填飽90億人的肚子不是問題

Don’t Ask How to Feed the 9 Billion

填飽90億人的肚子不是問題

At dinner with a friend the other night, I mentioned that I was giving a talk this week debunking the idea that we need to grow more food on a large scale so we can “feed the nine billion” — the anticipated global population by 2050.

不久前和一位朋友共進(jìn)晚餐時(shí)，我提到自己要在本周發(fā)表演講，揭穿這樣一個(gè)誤解：只有大幅提高糧食產(chǎn)量，才能“填飽90億人的肚子”——90億是預(yù)計(jì)中的2050年全球人口。

She looked at me, horrified, and said, “But how are you going to produce enough food to feed the hungry?”

她非常錯愕地看著我，說道：“但如何才能有足夠多的糧食，讓餓肚子的人吃飽飯呢?”

I suggested she try this exercise: “Put yourself in the poorest place you can think of. Imagine yourself in the Democratic Republic of Congo, for example. Now. Are you hungry? Are you going to go hungry? Are you going to have a problem finding food?”

我建議她試著感受一下：假設(shè)你呆在你想得出來的最貧窮的地方。比方說，假設(shè)你正置身于剛果民主共和國(Democratic Republic of Congo)。那么你感覺餓嗎?你將會食不果腹嗎?找起食物來會有什么問題嗎?

The answer, obviously, is “no.” Because she — and almost all of you reading this — would be standing in that country with some $20 bills and a wallet filled with credit cards. And you would go buy yourself something to eat.

答案顯然是否定的。因?yàn)樗?mdash;—以及幾乎所有正在閱讀這篇文章的人——置身于那個(gè)國家時(shí)，都會揣著一些面值為20美元的鈔票，以及一個(gè)塞滿信用卡的錢包。你會自己去買點(diǎn)吃的。

The difference between you and the hungry is not production levels; it’s money. There are no hungry people with money; there isn’t a shortage of food, nor is there a distribution problem. There is an I-don’t-have-the-land-and-resources-to-produce-my-own-food, nor-can-I-afford-to-buy-food problem.

你和饑餓人口的不同之處不在于生產(chǎn)水平，而在于錢。不存在手里有錢卻在餓肚子的人;不存在糧食短缺;也不存在分配問題。真正的問題是，我既沒有自行生產(chǎn)糧食所需的土地和資源，也買不起糧食。

And poverty and the resulting hunger aren’t matters of bad luck; they are often a result of people buying the property of traditional farmers and displacing them, appropriating their water, energy and mineral resources, and even producing cash crops for export while reducing the people growing the food to menial and hungry laborers on their own land.

貧窮以及因貧窮而導(dǎo)致的饑餓不是因?yàn)椴蛔哌\(yùn)，這一切的源頭往往在于：有人攫取了傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)民的土地;占用了他們的水資源、能源和礦藏;他們甚至一邊生產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)作物用于出口，一邊讓糧食生產(chǎn)者在自己的土地上成了卑微、饑餓的勞工。

Poverty isn’t the only problem, of course. There is also the virtually unregulated food system that is geared toward making money rather than feeding people. (Look no further than the ethanol mandate or high fructose corn syrup for evidence.)

當(dāng)然了，貧窮并非唯一的問題。另一個(gè)麻煩是，當(dāng)前的糧食體系幾乎沒有受到任何監(jiān)管，其目標(biāo)為賺錢，而非養(yǎng)活人。(乙醇定量生產(chǎn)指令和高果糖玉米糖漿足以證明這一點(diǎn)。)

If poverty creates hunger, it teams up with the food system to create another form of malnourishment: obesity (and what’s called “hidden hunger,” a lack of micronutrients). If you define “hunger” as malnutrition, and you accept that overweight and obesity are forms of malnutrition as well, than almost half the world is malnourished.

貧窮在制造饑餓的同時(shí)，還和當(dāng)前的糧食體系一起制造了另一種形式的營養(yǎng)不良：肥胖(以及所謂的“隱性饑餓”——缺乏某些微量元素)。如果你把“饑餓”界定為營養(yǎng)不良，并且認(rèn)為超重和肥胖也是營養(yǎng)不良的表現(xiàn)形式，那么世界上幾乎半數(shù)的人都處于營養(yǎng)不良的狀態(tài)。

The solution to malnourishment isn’t to produce more food. The solution is to eliminate poverty.

解決營養(yǎng)不良問題的方法不是生產(chǎn)更多的糧食，而是消除貧困。

Look at the most agriculturally productive country in the world: the United States. Is there hunger here? Yes, quite a bit. We have the highest percentage of hungry people of any developed nation, a rate closer to that of Indonesia than that of Britain.

來看看世界上農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)水平最高的國家：美國。這里有人挨餓嗎?有，而且相當(dāng)多。我們國家的饑餓人口比例是所有發(fā)達(dá)國家中最高的，更接近印尼，而不是英國。

Is there a lack of food? You laugh at that question. It is, as the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner David Kessler likes to call it, “a food carnival.” It’s just that there’s a steep ticket price.

美國缺少糧食嗎?這是一個(gè)讓人發(fā)笑的問題。就像美國食品藥品監(jiān)督管理局(FDA)前局長戴維·克斯勒(David Kessler)喜歡說的那樣，這里簡直是在舉辦“糧食嘉年華”。只不過門票價(jià)格太高。

A majority of the world is fed by hundreds of millions of small-scale farmers, some of whom are themselves among the hungry. The rest of the hungry are underpaid or unemployed workers. But boosting yields does nothing for them.

世界上的大部分人口所需的糧食，是由數(shù)億小農(nóng)戶生產(chǎn)的，有些農(nóng)民自己也在挨餓。其余的饑餓人口是報(bào)酬過低或失業(yè)在家的工人。提高產(chǎn)量對他們毫無幫助。

So we should not be asking, “How will we feed the world?,” but “How can we help end poverty?” Claiming that increasing yield would feed the poor is like saying that producing more cars or private jets would guarantee that everyone had one.

所以我們就別再問“該如何養(yǎng)活世界人口”了，還是問問“該如何終結(jié)貧困”吧。主張通過提高產(chǎn)量來養(yǎng)活窮人，與宣稱生產(chǎn)出更多汽車或者私人飛機(jī)就能做到人手一輛(架)是一回事。

And how do we help those who have malnutrition from excess eating? We can help them, and help preserve the earth’s health, if we recognize that the industrial model of food production is neither inevitable nor desirable.

我們又該如何幫助因?yàn)槌缘锰喽鵂I養(yǎng)不良的人呢?如果能夠認(rèn)識到糧食生產(chǎn)的工業(yè)化模式既非不可避免，也非理想選擇，那我們就可以在幫助這些人的同時(shí)，幫助維護(hù)地球的健康。

The best method of farming for most people is probably traditional farming boosted by science. The best method of farming for those in highly productive agricultural societies would be farming made more intelligent and less rapacious. That is, the kind of farming we can learn from people who still have a real relationship with the land and are focused on quality rather than yield. The goal should be food that is green, fair, healthy and affordable.

對大部分人而言，最好的耕種方式或許是借助科學(xué)知識得到改進(jìn)的傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)耕方式。對農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)水平很高的一些地區(qū)的人而言，最好的耕種方式則是知識含量更高的、不那么貪得無厭的那種。即，我們可以從依然和土地真正連結(jié)在一起、依然關(guān)注品質(zhì)而非產(chǎn)量的人們那里學(xué)到的耕作方式。目標(biāo)應(yīng)該是產(chǎn)出綠色、優(yōu)質(zhì)、健康，而且便宜的食物。

It’s not news that the poor need money and justice. If there’s a bright side here, it’s that it might be easier to make the changes required to fix the problems created by industrial agriculture than those created by inequality.

窮人需要金錢和公正，這已經(jīng)不是什么新聞了。如果往好的一面看，那就是解決工業(yè)化農(nóng)業(yè)帶來的問題可能比解決不公正帶來的問題更容易一些。

There’s plenty of food. Too much of it is going to feed animals, too much of it is being converted to fuel and too much of it is being wasted.

世界上的糧食已經(jīng)足夠多了。多到可以拿很大一部分來飼養(yǎng)動物，可以拿很大一部分來制作燃料，可以拿很大一部分來浪費(fèi)。