一樁大買賣。價(jià)格更低的衛(wèi)星服務(wù)帶來(lái)的好處不容小覷。”

Second, a huge number of new entrants and new dollars will pile into the orbital domain—and infact already are. Just last week, SpaceX announced plans to build out a network of micro-satellites over the next five years that would blanket the globe in internet. This week thecompany announced that Google GOOG -3.10% and investment bank Fidelity FNF -0.80%have invested $1 billion in the project,valuing SpaceX at $10 billion. Another satellite internetstartup known as OneWeb—launched by Google’s former satellite internet project lead, GregWyler, who left the company in September—also announced last week that it has securedfunding from Richard Branson’s Virgin Group and Qualcomm QCOM -1.16% to create a satellitenetwork of its own. The $2 billion project plans to launch 648 small satellites weighing 285pounds each starting in 2018, each of which will require a ride into an orbit.

其次，大批新面孔和大量資本將涌入軌道領(lǐng)域——其實(shí)已經(jīng)是這樣了。就在上周，SpaceX公司宣布將在未來(lái)五年打造一個(gè)覆蓋全球的微型衛(wèi)星網(wǎng)絡(luò)。本周該公司又宣布，谷歌公司和投資銀行富達(dá)投資公司已對(duì)該項(xiàng)目投資10億美元，使SpaceX公司估值達(dá)到100億美元。另一家名為OneWeb的衛(wèi)星網(wǎng)絡(luò)初創(chuàng)公司——由去年九月從谷歌離職的前衛(wèi)星網(wǎng)絡(luò)項(xiàng)目負(fù)責(zé)人格里戈o惠勒創(chuàng)立——上周也宣布，該公司已獲得理查德o布蘭森的維珍集團(tuán)和高通公司的投資，并且將打造自己的衛(wèi)星網(wǎng)絡(luò)。這個(gè)耗資20億美元的項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃從2018年開(kāi)始發(fā)射648顆小型衛(wèi)星，每顆重285磅，而且每顆都需要進(jìn)入一個(gè)運(yùn)行軌道。

Analysts are optimistic that space launch activity will create new opportunities that could inturn further boost investment in the space.

分析師們樂(lè)觀預(yù)計(jì)，航天發(fā)射將會(huì)創(chuàng)造各種新機(jī)會(huì)，這反過(guò)來(lái)又會(huì)進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)航天領(lǐng)域的投資。

“Keep in mind that whenever you start launching more satellites, when you make launchservices cheaper and bring new players into the market, you have a lot of spinoff effects,” MarcoCaceres, director of space studies at aerospace and defense consultancy Teal Group. “Youhave an expanding market, you have submarkets. And you have investors taking a second, athird, a fourth look at companies like SpaceX and the ones that will follow. Venture capital willstart flowing back into the market like it did in the 1990s.”

航天及國(guó)防咨詢公司蒂爾集團(tuán)航天研究總監(jiān)馬可o卡塞雷斯稱：“請(qǐng)牢記，無(wú)論什么時(shí)候開(kāi)始發(fā)射更多衛(wèi)星，只要能大幅降低發(fā)射服務(wù)的價(jià)格，帶來(lái)更多新入行的企業(yè)，就會(huì)產(chǎn)生大量連帶效應(yīng)。這樣就能獲得一個(gè)規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大的市場(chǎng)和各種細(xì)分市場(chǎng)，還能使投資者認(rèn)真考量SpaceX及其他類似公司。風(fēng)投就會(huì)像1990年代那樣重新涌入這個(gè)市場(chǎng)。”

Emerging space companies are already baking lower launch costs into their business plans.Space is to the decade ahead what the Internet was to the 1990s, NewSpace Global’s Davidsays. It’s not necessarily going to upend your revenue streams tomorrow. But if you’re notthinking about how space access impacts your business and how to leverage it to youradvantage, you’re setting yourself up as the Barnes and Noble BKS -0.16% to someoneelse’s Amazon AMZN -0.94% .

新興航天公司已在自己的商業(yè)計(jì)劃里大幅降低了發(fā)射成本。戴維表示，在未來(lái)十年中，航天業(yè)的重要性就好比1990年代的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)。它并不會(huì)立刻顛覆傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)的收入模式。但如果不認(rèn)真思考航天探索將對(duì)自己商業(yè)模式產(chǎn)生的影響，以及如何充分利用這一趨勢(shì)，就會(huì)將自己置于巴諾書(shū)店當(dāng)年面對(duì)亞馬遜崛起時(shí)所處的那種境地。

“The challenge is understanding the impact something like a reusable first stage booster willhave upon a very terrestrial business model today,” NewSpace Global’s David says. “If you’reCoca-Cola, if you’re Walmart, if you’re Toyota, if you’re Lukoil—what does a satellite have to dowith your business model today? What will falling launch costs have to do with your businessmodel in the future? From our perspective, the companies capable of connecting those dotswill be able to capture tremendous financial growth opportunities. Those who fail tounderstand that connection to their very terrestrial business models could end up on thewrong side of financial evolution in the next decade.”

“挑戰(zhàn)在于，要理解可循環(huán)一級(jí)推進(jìn)器這類裝備對(duì)目前世界上盛行的商業(yè)模式的影響。如果你恰好是可口可樂(lè)、沃爾瑪、豐田、盧克石油這樣的企業(yè)，衛(wèi)星和你目前的商業(yè)模式有何關(guān)系呢?發(fā)射成本大幅下降與你未來(lái)的商業(yè)模式有何關(guān)系?在我們看來(lái)，那些能在這兩者之間建立聯(lián)系的企業(yè)將抓住大量增長(zhǎng)機(jī)遇，而那些無(wú)法理解這種關(guān)系的企業(yè)在未來(lái)十年可能會(huì)走下坡路，” 戴維稱。

Most companies don’t think of themselves as “space companies,” David says. But it’s hard tofind a company on the Fortune 500 that isn’t intimately connected to terrestrial assets—realestate, agriculture, transportation infrastructure, energy infrastructure, brick and mortarfacilities. The ability to connect all those assets in a proprietary way, to monitor them inrealtime and generate accurate and instantaneous information about them will ensure acompetitive edge for companies in the 21st century.

戴維表示，多數(shù)公司并不認(rèn)為自己是“航天公司”。但在《財(cái)富》500強(qiáng)企業(yè)中，很難發(fā)現(xiàn)有幾家是和陸上資產(chǎn)無(wú)關(guān)的——不管是房地產(chǎn)、農(nóng)業(yè)、交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、能源基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施還是實(shí)體建筑。能用獨(dú)有方式連接所有這些資產(chǎn)，實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)控它們并實(shí)時(shí)獲得精確的信息，將確保21世紀(jì)的企業(yè)獲得競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。

That’s especially true for firms who rely on fast, accurate information—and proprietary accessto that information—to generate revenue. “Is it obvious that someone like BlackRock or Apollowould care about having their own satellites?” David says. “I think if you were to poll most PEfirms and IBs on Wall Street they would say, ‘Space? You gotta be kiddin’ me.’ But what we’regoing to see in the near term as launch costs come down, as more satellites are lifted, is anincrease in knowledge at higher frequency. That’s going to lead to results that could changethe very nature of financial analysis.”

對(duì)那些依靠快速準(zhǔn)確的信息，并能獨(dú)家獲取這些信息才能獲得收入的企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，這更是真切無(wú)疑。戴維表示：“像貝萊德集團(tuán)和阿波羅公司這樣的企業(yè)想擁有自己的衛(wèi)星，這難道不是顯而易見(jiàn)嗎?我想，如果去問(wèn)華爾街上大多數(shù)基金公司和投行對(duì)此事的看法，他們肯定會(huì)說(shuō)，‘航天?開(kāi)什么玩笑。’”但在不久的將來(lái)，我們就會(huì)看到，隨著發(fā)射成本降低，更多衛(wèi)星上天，信息量將更快增長(zhǎng)。這將導(dǎo)致一些可能深刻改變金融分析本質(zhì)的結(jié)果。”

Whether or not Stamford-based energy traders will soon find themselves jockeying for thechoicest orbits from which to count oil tankers in the Strait of Malacca is anyone’s guess. Butthe takeaway from SpaceX’s most recent rocket recover “failure” is this: access to space isaccess to knowledge, and the next space race will be among companies vying to be a “spacecompany.”

位于斯坦福德市的能源貿(mào)易商們是否會(huì)競(jìng)相爭(zhēng)取最好的軌道來(lái)監(jiān)測(cè)馬六甲海峽的油輪數(shù)量，這誰(shuí)也說(shuō)不準(zhǔn)。但SpaceX公司近期火箭回收“失敗”的啟示是：占領(lǐng)太空就能獲得信息，下一輪太空競(jìng)賽將來(lái)自于那些競(jìng)相成為“航天公司”的企業(yè)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))