聯(lián)合國(guó)警告應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化迫在眉睫

聯(lián)合國(guó)警告應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化迫在眉睫

COPENHAGEN — The gathering risks of climate change are so profound they could stall or even reverse generations of progress against poverty and hunger if greenhouse emissions continue at a runaway pace, according to a major new United Nations report.

哥本哈根——據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)新發(fā)布的一份重要報(bào)告，氣候變化匯集的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)如此巨大，如果溫室氣體繼續(xù)以失控的速度排放，有可能會(huì)讓幾代人在消除貧困和饑餓上取得的進(jìn)步停滯甚至逆轉(zhuǎn)。

Despite rising efforts in many countries to tackle the problem, the overall global situation is growing more acute as developing countries join the West in burning huge amounts of fossil fuels, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said here on Sunday.

政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)周日在這里表示，盡管許多國(guó)家為解決這個(gè)問題做出了更多的努力，但全球整體形勢(shì)日益嚴(yán)重，因?yàn)榘l(fā)展中國(guó)家正加入西方國(guó)家的行列來(lái)燃燒大量的化石燃料。

Failure to reduce emissions, the group of scientists and other experts found, could threaten society with food shortages, refugee crises, the flooding of major cities and entire island nations, mass extinction of plants and animals, and a climate so drastically altered it might become dangerous for people to work or play outside during the hottest times of the year.

這個(gè)由科學(xué)家和其他專家組成的委員會(huì)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，不減少溫室氣體排放會(huì)給社會(huì)帶來(lái)各種威脅，包括糧食短缺、難民危機(jī)、大城市和整個(gè)島國(guó)被洪水淹沒、動(dòng)植物物種大滅絕，以及氣候極大幅度的變化、以至于在一年中最熱的時(shí)候人們外出工作或玩?？赡軙?huì)有危險(xiǎn)。

“Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems,” the report declared.

報(bào)告宣布，“溫室氣體的繼續(xù)排放將導(dǎo)致進(jìn)一步變暖，將讓氣候系統(tǒng)所有組成部分發(fā)生持久性的變化，增加給人類和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)制造嚴(yán)重、普遍和不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的影響的可能性。”

In the starkest language it has ever used, the expert panel made clear how far society remains from having any serious policy to limit global warming.

這個(gè)專家委員會(huì)用迄今最嚴(yán)厲的措辭明確指出，人類社會(huì)距采取任何嚴(yán)肅政策來(lái)限制全球變暖方面還差得很遠(yuǎn)。

Doing so would require finding a way to leave the vast majority of the world’s reserves of fossil fuels in the ground, or alternatively, developing methods to capture and bury the emissions resulting from their use, the group said.

委員會(huì)說(shuō)，這樣做需要找到一種讓世界上化石燃料儲(chǔ)量的絕大部分留在地下的方法，或者找到捕捉及掩埋使用化石燃料所產(chǎn)生的排放的方法。

If governments are to meet their own stated goal of limiting the warming of the planet to no more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, or 2 degrees Celsius, above the preindustrial level, they must restrict emissions from additional fossil-fuel burning to about 1 trillion tons of carbon dioxide, the panel said.

委員會(huì)表示，各國(guó)政府要想實(shí)現(xiàn)他們自己表述的限制地球溫度上升的目標(biāo)，即溫度上升不超過工業(yè)化前水平的2攝氏度，就必須把燃燒更多化石燃料的排放總量限制在1萬(wàn)億噸二氧化碳左右。

At current growth rates, that budget is likely to be exhausted in something like 30 years. Yet energy companies have already booked coal and petroleum reserves equal to several times that amount, and they are spending some $600 billion a year to find more. Utilities and oil companies are still building coal-fired power plants and refineries, and governments are spending another $600 billion directly subsidizing the consumption of fossil fuels.

按照目前的增長(zhǎng)速度，這個(gè)排放總量很可能在大約30年內(nèi)用完。然而，能源公司已經(jīng)找到的煤炭和石油儲(chǔ)量相當(dāng)于這個(gè)上限的幾倍，而且他們每年還在花約 6000億美元(約合3.7萬(wàn)億元人民幣)尋找更多的儲(chǔ)量。電力公司和石油企業(yè)仍在建設(shè)燃煤電廠和煉油廠，政府為化石燃料的消費(fèi)還另外提供6000億美元的直接補(bǔ)貼。

By contrast, the report found, less than $400 billion a year is being spent around the world to reduce emissions or otherwise cope with climate change. That sum is smaller than the revenue of a single American oil company, ExxonMobil.

報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn)，與此相比，全世界每年花在減少排放或用其他方式應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化上的錢不到4000億美元。這個(gè)總數(shù)不及一家美國(guó)石油公司、?？松梨诠疽荒甑臓I(yíng)業(yè)收入。

The new report comes just a month before international delegates convene in Lima, Peru, in an effort to devise a new global treaty or other agreement to limit emissions, and it makes clear the urgency of their task.

新報(bào)告在世界各國(guó)的代表將在秘魯首都利馬集會(huì)前的僅僅一個(gè)月出臺(tái)，是為了促成一個(gè)限制排放的新全球性條約或其他協(xié)議，也明確指明了這項(xiàng)任務(wù)的緊迫性。

Appearing at a news conference in Copenhagen Sunday morning to unveil the report, the United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, issued an urgent appeal for strong action in Lima.

在哥本哈根周日上午為公布報(bào)告舉行的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上，聯(lián)合國(guó)秘書長(zhǎng)潘基文(Ban Ki-moon)對(duì)在利馬采取強(qiáng)有力的行動(dòng)發(fā)出緊急呼吁。

“Science has spoken. There is no ambiguity in their message,” Mr. Ban declared. “Leaders must act. Time is not on our side.”

潘基文說(shuō)，“科學(xué)已經(jīng)曉諭。其信息毫不含糊。領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者必須采取行動(dòng)。時(shí)間并不對(duì)我們有利。”

Yet there has been no sign that national leaders are willing to discuss allocating the trillion-ton emissions budget among countries, an approach that would raise political and moral questions of fairness. To the contrary, they are moving toward a relatively weak agreement that would essentially let each country decide for itself how much effort to put into limiting global warming, and even that document would not take effect until 2020.

然而，迄今還沒有跡象表明各國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人愿意討論如何在國(guó)家間分配這個(gè)1萬(wàn)億噸的排放總量，這種討論會(huì)引起有關(guān)公平的政治和道德問題。與此相反，他們正在采取行動(dòng)達(dá)成一項(xiàng)相對(duì)弱的協(xié)議，基本上讓各國(guó)自行決定為限制全球變暖做出多少努力，而且就連這個(gè)協(xié)議也只是在2020年才會(huì)生效。

“If they choose not to talk about the carbon budget, they’re choosing not to address the problem of climate change,” said Myles R. Allen, a scientist at Oxford University in Britain who helped write the new report. “They might as well not bother to turn up for these meetings.”

“如果他們選擇不討論碳排放總量，他們等于選擇不解決氣候變化問題，”幫助起草新報(bào)告的英國(guó)牛津大學(xué)科學(xué)家邁爾斯·R·艾倫(Myles R. Allen)說(shuō)。“他們干脆不用去開這些會(huì)議。”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a scientific body appointed by the world’s governments to advise them on the causes and effects of global warming, and potential solutions. The group was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, along with Al Gore, for its efforts to call attention to the climate crisis.

政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)是由世界各國(guó)政府任命的人組成的科學(xué)機(jī)構(gòu)，其作用是給各國(guó)政府就全球氣候變暖的原因和影響、以及可能的解決方案出主意。2007年的諾貝爾和平獎(jiǎng)授予了該機(jī)構(gòu)，獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)其呼吁人們關(guān)注氣候危機(jī)的努力，一起獲獎(jiǎng)的還有阿爾·戈?duì)?Al Gore)。

The new report is a 175-page synopsis of a much longer series of reports that the panel has issued over the past year, culminating a five-year effort by the body to summarize a vast archive of published climate research.

新報(bào)告共有175頁(yè)，是對(duì)委員會(huì)在過去一年中發(fā)布的一系列更長(zhǎng)報(bào)告的概要，委員會(huì)用了五年的時(shí)間對(duì)已發(fā)表的大量氣候研究文獻(xiàn)作了總結(jié)，新報(bào)告是這一努力的結(jié)果。

It is the fifth such report from the group since 1990, each finding greater certainty that the climate is warming and that human activities are the primary cause.

這是該機(jī)構(gòu)自1990年以來(lái)的第五份報(bào)告，每份報(bào)告對(duì)氣候正在變暖、而人類活動(dòng)是其主要原因的結(jié)論都比上一份報(bào)告給出更大的確定性。

“Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in global mean sea-level rise; and it is extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century,” the report declared.

新報(bào)告宣布，“人類的影響已在各個(gè)方面被檢測(cè)出來(lái)，在大氣和海洋的變暖中，在全球水循環(huán)的變化中，在冰雪量的減少中，以及在全球海平面的平均上升中。人類的影響有極大的可能是自20世紀(jì)中期以來(lái)觀測(cè)到的變暖趨勢(shì)的主要原因。”

A core finding of the new report is that climate change is no longer a distant, future threat, but is being felt all over the world already. The group cited mass die-offs of forests, including those in the American West; the melting of land ice virtually everywhere in the world; an accelerating rise of the seas that is leading to increased coastal flooding; and heat waves that have devastated crops and killed tens of thousands of people.

新報(bào)告的一個(gè)核心結(jié)論是，氣候變化已不再是一個(gè)遙遠(yuǎn)的、未來(lái)的威脅，而是已經(jīng)可以在世界各地感受到。委員會(huì)給出了大量的例子：森林的大量死亡，包括美國(guó)西部的森林;幾乎世界各個(gè)地方的陸冰都在融化;海平面的加速上升給沿海地區(qū)造成的更多洪災(zāi);以及導(dǎo)致作物毀壞、數(shù)萬(wàn)人喪生的熱浪天氣。

The report contained the group’s sharpest warning yet about the food supply, saying that climate change had already become a small drag on overall global production, and could become a far larger one if emissions continue unchecked. The reported noted that in recent years the world’s food system had shown signs of instability, with sudden price increases leading to riots and, in a few cases, the collapse of governments.

報(bào)告中還有委員會(huì)對(duì)糧食供應(yīng)發(fā)出的迄今最嚴(yán)厲的警告，報(bào)告說(shuō)，氣候變化已在一個(gè)小的程度上拖累全球的整體作物產(chǎn)量，如果繼續(xù)對(duì)排放量聽之任之，則可能成為一個(gè)大得多的問題。報(bào)告指出，近年來(lái)全球糧食系統(tǒng)表現(xiàn)出不穩(wěn)定的跡象，價(jià)格的突然增長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致了騷亂，甚至在個(gè)別情況下，導(dǎo)致了政府的垮臺(tái)。

Another central finding of the report is that climate change poses serious risks to basic human progress, in areas such as alleviating poverty. Under the worst-case scenarios, factors like high food prices and intensified weather disasters would most likely leave poor people worse off. In fact, the report said, that has already happened in some places.

報(bào)告的另一個(gè)重要結(jié)論是，氣候變化給人類本身的進(jìn)步帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重威脅，比如在消除貧困等方面。在最壞的情況下，諸如糧價(jià)過高和氣侯災(zāi)害增強(qiáng)等因素，有很大的可能使窮人陷入更糟糕的境地。報(bào)告說(shuō)，事實(shí)上，這已經(jīng)在一些地方發(fā)生。

In Washington, the Obama administration welcomed the new report, with the president’s science adviser, John P. Holdren, calling it “yet another wake-up call to the global community that we must act together swiftly and aggressively in order to stem climate change and avoid its worst impacts.”

奧巴馬政府在華盛頓表示歡迎新報(bào)告的發(fā)布，總統(tǒng)的科學(xué)顧問約翰·P·霍爾德倫(John P. Holdren)稱報(bào)告“又一次給國(guó)際社會(huì)敲響警鐘，我們必須一起采取迅速、積極的行動(dòng)，以遏制氣候變化，避免其最糟糕的后果”。

The administration is pushing for new limits on emissions from American power plants, but faces stiff resistance in Congress and some states.

奧巴馬政府正在推動(dòng)制定對(duì)美國(guó)發(fā)電廠排放的新限制，但面對(duì)來(lái)自國(guó)會(huì)和一些州的巨大阻力。

Michael Oppenheimer, a climate scientist at Princeton University and a principal author of the new report, said that a continuation of the political paralysis on emissions would leave society depending largely on luck.

普林斯頓大學(xué)的氣候科學(xué)家和新報(bào)告的主要作者邁克爾·奧本海默(Michael Oppenheimer)說(shuō)，在排放問題上的持續(xù)政治癱瘓將讓社會(huì)在很大程度上靠運(yùn)氣。