分析師評谷歌避走香港之舉

Google's decision to redirect its censored Chinese site to an unfiltered Chinese-language version of its service hosted in Hong Kong, appeared to make good on the Web giant's threat to stop open the floodgates on Chinese search results.
谷歌決定將其受審查的中國網站導向位于香港的未經過濾的中文服務，這一決定似乎實現了該公司停止對中文搜索結果進行審查過濾的諾言。

It also seems to be continuing to weigh a bit on shares Tuesday. Here's a smattering of some of the more thoughtful comments from analysts we've read on the topic.
看起來這個決定周二還繼續(xù)令谷歌的股價承壓。以下是一些較具深度的分析師評論：

Broadpoint.AmTech: 'Investor sentiment and the longer-term potential of China will be impacted by Google's decision to not censor results. The headline risk will continue around this issue as investors will now monitor the Chinese government's response to this change. As we state above, we expect Google.com.hk to be blocked at least as forcefully as Google.com itself has been blocked historically, and there is a chance that blocks will be more aggressive for Google.com.hk and all Google sites in the future.'
產業(yè)研究機構Broadpoint AmTech：中國的投資者人氣和長期潛力將受到谷歌停止審查搜索結果決定的影響。圍繞這一事件的首要風險還將繼續(xù)，因投資者現在會密切關注中國政府對這一變化的反應。如前所述，我們預計Google.com.hk會遭遇屏蔽，力度至少與Google.com歷史上曾經遭遇過的屏蔽一樣，而且將來Google.com.hk和所有Google站點還可能遭到更大力度的屏蔽。

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: 'It is now Beijing's move, however, we suspect a measured response of some kind which could limit Google's operations in China. On a positive note, Google should get some political goodwill from this move, and we continue to view Google as well positioned to benefit from a global economic recovery with margin upside opportunity to offset any losses from China.'
美國銀行/美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)：現在輪到北京方面走下一步了，不過我們猜測北京方面會拿出某種經過深思熟慮的反應，可能限制谷歌在華運營。往好的方面說，谷歌這次的舉動可能獲得政治上的好意，而且我們依然認為谷歌有很好的定位，將從全球經濟復蘇中獲益，有機會實現利潤的增長，從而抵消在中國的損失。

CLSA: 'Baidu will be the immediate beneficiary of Google exiting China as it is the only operator that can provide comparable services. Advertisers generally like Baidu's new advertising system, Phoenix Nest, which enables 'Broad March'. Advertiser links still show up, even if users input related keywords. Ad agencies estimate that about 30% of Google's ad budget may go immediately to Baidu. Ad agencies will also try to use soso.com and sogou.com as they do not want a single operator to take the entire market share.'
里昂證券(CLSA)：百度將成為谷歌退出中國的直接受益者，因為它是唯一一家能夠提供可堪與谷歌相比的服務的運營商。廣告商們大體上很喜歡百度新的廣告系統“鳳巢”，后者可以實現“寬泛匹配”。就算用戶輸入的只是相關的關鍵詞，廣告商鏈接也會顯示出來。廣告公司預計大約30%的谷歌廣告預算會直接落入百度手中。廣告公司還會試圖利用騰訊旗下搜搜網(soso.com)和搜狐的搜狗(sogou.com)，因為他們不希望百度一家獨大。

Jefferies: 'Google could decide to participate in China's growth through an equity stake in a local company (a la Yahoo!/Alibaba) or by expanding platforms such as Android and AdSense.'
投資銀行Jefferies：谷歌可能通過持股本土公司(如同雅虎與阿里巴巴)來從中國的發(fā)展中分一杯羹，或者是擴大手機操作系統Android和廣告系統AdSense等平臺。

Baidu does seem to be benefiting the most Tuesday. Its shares are up nearly 3%. Meanwhile, Google is breaking below its 50-day moving average.
從周二的情況看，百度確實是受益最大的。其股價上漲近3%。與此同時，谷歌跌破50天交易均價。